How lenient will they be?

Hey, so I'm currently taking my AS level exams I do english, psychology, gov&politics, but I am scared that I may not get the grades to apply for Business Management at Nottingham Trent. The course requires 280 ucas points (BCC) But I think with my AS levels I will get something like BCD . I know that these grades do not contribute to my overall a levels but I will have to declare them on my UCAS. However I don't want to apply to unis with lower entry requirements, then have to go through the stress of adjustment/clearing if my results are better, also I am quite reluctant to take a gap year. I am planning on taking some work experience this summer so hopefully I can put this in my personal statement. Sorry if I sound as if I think that I'm entitled, but I know I am very capable of meeting the requirements (I got 1A*, 5A's, and 4B's at gcse) , its just that I've messed up this first year of a levels. I'd be grateful on any sort of feedback, thanks