If the result is Leave, will we leave?

I see you're new to FoS. This is what she does each and every time.

If we leave, a lot of the good graduate jobs in financial services industry will be gone. As well as a lot of big4 accounting jobs.


EDIT: I'm joking. London will still be a huge financial Center whatever happens. Singapore isn't in any fancy club but they're a large financial Center. We're still going to be geographically close to the EU and any economics downturns will be temporary. In the long term, the lack of bureaucracy and trade restrictions will probably help the economy to grow.

How we leave depends greatly on who replaces Cameron at the helm of the Tories. Provided it's somebody from the current cabinet and not a hard line skeptic or Remainer then something like the following will happen.. Gove will be dispatched to Brussels to negotiate our exit, his mission being to keep us in the single market while securing an opt out from immigration constraints.. after around 3 months negotiations will break down when the EU plays hard ball and wants us to accept free movement in return for the single market.. after another 3 months the government will start to look stupid and be thinking of 2020 so Gove will replaced.. the new guy will be instructed to capitulate on free movement to secure the deal, the deal is done within a year bar the technicalities, the UK leaves at the end of 2018 to join EFTA.

*Note that both sides will want to make it look good so instead of pure free movement we'll capitulate to something a minimum EU immigrant quota of a couple hundred thousand. The EU will say their citizens still get to come, the government will say they've secured a meaningful cap on immigration from the EU and probably get an exception for new EU members.

How we leave depends greatly on who replaces Cameron at the helm of the Tories. Provided it's somebody from the current cabinet and not a hard line skeptic or Remainer then something like the following will happen.. Gove will be dispatched to Brussels to negotiate our exit, his mission being to keep us in the single market while securing an opt out from immigration constraints.. after around 3 months negotiations will break down when the EU plays hard ball and wants us to accept free movement in return for the single market.. after another 3 months the government will start to look stupid and be thinking of 2020 so Gove will replaced.. the new guy will be instructed to capitulate on free movement to secure the deal, the deal is done within a year bar the technicalities, the UK leaves at the end of 2018 to join EFTA.

*Note that both sides will want to make it look good so instead of pure free movement we'll capitulate to something a minimum EU immigrant quota of a couple hundred thousand. The EU will say their citizens still get to come, the government will say they've secured a meaningful cap on immigration from the EU and probably get an exception for new EU members.

Pretty much this- but I think we'd have to pay contributions too.

We will also have to accept all EU regulations and most likely will remain part of the EU court frameworks.

So we end up after the whole thing with no serious change but no share in the decisions about what happens in the EU.

A good job well done by Farage, Gove, etc. Placing our future in the hands of bizarre extreme radical Tory ideologues for only superficial change to empower their egoistic zealotry and deranged fantasies.

Pretty much this- but I think we'd have to pay contributions too.

We'll certainly have to abide by about 25% of directives and ECJ will as now still enforce it. For me i'd be pleased with that though, we'd be out of CAP, we'd have a smaller net contribution and we'd withdraw from the CFP.



Yes. Norway scaled up suggests about £3bn but that's much less than our current net contribution.

I'm also getting round to quoting your earlier posts, i've not forgot.

The other thing about Norway is that its government's position is pay into every EU thing they can, if we scale up Switzerland the cost is lower, or Iceland it is lower again.

We won't get a Swiss deal (s). The complexity and sheer beaurocracy required is something the EU view as a mistake. We'll either have the Korean model (simple free trade - depends on a hardline skeptic being elected and willing to be out of the single market) or we'll have the standard EFTA.

I doubt we will get a trade deal like any of the ones that already exists, but the point I was making is that for Norway, Switzerland, and Iceland the cost, above the baseline cost, depends on what you want to be a part of, Iceland doesn't take part in much they don't have to, Norway pretty much everything, Switzerland somewhere in the middle.

Or do they? Many sources seem to think Cameron is really for Leave.

I think what is clear though is that the parts of the wealthy Right that have a clear interest in exploiting working people are all for Leave. When they talk about freedom, they don't mean for ordinary people - they mean the freedom to treat people like ****.

So what would actually happen? Would HMG steam in to battle, determined to remove us from the EU? Or something different?

My guess is there would be a prolonged period of 'negotiating the departure'. At the end of it, the government will announce that there are so many terrible consequences that having thought it all over, they think the best thing would be to remain in after all.

Thoughts?

If we leave, a lot of the good graduate jobs in financial services industry will be gone. As well as a lot of big4 accounting jobs.


EDIT: I'm joking. London will still be a huge financial Center whatever happens. Singapore isn't in any fancy club but they're a large financial Center. We're still going to be geographically close to the EU and any economics downturns will be temporary. In the long term, the lack of bureaucracy and trade restrictions will probably help the economy to grow.

I don't disagree that there are lots of possible variations.

The main point of my thread is that I am questioning what seems to be a trusting attitude on the part of many Leave voters that they can vote leave and then within a few months, we will be out of the EU. It's far more likely that there would have to be prolonged negotiations and if the Conservatives are in turmoil (likely) or replaced as the government (possible) then it is quite plausible that we would not leave.

I think your number (4) is highly likely and a second referendum would be offered after apparent concessions to the Leavers. There is ample precedent for this.

You've seen the reports tonight from the former UBS top economist saying sterling will drop 30% and equities 20% after withdrawal?

Singapore is in APEC which accounts for literally half of all international trade...

And you're making too many assumptions and speculations.

I choose:
-Leave, things getting better. Less pressure on our economy, lower tax charges and better control on amount of immigration