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I think Britain is going to remain in the EU.

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Original post by sleepysnooze
yeah what arguments?


I don't follow the debate religiously. I catch glimpses on the news and the radio. And every time, it's accusations of scaremongering but no actual positive forecast for what happens when we leave.
Original post by Alexion
I don't follow the debate religiously. I catch glimpses on the news and the radio. And every time, it's accusations of scaremongering but no actual positive forecast for what happens when we leave.


lmao what do you think would happen if we left? an apocalypse? :| why is switzerland doing so well economically from outside the european union? I don't think you have any idea about any of this, do you?
Original post by sleepysnooze
lmao what do you think would happen if we left? an apocalypse? :| why is switzerland doing so well economically from outside the european union? I don't think you have any idea about any of this, do you?


unless everything I've heard is a lie...
Original post by Alexion
unless everything I've heard is a lie...


probably :| I mean, you won't even let me know *what* exactly you've heard though, will you?
Original post by tanyapotter
Surely you should know by now the benefits of remaining in the EU? If you really want to understand, a simple google search will answer your questions.


There isn't any point in talking to some people. You can show as much evidence as you like but they won't listen.
Original post by sleepysnooze
yeah and I couldn't find any, not any that I would find credible - if the EU fosters massively protectionist policies, forcing consumers to prop up failing european companies and forcing them to pay for less efficient and more expensive products, how is that good? the EU traps us in this protectionist dungeon and if we were outside of it we wouldn't have to put up with it


Prices are lower because of EU membership - including flights and mobile phone charges - and the EU ensures that products entering the UK are up to European standard quality. Can you cite particular failing European companies that we are being forced to prop up?

Leaving the EU would cause an economic shock, and the renegotiation of trade deals in the event of a Brexit would take years. The UK being freed from EU regulation is hardly a thing to celebrate either as all we'd have to fall back on is our own untrustworthy Tory government to do their bidding as they please.
Original post by sleepysnooze
probably :| I mean, you won't even let me know *what* exactly you've heard though, will you?


tbh I can't remember any specifics to relay to you

all I remember is on multiple occasions feeling an overwhelming need to stick with the EU, and that it'd be a disaster if we left

maybe I'm being brainwashed :eek4:
Original post by tanyapotter
Prices are lower because of EU membership - including flights and mobile phone charges


oh my god. first of all, the EU has to pay money for an absence of phone charges. how else do you think these phone companies get their money in europe? :| you think they just choose to let everybody in the EU not pay those expenses just because they're lovely people? your taxes pay for it when they're transferred to the EU commission! so this is a meaningless point

and the EU ensures that products entering the UK are up to European standard quality. Can you cite particular failing European companies that we are being forced to prop up?


mandating certain "qualities" means that small businesses can't break into these industries very easily. again: that's protectionism. if you make it illegal to manufacture cheaper goods for cheaper prices, that is protection for the big corps. who make people pay more.

the EU would cause an economic shock, and the renegotiation of trade deals in the event of a Brexit would take years.


do you not understand that countries (or individuals within countries) can trade with or without a "trade deal"? :| trade doesn't happen because governments cause it to happen - trade happens because there are markets. the WTO stops unfair tariffs coming into play via political reasons - the EU wont be able to tariff us ust because they're upset that we've left their little club.

The UK being freed from EU regulation is hardly a thing to celebrate either as all we'd have to fall back on is our own untrustworthy Tory government to do their bidding as they please.


oh here we go - you're assuming that the tories will be in power forever and therefore we must never leave the EU because of this. you want the EU to protect you from UK democracy, ultimately.
Original post by Alexion
maybe I'm being brainwashed :eek4:


would it really be a surprise if you were? you don't even tell me why you believe that remaining makes sense, yet you believe in remaining anyway
Reply 49
Original post by sleepysnooze
because the EU runs on protectionism


We're a small island and in the top 5 largest economies in the world...doesn't seem to be doing us too much harm at the moment? If your argument is that protectionism renders trade with emerging nations difficult, the EU is such a huge bloc of potential trade that those countries will most likely end up being quite accommodating in order to get a piece of the action.

Being part of a large group gives us far greater negotiation power in terms of trade deals. Setting up our own ones would take years, and countries would surely rather spend that time making more fruitful deals with a large group of countries like the EU. Oh, and we need them more than they need us; we export far more than we import within the EU. Not to mention JP Morgan just today announcing that they may be forced to cut 1,000 jobs in the UK if we leave as our access to the single market is jeopardised...

Economically, it makes sense to stay.
This is our Commission President if we DO remain.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XPgiI46FCDU

Make you proud, doesn't it?

Still at least we can vote him out. Oh wait... :rolleyes:
Original post by sleepysnooze
oh my god. first of all, the EU has to pay money for an absence of phone charges. how else do you think these phone companies get their money in europe? :| you think they just choose to let everybody in the EU not pay those expenses just because they're lovely people? your taxes pay for it when they're transferred to the EU commission! so this is a meaningless point



mandating certain "qualities" means that small businesses can't break into these industries very easily. again: that's protectionism. if you make it illegal to manufacture cheaper goods for cheaper prices, that is protection for the big corps. who make people pay more.



do you not understand that countries (or individuals within countries) can trade with or without a "trade deal"? :| trade doesn't happen because governments cause it to happen - trade happens because there are markets. the WTO stops unfair tariffs coming into play via political reasons - the EU wont be able to tariff us ust because they're upset that we've left their little club.



oh here we go - you're assuming that the tories will be in power forever and therefore we must never leave the EU because of this. you want the EU to protect you from UK democracy, ultimately.

The price of food and products WILL rise if we leave. An amicable divorce is really unlikely and we can't just leave the EU but still have nonchallant access to the free market as all the leavers have suggested we will. They have no long-term economic plan this close to the referendum, and I don't think the British are buying it. The absence of fees paid to Brussels for EU membership is not going to be enough to compensate for the general economic meltdown due to the jobs lost after a Brexit. I cannot honestly understand how you don't see the economic blow that Britain will take if we leave.
Original post by Fudge2
We're a small island and in the top 5 largest economies in the world...doesn't seem to be doing us too much harm at the moment? If your argument is that protectionism renders trade with emerging nations difficult, the EU is such a huge bloc of potential trade that those countries will most likely end up being quite accommodating in order to get a piece of the action.

so you're basically just excusing protectionism for the sake of the EU..

Being part of a large group gives us far greater negotiation power in terms of trade deals.


so why do iceland and switzerland have free trade deals with china?

Setting up our own ones would take years, and countries would surely rather spend that time making more fruitful deals with a large group of countries like the EU.


you ultimately don't need trade deals to trade though. we have the WTO.

Oh, and we need them more than they need us; we export far more than we import within the EU. Not to mention JP Morgan just today announcing that they may be forced to cut 1,000 jobs in the UK if we leave as our access to the single market is jeopardised...


only 1000 jobs? I thought you'd tell me a million or something. who really cares about 1000 jobs? getting better trade will allow us to replace those eventually anyway. and JP morgan is a massive company, of course they can replace those jobs
Original post by tanyapotter
The price of food and products WILL rise if we leave.


how? explain this to me logically

An amicable divorce is really unlikely and we can't just leave the EU but still have nonchallant access to the free market as all the leavers have suggested we will.


well it would make no sense if they didn't seeing as we're their (perhaps former, if we leave) 2nd biggest member and contributing state - they'd lose massively if they (to some degree) blocked trade between themselves and us

have no long-term economic plan this close to the referendum, and I don't think the British are buying it.


you don't need a plan - you just trade. that's how this global economy works. nothing will stop trade. the WTO will prevent any absurd tariffs against us for political reasons

The absence of fees paid to Brussels for EU membership is not going to be enough to compensate for the general economic meltdown due to the jobs lost after a Brexit. I cannot honestly understand how you don't see the economic blow that Britain will take if we leave.


it probably will be though, won't it (if there even are such bad consequences - £40 million a day is a lot of money, ultimately)
Reply 54
Original post by sleepysnooze
so you're basically just excusing protectionism for the sake of the EU..



so why do iceland and switzerland have free trade deals with china?



you ultimately don't need trade deals to trade though. we have the WTO.



only 1000 jobs? I thought you'd tell me a million or something. who really cares about 1000 jobs? getting better trade will allow us to replace those eventually anyway. and JP morgan is a massive company, of course they can replace those jobs


1) Protectionism exists and always will. The WTO has been there for a long time yet tariffs are still ever present. It's ineffective as a deterrent and therefore the EU will always have barriers. The best scenario for us is to be on the right side of those barriers whether we agree morally or not.

2) Because they're separate from the EU. If China moves to trade with more influential European countries, its first port of call will be the EU rather than a single country. You also neglected to acknowledge the length of time associated with establishing the agreements - it's years of work that the UK could be in limbo for. Their deal with China is also arguably insignificant compared to what the EU gives us: unrestricted free trade.

3) Naïve response. JP Morgan is but one company; I was giving a specific example. Surely you can acknowledge that as thousands of firms take the same action, the effect on our employment would be detrimental?

And no, in a perfect world we would not need trade deals. But barriers exist, and legislation is required to ensure that they are permanently dropped and each country benefits.
I hate the EU however this government being bad enough to want to remain in the EU makes me believe it will not be able to handle itself well outside of it.
Original post by sleepysnooze
how? explain this to me logically



well it would make no sense if they didn't seeing as we're their (perhaps former, if we leave) 2nd biggest member and contributing state - they'd lose massively if they (to some degree) blocked trade between themselves and us



you don't need a plan - you just trade. that's how this global economy works. nothing will stop trade. the WTO will prevent any absurd tariffs against us for political reasons



it probably will be though, won't it (if there even are such bad consequences - £40 million a day is a lot of money, ultimately)


We are in a single market of 500 million people. Brexit will pull us out of this market. Less trade. Less investment. We become a poorer country. Shop prices go up. Inflation. Job losses. The pound falls. It's really not that difficult to understand. Do you not think EU countries could exploit negotiations if we leave, either? Can you imagine farmers agreeing to free imports on meat from France if we leave? Why would they?

And it's all very well to say it is in the best interest of EU countries to keep access to our market, but less than 8% of EU exports come to the UK, while 44% of UK exports go to the EU. It's just not going to happen the way leave campaigners say it will. Boris Johnson has very happily suggested striking up a deal like Canada's, but that hasn't even been enforced yet. It's taken nearly 10 years.

And you need to gain some perspective. Over 500,000 jobs could be lost. Our GDP will be 3.6% lower. EU membership is not doing more harm than good, and I don't get why you are refusing to understand this.

But each to their own.
Original post by XOR_
I hate the EU however this government being bad enough to want to remain in the EU makes me believe it will not be able to handle itself well outside of it.

That's fair. I think the majority of the British realise this and will rise to the occassion, hopefully.
Don't even get me started on the cutbacks to research and development if we leave - which will not only slow economic growth, but also the growth of knowledge and scientific progress. It's just a nightmare - I really, really hope we stay.
Best case scenario is Britain remains by a very narrow margin, then UKIP 2020 is almost guaranteed, otherwise the upcoming economic collapse this year could be blamed on Brexit.

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