Odds are, UK votes to stay in the EU

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The English are remarkably change adverse when you consider that we had the Tories for 18 years, Labour for 13 years, the Tories (probably for 15-20 years if Corbyn goes in 2020), that the North East voted against devolution, all but Bristol voted against mayors, the country overwhelmingly voted against electoral reform and now will probably vote to stay in the EU.

Indeed every new government since the war has been re-elected at least once with the exception of the 1970-4 Conservatives.

Reply 61

TheIr0nDuke

Original post by gladders

So...bleeding...what? Address their points and criticisms, otherwise you're not debating at all.

And the notion that Farage, Gove and Johnson aren't establishment is hilarious.

Cuckold...? Do you know what that means?

And I do know the meaning. And you're committing it - instead of responding to their criticisms and concerns, you deem they can be ignored because they are 'establishment'. Well, perhaps I can deem you ignorable because you're mental.

Farage worked in business for twenty years. As for Gove and Johnson they are certainly establishment politicians, but I'm skeptical if they actually want a Brexit. Controlled opposition and all that.

Yes, I know what a cuckold is, cuck. That's not what an ad hominem is.

Mental for wanting my country to be sovereign again with control over its borders? Yeah, real mental. That was an ad hominem, pleb.

Reply 62

JamesN88

Original post by hellodave5

I think its fair that people are informed of the facts - democracy is dependent on that. The papers spout their own agenda, so unbiased information is a fair countermeasure. Though I haven't personally seen the leaflet, I would be surprised if it was biased or particularly hyperbolic (unlike the newspapers that people seem to believe somehow educates them and informs their decision making).

The EU has resulted in peace between nations, and shared information and defensive capabilities. We would probably be worse off if we left in terms of security.
Besides, terrorism is most often from within.

The security argument is largely irrelevant IMO, we won't stop cooperating on that front regardless of what happens. As you say the real threat is homegrown, whether that be lone wolves radicalised online or people returning from Syria.

We're lucky that our natural moat gives us a greater chance of intercepting returning Jihadists compared to the countries on the continent.

Reply 63

DorianGrayism

Original post by Omen96

I've put a bet on that it will be split 75 IN to 25 OUT or better and I'm an OUT voter

Well, you are going to lose your money. There is no chance of that happening.

Reply 64

Omen96

Original post by DorianGrayism

Well, you are going to lose your money. There is no chance of that happening.

I said "or better" so it accounts for even greater margins.

Reply 65

Jammy Duel

Original post by Omen96

I said "or better" so it accounts for even greater margins.

Still losing your money

Posted from TSR Mobile

Reply 66

Omen96

Original post by Jammy Duel

Still losing your money

Posted from TSR Mobile

I won't lose my money, I have full belief in the UK electorate losing their bottle to vote out come referendum day. The profit I will make will soften the blow of the IN win

Reply 67

nulli tertius

Original post by Omen96

I won't lose my money, I have full belief in the UK electorate losing their bottle to vote out come referendum day. The profit I will make will soften the blow of the IN win

If you bet on Remain to win, the chances are you won't lose your money. If you bet on them to win 75-25, you will lose your money.

Ladbrokes will give you 20/1 odds on that happening which in a two horse race are enormous.

Reply 68

HanSoloLuck

Original post by Senile Stranger

Source pls?

Original post by Rakas21

I'm curious which poll had Leave 8% ahead. Telephone polls have a similar margin in the other direction (unless you've been looking at choice polls that exclude DK).

Yeah, this ^^^. Found DM poll that said 9 point lead, no doubt the 8 point one I seen was from the same source. But even with bias factored in I didn't expect the lead to all but be conceded.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3433235/Brexit-campaign-given-9-point-lead-David-Cameron-kick-starts-EU-charm-offensive-Poland-Denmark.html

Reply 69

HanSoloLuck

Original post by Omen96

I said "or better" so it accounts for even greater margins.

You don't increase your odds by betting on everything less likely than your already improbable prediction.

It's like betting lightning will strike you twice, but the bet stipulates if you are hit by forked lightning you also win, counting as two hits......... it's absurd lol.

Reply 70

Omen96

Original post by nulli tertius

You guys must be deluded today. Firstly there is no "chance" that IN could win, it's guaranteed they will win, everyone is agreed OUT won't win. Secondly the margin has varied over months, it's entirely possible and considering the large number of undecided who will flock to the IN camp it will push the number even higher

Reply 71

Jammy Duel

Original post by Omen96

I didn't know that you were everybody, in fact a significant portion still believe that we could leave according to the bookies. If you want to chat **** at least try to be convincing in chatting ****.

Reply 72

JezWeCan!

Original post by Omen96

I said "or better" so it accounts for even greater margins.

Could you explain where you placed your bet?

I am looking at placing a spread bet myself so this is of interest to me.

Are you talking about this?

http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british/group_b.940e2917-bd4b-4e2b-951f-b7594fdfe4fc/uk-brexit-referendum

Reply 73

skunkboy

All British people should take many things into consideration before making final decision.

Whatever will be will be. The future isn't ours to see.

So always adapt to changes.:-)

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Reply 74

Alex from almanis

The Almanis prediction market (similar to a betting market) still has the odds of remaining at about 75%: http://app.almanis.com/#/outcomes/214 although the odds have shifted a bit recently, but over the last few months they have remained reasonably stead around 75%, or 1/3 for remaining. Forecast on the site if you disagree, and there's a decent chance you could win some prizemoney!