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Odds are, UK votes to stay in the EU

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Original post by gladders
You mean 'Project warn people of real dangers with tons of evidence and authoritative voices to back us up', versus Project Fantasy?


"Project warn people of real dangers with tons of evidence and authoritative voices"? You mean " project use dodgy analysis such as cost benefit taking only costs of exit and benefits of remain and backing it up with a ton of voices with bested interests in staying ".

How many endorsements of brexit, accepted by the campaigns, actually have a clear vested interest in doing so? What is the answer to the same question referring to remain?

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Original post by JezWeCan!
No, I mean Project Fear.

There is a great Private Eye front page this week. Check out Obama's bedtime story... :biggrin:

http://www.private-eye.co.uk/current-issue


Warning people that bad stuff may happen does not inherently make it scaremongering. But using it as a lazy way to evade debating and invent conspiracy theories shows the intellectual bankruptcy of the Leave campaign.
Original post by Jammy Duel
"Project warn people of real dangers with tons of evidence and authoritative voices"? You mean " project use dodgy analysis such as cost benefit taking only costs of exit and benefits of remain and backing it up with a ton of voices with bested interests in staying ".


No, that's LEAVE.

How many endorsements of brexit, accepted by the campaigns, actually have a clear vested interest in doing so? What is the answer to the same question referring to remain?


Without concrete evidence of vested interests, all you're doing is spreading disinformation. I could just as easily wonder what vested interests want the UK to leave the EU to line their own pockets, couldn't I? Or are vested interests good if they're on your side?
People accusing the remain campaign of "Project Fear" ought to try watching some of UKIP's campaign videos.
Original post by gladders
No, that's LEAVE.



Without concrete evidence of vested interests, all you're doing is spreading disinformation. I could just as easily wonder what vested interests want the UK to leave the EU to line their own pockets, couldn't I? Or are vested interests good if they're on your side?


Merkel: who picks up the bill when we leave, consequently who loses even more political capital and cannot afford to do so?
List of businesses: lobby EU with a few million, get beneficial legislation with a rate of return of about 800% and smother future competition
CBI: receives significant EU funding, unsurprising then that they misrepresented their polling to show overwhelming business support amongst businesses
Farming unions: they want the farmers to keep getting absurd subsidies and remain in the protectionist bloc because they know they cannot compete otherwise


How many of the doomsayers have been life long europhiles and got it wrong the last two times? How many of the people saying the country will be devastated if we leave said the same about the Euro? Who was wrong, are we in a state of high unemployment, low growth or is that the eurozone? How many of the naysayers said the same of leaving the ERM (or not joining in the first place)? Who was wrong then? The track record is poor and these people only know one strategy: to predict an oblivion they know will not come. Wasn't the IMF apologising a bit back for being wrong on austerity?

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(edited 7 years ago)
Original post by JamesN88
People accusing the remain campaign of "Project Fear" ought to try watching some of UKIP's campaign videos.


I don't recall UKIP being designated the official campaign, or for that matter even applying to be the official campaign.

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well, the UK voted against electoral reform so I wouldn't be surprised at their potential stupidity
Original post by HanSoloLuck
Quite literally, bookmakers are giving better odds on the vote to leave, I suppose 'better' is subjective.

You win more money, should you bet, if we vote to leave because bookmakers think it's the least likely outcome.

Is anyone tempted to place a bet ?

I was always thinking Brexit was likely, but bookmakers are putting their money where their mouth is and saying it's less likely. They have no axe to grind, makes me think the vote to stay is almost a certain.

I was under the impression the the polls showed Brexit to be favored, last time I checked it was 8 points ahead.......... go figure.
Skybet
Stay, 2/5
Leave 7/4

There are many, many more listings of odds in the link below, but they all read like this.

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result


I'm curious which poll had Leave 8% ahead. Telephone polls have a similar margin in the other direction (unless you've been looking at choice polls that exclude DK).

But yeah, i've never really doubted the result and see no reason to change tack even though i'm voting for Exit. I'll be putting money on the UK to stay by at least 6%.

Original post by fallen_acorns
Polls always swing to the 'new' option and away from the 'status quo' option before an election/referendum.

Scotland and the last UK referendum are great examples of this.

54% polling for leave, will translate to a comfortable win for remain on election day..

In reality, leave need to be trending at over 60% to become anywhere close to favorites.. but I cant see that happening


The problem with commenting above is that like most people you took that poll at face value without exploring the methodology, trend or whether it excluded DK.

There was indeed an ICM poll which had Out at 54% however that was a poll which excluded DK (never believe a poll that does not have a DK fugure) and the majority were against it.

Taking all pollsters the final polls i logged gave a result of 45Y, 49Y, 6DK. That was pretty good when you consider that people undecided in the final days will almost certainly vote against change (it's one of the reasons polling underestimated the Tories last year - almost everybody that was undecided in the final months stayed with what they know).

...

Results of telephone polls this month...

Comres: 45R, 38L
ORB: 53R, 41L
ICM: 48R, 41L
Ipsos: 49R, 39L
Comres: 51R, 40L
ORB: 51R, 43L
Survation: 45R, 38L

Now i've chosen to back telephone pollsters because of their performance in the last two general elections versus online polling. Even if i only go with Comres, Ipsos and ICM since those are the pollsters i trust on election polling (telephone pollsters had the Tories winning even if by too low a margin) and only take their most recent poll then that still gives an average of 47R, 39L, 14DK. While there's still time, i highly doubt those DK are going to board the train out in anything like sufficient numbers.

*Online polls are much closer which makes me doubt the extent of the lead (9%) but i still expect the telephone polls to be closest to the actual result.
Original post by Jammy Duel
Merkel: who picks up the bill when we leave, consequently who loses even more political capital and cannot afford to do so?
List of businesses: lobby EU with a few million, get beneficial legislation with a rate of return of about 800% and smother future competition
CBI: receives significant EU funding, unsurprising then that they misrepresented their polling to show overwhelming business support amongst businesses
Farming unions: they want the farmers to keep getting absurd subsidies and remain in the protectionist bloc because they know they cannot compete otherwise


Evidence that recipient of funds happens, and that said funds comes hand-in-hand with political support, please. The UK Government supplies private and public organisations with funds all the time and they are not guaranteed or obliged to support the government unswervingly. Again, put the tin hat away.

How many of the doomsayers have been life long europhiles and got it wrong the last two times? How many of the people saying the country will be devastated if we leave said the same about the Euro? Who was wrong, are we in a state of high unemployment, low growth or is that the eurozone? How many of the naysayers said the same of leaving the ERM (or not joining in the first place)? Who was wrong then? The track record is poor and these people only know one strategy: to predict an oblivion they know will not come. Wasn't the IMF apologising a bit back for being wrong on austerity?


These would be different from those who said that when Eastern Europe/Bulgaria and Romania/Mars joined the EU, we'd be flooded with immigrants? And different from those who called Maastricht the final straw and the UK would be a federal subject of the EU when it was signed? But then said the same with Amsterdam? Nice? Lisbon?

Utter alarmist claptrap - the original Project Fear.
Original post by BubbleBoobies
well, the UK voted against electoral reform so I wouldn't be surprised at their potential stupidity


The English are remarkably change adverse when you consider that we had the Tories for 18 years, Labour for 13 years, the Tories (probably for 15-20 years if Corbyn goes in 2020), that the North East voted against devolution, all but Bristol voted against mayors, the country overwhelmingly voted against electoral reform and now will probably vote to stay in the EU.
Original post by Rakas21
The English are remarkably change adverse when you consider that we had the Tories for 18 years, Labour for 13 years, the Tories (probably for 15-20 years if Corbyn goes in 2020), that the North East voted against devolution, all but Bristol voted against mayors, the country overwhelmingly voted against electoral reform and now will probably vote to stay in the EU.


in my opinion, the UK is stupid in that they complain and demand change, and then when change is finally offered to them, they ignore it
Original post by gladders
Evidence that recipient of funds happens, and that said funds comes hand-in-hand with political support, please. The UK Government supplies private and public organisations with funds all the time and they are not guaranteed or obliged to support the government unswervingly. Again, put the tin hat away.



These would be different from those who said that when Eastern Europe/Bulgaria and Romania/Mars joined the EU, we'd be flooded with immigrants? And different from those who called Maastricht the final straw and the UK would be a federal subject of the EU when it was signed? But then said the same with Amsterdam? Nice? Lisbon?

Utter alarmist claptrap - the original Project Fear.


Funds in which instance? I would assume that you are referring to the CBI in which case:
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/economics/article4262740.ece

And with regards to the UK government also allocating grants, last I checked most businesses weren't in a position to have people in their area withdraw from the UK, and I believe the support for Scotland remaining in the EU was overwhelming, and I imagine any body receiving significant funds from the UK government would certainly try to remain in the UK in the event of votes on secession.

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Original post by hazzer1998


Whats are your thoughts on the likely result?
Original post by Rakas21
Whats are your thoughts on the likely result?



Personally i think we will vote to stay something like

Remain-53%
Leave 47% ?
Original post by TheIr0nDuke
What do you think the leaflet distributed by the gov. (paid for with £9mil of taxpayers money, on top of the £7mil funding restrictions) was if not propaganda?

Newspapers advocating to leave are in the minority.

Threat of terrorism is a perfectly valid argument for leaving. Don't see why it shouldn't be mentioned.


I think its fair that people are informed of the facts - democracy is dependent on that. The papers spout their own agenda, so unbiased information is a fair countermeasure. Though I haven't personally seen the leaflet, I would be surprised if it was biased or particularly hyperbolic (unlike the newspapers that people seem to believe somehow educates them and informs their decision making).

I don't think that is the case personally regarding your suggestion that terror threat is a valid reason to leave.
The EU has resulted in peace between nations, and shared information and defensive capabilities. We would probably be worse off if we left in terms of security.
Besides, terrorism is most often from within.
Original post by hellodave5

The EU has resulted in peace between nations, and shared information and defensive capabilities. We would probably be worse off if we left in terms of security.
Besides, terrorism is most often from within.


*cough* NATO

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Original post by JordanL_
Sorry, what? How much money do you think the Daily Mail and all these other cancerous tabloids spend pushing the leave agenda? Which side is screaming about millions of jihadis getting in because we can't control our borders?


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Original post by Jammy Duel


Would you like a throat lozenge?
Reply 58
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Omen96
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I've put a bet on that it will be split 75 IN to 25 OUT or better and I'm an OUT voter
Reply 59
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Omen96
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Original post by hazzer1998
Personally i think we will vote to stay something like

Remain-53%
Leave 47% ?


That's ambitious. There's a large number of undecided who will all (or at least 99.9%) will vote to stay making it more around 70:30 or better

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