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AS Edexcel Geography Predictions

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The challenge of global hazards for the future:

Water shortages: drought and retreating glaciers means around half a billion people will experience water shortages. Poverty exacerbates this. Water needed for agriculture.

Food insecurity: climate change worsens famine in Africa, South America and South Asia. Falling crop yields. Rising poverty means fewer people an access food. Subsistence farmers.
Tacking the challenge:

Tree planting: carbon sink, time lag issues- mitigation.

Renewable energy projects- reduce fossil fuels. Small scale- solar panels and wind turbines.

Large scale schemes like The Three Gorges Dam in CHINA have environmental and ecological costs. But does provide green electricity along with flood control, irrigation and tourism.

Biofuels! Biodiesel usually made form soya beans which is added to normal diesel and bioethanol which is made from corn and sugar. Bad as rainforest destruction occurs to make biofuels.

Nuclear power is another option but has issues such as waste and safety.
Long term bottom up strategies:

Low carbon communities in WOLVERCOTE, OXFORDSHIRE. Also community forest projects are also widespread. Tajikistan benefits rom clean hydro energy.
Best way forward is ENERGY EFFICIENCY:

Greener industrial processes
Greener power stations
Green transport such as hybrid cars
Use of recycling
Biofuels..

BRICs may destroy all hard work to combat CC. They are rising economies with a joint population of over 3.5 billion people.
Reply 64
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/31/science/global-warming-antarctica-ice-sheet-sea-level-rise.html?_r=0

guyyssssssss good stuff for the tipping points, melting of Antartic, sea level rise effect on megacities ... published 30th march 2016
Going Global

Globalisation is the growing economic interdependence of countries worldwide through increasing volume and variety of cross-boarder transactions in goods and services, freer international capital flows and more rapid widespread diffusion of technology.

Interdependence suggests that in a globalised world, events in any one country will quickly spread to others.

The British Empire was a old global network.

There is economic, cultural, political, demographic and environmental globalisation.

Economics= TNCs, FDI and trade
Cultural= fast food like McDonalds, global news channels like CNN and fashion trends
Political- dominance of western democracies like G8 (meet do discuss global issues).
Demographic- results from increasing migration and mixing of populations
Environmental globalisation- involves the realisation that global environmental threats require global solutions (Kyoto Protocol)

Accelerated Globalisation?

Free trade, e.g WTO
International organisations like UN, WTO and trade blocs like NAFTA, EU
Communications technology- satellite and fibre optic communications have led to growth of mobile phones and internet use
Transport technology- containerization is linked to trade, cheaper air travel. Ships can carry over 9000 containers.
Consumers- the global consumer has contributed to soaring demand for goods from all over the world (Fiji water)
The media- large global corporations have a global reach and present a similar world view of the news

Opportunities

China has become wealthy through its exports- they rose to $1.2 billion in 2009
FDI has led to industrialisation, resource exploitation and property development- jobs created and wealth
Migration to economic hotspots like Dubai and Bangalore.

Drawbacks to Globalisation

Growing inequality- the rich have grown richer and the poorest are poorer
It is a process dominated by TNCs and governments and ordinary people feel like pawns (lack of unions, loss of jobs due to global shifts and exploitation of labor laws in developing nations)
Unsustainable economic growth at the cost of the environment
Westernisation- where local culture evaporates

POPULATION Movements

145 million legal economic migrants
20-30 million illegal migrants
15 million refugees
26 million displaced people

Illegal migration from Mexico to the U.S, illegal migration to the U.K via the channel crossing. Middle East faces illegal migration via economic migration from many south Asian countries
Original post by #Sabrina#
I was wondering the exact same thing, what if they make the questions really hard as its the last year of this course or what if they've become slightly easier.


Well there's only so many questions they can ask so the chances of previous questions being recycled (#sustainability#greenstrategies#earthsister) is pretty high
Reply 67
Original post by ImagineCats
Well there's only so many questions they can ask so the chances of previous questions being recycled (#sustainability#greenstrategies#earthsister) is pretty high

Do you think personally it will be easier? I'm so worried that there may be questions I can't answer like why do TNCs invest in certain countries, or El Niño/La Nina.
Global Groupings

Asian tigers like Singapore and South Korea have joined the rich group of countries retaining their dominance over the world.

Economic power is concentrated in THREE GLOBAL ECONOMIC cores of North America, Europe and Asia. Of the 500 largest TNCs in the world, 139 are based in the USA and 71 in Japan. The three cores are referred to as a TRIAD. Around 80% of all global wealth and trade is concentrated in this triad which is linked through a complex system of global finance, stock exchanges, international airports and government centers.

Economic Groupings

The rich NORTH and the POOR south (Brandt line). The world is becoming more complex than this.

LEAST developed countries (LDCs)- Somalia, Chad, Malawi and Haiti- Low income, primary industry provides 40%+ of jobs, development is slow. Dependent on primary industry. High levels of poverty, disconnected from the world.

LESS developed countries (LEDCs)- Egypt, Peru

RECENTLY industrialised countries- (RICs)- Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Tunisia- Lower middle income, high primary employment, manufacturing is growing rapidly.

NEWLY industrialised countries (NICs/ also known as BRICs)- Brazil, India, China, Russia, South Korea, Taiwan- upper middle income, 30+ of jobs are secondary and manufacturing exports important.

MORE Economically developed countries (MEDCs)- UK, USA, Central Europe, Australia, Singapore, Canada, Japan- high income, 70% of jobs are tertiary, TNCs are based here. R&D sector important, high Quaternary sector.

POLITICAL groupings

Groups where countries have signed agreements for economic gain.

EU- 28 European countries, formed in 1957, free trade and migration between, 31% of total GDP

OECD- 30 members- monitors economic performance and words to reduce corruption and bribery- global issues, 75% GDP between these 30 countries

OPEC- 12 major oil exportes- Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE etc- safeguards the interests of oil exporting countries. It has a large influence on the global oil price. OPEC have 65% of oil reserves and 35% of production- HUGE POWER

G8- UK, USA, FRANCE, JAPAN, GERMANY, ITALY, RUSSIA, CANADA- forum to discuss global issues- 65% of global GDP
G20 includes BRIC economies and other NICs.
G77- voice of developing nations , 131 in total- quite powerful- nowhere near as G8 power.

TRADE BLOCs

Formal trade blocs- NAFTA, ASEAN, EU allow free trade without tariffs and quotas. Countries not in the trade bloc often have to pay to trade with trade bloc countries.

WTO works to reduce trade barriers and encourage trade liberalisation.


The role of TNCs

Transnational corporations are major companies with a global reach and a presence in at least two countries. TNCs are economically powerful and politically influential and are important creators of wealth. TNCs like Walmart employ enough people to populate an entire city. Walmart has a global turnover of over 4 billion dollars equivalent to Norway's 2010 GDP.

Growing TNCs

TNCs focus on expanding their global operations in order to grow. This can be achieved in a number of ways:

Acquistions- Walmart expanded by taking over Asda
Joint ventures- Walmrt and Indian company Bharti announced plans to jointly open Bharti Walmart companies.
Franchising- 75% of McDonalds restaurants worldwide are franchises- local entrepreneurs pay fees to the parent company for the right to set up McDonalds.

McDonalds operates in over 119 countries worldwide and has over 35,000 outlets worldwide. A turnover of over 24 billion, over 1.7 million employees. Accused in the past of promoting deforestation for cattle grazing land, health issues over salt and sgar in food, low paid McJobs.
Reply 69
Original post by Alisha07
Do you think personally it will be easier? I'm so worried that there may be questions I can't answer like why do TNCs invest in certain countries, or El Niño/La Nina.


Range of atmospheric hazards - fog, drought and associated frequent wildfires.

El Niño La Niña oscillation: winter storms, especially during El Nino years lead to floods in the Los Angeles and San Gabriel rivers (with deforested hill sides).

El Nino is part of a cycle of approximately 7 years, in which 1-2 years occur as El Nino years and 1-2 occur as La Nina.

El Nino is defined as an abnormal warning of surface ocean waters in the Eastern Pacific

El Nino years, air currents move eastwards across the Pacific, brining moist air to South America and the eastern Pacific. The California coast is also affected by this current, bringing torrential rain causing floods and landslides.

In La Nina Years involve current reversing to move across the Pacific towards Australia, bringing moist air. Warm dry air blows over California from the American deserts, bringing drought and the threat of forest fires to California.

Summer drought problem in a Mediterranean climate, especially in Southern California, but more marked in La Niña years.

Advection fog occur when cool air from cold offshore current drifts inland and meets warm air (especially in Summer). Climate conditions combine with car pollution to generate photochemical smog which collects in the basin.

Landslides take place in heavy winter storms where hillsides have been burnt by wildfire and eroded.

Risk of erosion along coast near Malibu and Santa Monica (related to ENSO cycle).

Only sophisticated management prevents California from becoming a disaster zone (measured in mortality). NB prediction of earthquake activity is not possible even with technology. GDP $47 000 PPP


...
TNC's invest in some countries due to the incentives given by the government, large work force, resources needed to produce the good or services selling, what they already have eg. call centres in India as english is often their second laguage (e.g post colonial links), ports to make trade easier or larger target population to increase sales and what not.
McDonalds have paid efforts to reduce resource consumption. 30% of McDonalds packaging is now recycled and green restaurants have opened in New York and London.

McDonalds uses GLOCALISATION- They have adapted to new markets- spicy burgers in India, no beef in Indian chains, special Diwali and Eid food. In the UK McDonalds advertises all of its milk as organic and along with the beef it uses, everything comes from British or Irish farms.

POSITIVES OF TNCs-

Jobs, trade and connections:

Jobs- the 200,000+ technology workers in Bangalore are employed by TNCs including IBM and Google
Trade- China's economic growth has resulted in TNCs locating manufacturing plants in its Free Trade Zones, boosting exports
Connections- TNCs complex global networks create connections that tie local and national economies into the global economic system.

NEGATIVES OF TNCs-

Exploitation- TNCs have been accused of exploitating workers in the developing world by paying very low wages in "sweatshop" conditions
Unemployment- Outsourcing jobs to the developing world can lead to job losses in developing countries
Identity- Local cultures and traditions can be eroded by TNC brands and Western ideas.
Reply 71
Original post by A-LevelEconomist
Global Groupings

Asian tigers like Singapore and South Korea have joined the rich group of countries retaining their dominance over the world.

Economic power is concentrated in THREE GLOBAL ECONOMIC cores of North America, Europe and Asia. Of the 500 largest TNCs in the world, 139 are based in the USA and 71 in Japan. The three cores are referred to as a TRIAD. Around 80% of all global wealth and trade is concentrated in this triad which is linked through a complex system of global finance, stock exchanges, international airports and government centers.

Economic Groupings

The rich NORTH and the POOR south (Brandt line). The world is becoming more complex than this.

LEAST developed countries (LDCs)- Somalia, Chad, Malawi and Haiti- Low income, primary industry provides 40%+ of jobs, development is slow. Dependent on primary industry. High levels of poverty, disconnected from the world.

LESS developed countries (LEDCs)- Egypt, Peru

RECENTLY industrialised countries- (RICs)- Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Tunisia- Lower middle income, high primary employment, manufacturing is growing rapidly.

NEWLY industrialised countries (NICs/ also known as BRICs)- Brazil, India, China, Russia, South Korea, Taiwan- upper middle income, 30+ of jobs are secondary and manufacturing exports important.

MORE Economically developed countries (MEDCs)- UK, USA, Central Europe, Australia, Singapore, Canada, Japan- high income, 70% of jobs are tertiary, TNCs are based here. R&D sector important, high Quaternary sector.

POLITICAL groupings

Groups where countries have signed agreements for economic gain.

EU- 28 European countries, formed in 1957, free trade and migration between, 31% of total GDP

OECD- 30 members- monitors economic performance and words to reduce corruption and bribery- global issues, 75% GDP between these 30 countries

OPEC- 12 major oil exportes- Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE etc- safeguards the interests of oil exporting countries. It has a large influence on the global oil price. OPEC have 65% of oil reserves and 35% of production- HUGE POWER

G8- UK, USA, FRANCE, JAPAN, GERMANY, ITALY, RUSSIA, CANADA- forum to discuss global issues- 65% of global GDP
G20 includes BRIC economies and other NICs.
G77- voice of developing nations , 131 in total- quite powerful- nowhere near as G8 power.

TRADE BLOCs

Formal trade blocs- NAFTA, ASEAN, EU allow free trade without tariffs and quotas. Countries not in the trade bloc often have to pay to trade with trade bloc countries.

WTO works to reduce trade barriers and encourage trade liberalisation.


The role of TNCs

Transnational corporations are major companies with a global reach and a presence in at least two countries. TNCs are economically powerful and politically influential and are important creators of wealth. TNCs like Walmart employ enough people to populate an entire city. Walmart has a global turnover of over 4 billion dollars equivalent to Norway's 2010 GDP.

Growing TNCs

TNCs focus on expanding their global operations in order to grow. This can be achieved in a number of ways:

Acquistions- Walmart expanded by taking over Asda
Joint ventures- Walmrt and Indian company Bharti announced plans to jointly open Bharti Walmart companies.
Franchising- 75% of McDonalds restaurants worldwide are franchises- local entrepreneurs pay fees to the parent company for the right to set up McDonalds.

McDonalds operates in over 119 countries worldwide and has over 35,000 outlets worldwide. A turnover of over 24 billion, over 1.7 million employees. Accused in the past of promoting deforestation for cattle grazing land, health issues over salt and sgar in food, low paid McJobs.


Botswana, Africa slowly developing from LDC to LECD due to being mineral rich in diamonds (35% of Africa's supply and worlds leading supply of diamonds) still remains switched off due to governmental corruption and inequal wealth distribution.
Same for Republic of Congo = LDC but 34% diamonds, 13% copper of raw mineral ore deposits. Corruption and crime have lead to shut down of mining to prevent illegal activity.
Angola (in Africa) = LDC but part of OPEC due to being oil rich.
GLOBAL NETWORKS

Global connections tie the world together as never before, through:

Mobile phones, even in remote areas
Instant personal and business internet communication
Low cost jet air travel
Cable and satellite media channels
Favorite brands such as Coke, Nike, McDonalds

However its connectivity is not available to everyone. 6 billion people worldwide live on lower incomes. This disparity means some places benefit from global networks and become switched on while others remain poor and switched off.

SWITCHED ON:

The first commerical jetliner could carry up to 100 passengers. The 2007 airbus can carry up to 850 people. Easyjet and Ryainair have made air travel available to a wide market and are spreading to the developing world.

Increased air-travel reduces the perceived distance between places
Increases cultural mixing, transforming exotic places into normal experiences
Allows workers to move cheaply to areas of demand
Allows TNCs to move personnel and goods between production and sale locations

CORES & HUBS

Global HUBS are world cities or global regions. All are in the economic core areas of the world are centers of great wealth.

Hubs are extremely well connected to each other. For example, the financial, TNC and travel connections between London and Tokyo. Hubs act as regional nodes intergating the global economic cores such as the EU and connecting them to other cores. TNCs from hubs invest in emerging hubs, such as Bangalore in India and Shanghai in China, thus creating new connections.

Linkages between governments, TNCs and international organisations have produced a global super-rich class of media executives, lawyers and accountants who live in hubs and hop between them.
Reply 73
Original post by A-LevelEconomist
McDonalds have paid efforts to reduce resource consumption. 30% of McDonalds packaging is now recycled and green restaurants have opened in New York and London.

McDonalds uses GLOCALISATION- They have adapted to new markets- spicy burgers in India, no beef in Indian chains, special Diwali and Eid food. In the UK McDonalds advertises all of its milk as organic and along with the beef it uses, everything comes from British or Irish farms.

POSITIVES OF TNCs-

Jobs, trade and connections:

Jobs- the 200,000+ technology workers in Bangalore are employed by TNCs including IBM and Google
Trade- China's economic growth has resulted in TNCs locating manufacturing plants in its Free Trade Zones, boosting exports
Connections- TNCs complex global networks create connections that tie local and national economies into the global economic system.

NEGATIVES OF TNCs-

Exploitation- TNCs have been accused of exploitating workers in the developing world by paying very low wages in "sweatshop" conditions
Unemployment- Outsourcing jobs to the developing world can lead to job losses in developing countries
Identity- Local cultures and traditions can be eroded by TNC brands and Western ideas.


McDonalds
Glocalisation due to religious reasons e.g. do not eat meat, has lead to the McVeggie burger, taste preferences like in Thaliand (swapping beef with pork), climatic reasons e.g. uanble to grow certain ingredients for the food so alternatives offered.
Also 55% of ingredients sourced locally in the UK by 17'500 British and Irish farmers = positives reduces foodmiles and increase ethical publicity. Negatives = not as cheap as outsourcing (buying from developing countries), often lacks larger quanties.

Negatives of TNC's
..i think its Indonesia where it is law that workers are not allowed to protest for human rights.. hmm
Switched on through the internet and tourism

Around 2.5 billion people use the internet. Growth has been uneven creating a digital divide between the developed and developing world. The divide links to income levels because the internet requires a PC or Laptop, internet service providers, ability to pay for a connection and companies willing to invest in providing services such as online booking and shopping.

Internet is good:

education and health service
reduced isolation of rural areas
access to the best price for buying and selling goods
business opportunities such as online buying
exchange of political ideas

TOURISM

The internet may have reduced the need to travel but it seems to have increased the demand for travel. Instagram has 400 million users with many accounts promoting beautiful locations around the world. It allows exploration of distant places plus online booking of holidays, flights and tours. Tourism business has grown faster in the developing world than the developed as lower cost air travel and the desire for something different has led people to travel to more exotic locations. Some developing countries gain up to 40% of GDP from tourism e.g Cuba and Madagascar. Tourism requires less infrastructure than complex high tech industries and uses natural human and cultural resources already present in a region.

WINNERS & LOSERS

Developing countries depends on commodity exports for their income.
For example there are two types of bananas:

COLONIAL- from small farms in FORMER french, british and dutch colonies in Africa or the Carribean
DOLLAR- larger plantation growth bananas in latin america sold by american TNCs.
Reply 75
Original post by A-LevelEconomist
Switched on through the internet and tourism

Around 2.5 billion people use the internet. Growth has been uneven creating a digital divide between the developed and developing world. The divide links to income levels because the internet requires a PC or Laptop, internet service providers, ability to pay for a connection and companies willing to invest in providing services such as online booking and shopping.

Internet is good:

education and health service
reduced isolation of rural areas
access to the best price for buying and selling goods
business opportunities such as online buying
exchange of political ideas

TOURISM

The internet may have reduced the need to travel but it seems to have increased the demand for travel. Instagram has 400 million users with many accounts promoting beautiful locations around the world. It allows exploration of distant places plus online booking of holidays, flights and tours. Tourism business has grown faster in the developing world than the developed as lower cost air travel and the desire for something different has led people to travel to more exotic locations. Some developing countries gain up to 40% of GDP from tourism e.g Cuba and Madagascar. Tourism requires less infrastructure than complex high tech industries and uses natural human and cultural resources already present in a region.

WINNERS & LOSERS

Developing countries depends on commodity exports for their income.
For example there are two types of bananas:

COLONIAL- from small farms in FORMER french, british and dutch colonies in Africa or the Carribean
DOLLAR- larger plantation growth bananas in latin america sold by american TNCs.



key words.. ecommerce, telecommunication, outsourcing, offshoring, Cad/cam, comparative advantage, aquired advantage, protectionism, cumulative causation, multipler effect, technopoles, core, periphery, global hub..
switched OFF: the global periphery

Some peripheral locations have been bypassed by globalisation and remain switched off and seemingly trapped in poverty. Sub-saharan Africa and parts of South Asia, central south America and near the east. Investment has not occurred because of:

Political reasons- wars, conflicts and corruption
Lack of infrastructure
Physical constraints- climate
Location- far from coastal regions
Poverty and disease- produce a low-skilled workforce that would cost too much to train


KEY DEFINITIONS:

Global HUB- a node that is especially well connected
FLOWS- the connections between the hubs are known as flows and include money, information, people, goods and services and raw materials.

The CORE- The most developed and highly populated region of the country e.g London, Tokyo and Sydney. The growth of core regions is fed by flows of labour from less developed regions.

Switched ON places- Nations, regions or cities that are strongly connected to other places through the production and consumption of goods and services.

Wilderness areas- areas of the world that have remained largely untouched by man e.g Borne, Antartica (ironic since man induced climate change is ruining the Arctic).

Switched OFF places- lack global hubs, very poor, virtually no trade or investment. Examples include Chad. Why? Civil war, corruption, climate change, local of coastline for TNCs, lack of infrastructure, ethnic clashes and poor resources for agriculture.
Original post by _MILLI_
key words.. ecommerce, telecommunication, outsourcing, offshoring, Cad/cam, comparative advantage, aquired advantage, protectionism, cumulative causation, multipler effect, technopoles, core, periphery, global hub..


Good luck.

Any decent explanation of cumulative causation?
Reply 78
Original post by A-LevelEconomist
Good luck.

Any decent explanation of cumulative causation?


Why is adaptation a unpopular strategy?
Reply 79
Original post by A-LevelEconomist
Good luck.

Any decent explanation of cumulative causation?



Multiplier Effect: the 'snowballing' of economic activity. e.g. If new jobs are created, people who take them have money to spend in the shops, which means that more shop workers are needed. The shop workers pay their taxes and spend their new-found money, creating yet more jobs in industries as diverse as transport and education. OR process whereby one change sets in motion a sequence of events that result in decline or growth

Cumulative Causation: the process by which one region of a country becomes increasingly the centre of economic activity OR the process by which economic activity leading to prosperity and increasing economic development tends to concentrate in an area with an initial advantage, draining investment and skilled labour from the peripheral area (part of the backwash effect).

backwash:the effect where by an area (periphery) is drained of investment and skilled labour an area with an initial advantage (core)

this is what i found on tsr..

but to me it means.. " an area getting more economically advanced, leading to more development in that particular area..." e.g. very weathy city surrounded by slums

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