If the result is Leave, will we leave?

What about America, China, India? They aren't part of clubs like the EU. Oh, and Canada as well- they're doing very well compared to the UK and they are very independent.

America and are part of NAFTA and there is a reason they are pushing for the TTIP. China and India have bilateral trade agreements which are largely made due to their surplus trade balance - we are not.

Canada is independent??? Have you even heard of CETA ffs. You're clearly need to get your facts straight, this is pretty much an epitome of the entire brexit campaign.


I think when major banks have said jobs will be lost, money will be lost and have endorsed the remain campaign, the impact will not be positive if we leave. It's simple minded to think we can simply replicate the success of other countries that have done well (Canada for example took a very long time to get a deal that we will simply never get)

With many polls now suggesting a majority for Leave, I can't help but wonder what the real outcome of a Leave vote would be.

The law that created the referendum in no way binds the government to do any specific thing as a result. Cameron will not want to leave. Even if he immediately resigned and was replaced in an election by Bojo or Teresa May, there are no certainties. May is a Remainer and Boris was until about a month before the campaign and he saw an opportunity to defeat his old enemy Dave.

So what would actually happen? Would HMG steam in to battle, determined to remove us from the EU? Or something different?

My guess is there would be a prolonged period of 'negotiating the departure'. At the end of it, the government will announce that there are so many terrible consequences that having thought it all over, they think the best thing would be to remain in after all.

Thoughts?

But none of these trade agreements sacrifice freedom like the EU does. We'd be better off signing trade deals individually with countries rather than being part of the EU,forcing us to accept open borders, lose sovereignty and be run by unelected officials in Brussels. This doesn't happen in Canada.

Again, speculation. Canada got a deal that will never be given to another country, especially one that has left the EU. This is something they have confirmed. Bilateral trade agreements take a long time to set up and existing EU countries will be limited due to the protectionist nature of the EU trade bloc.

So you want us to be controlled by Brussels and lose sovereignty and independence just so that we can have a few trade deals?

I think the economic ramifications of leaving is greater than the negatives associated with our lack of sovereignty. There's always going to be an opportunity cost, just that it will be greater if we leave.

But the whole sovereignty issue is a different argument. One can argue that it isnt as bad as Brexiters make it out to be.

I see you're new to FoS. This is what she does each and every time.

Maybe so but I find it incredibly endearing*and can't believe how seriously it's being taken.

I mean is it seriously being suggested that some people could change their vote because of this !?

Anyway we are not voting leave and I urge FullofSuprises to keep the faith.

Only when the bookies are 6-4 or less for leave should she start getting depressed


*which I would assume she in turn finds incredibly annoying but still

Thank you Moggis.

I didn't deliberately set out to create a biased poll, they were just the random thoughts I had at the time about the likely possible outcomes. TSR isn't YouGov or the BBC, I don't need to be either completely objective or totally unbiased. Others are free to make their own threads or ignore this one.

One thing I don't think has been covered at all well in this campaign so far is the key factor causing many to consider a Leave vote - high inward migration.

Leaving will almost without doubt make this worse, not better. Does anyone seriously think that France will maintain the (grudging and shambolic) attempts at co-operation on this issue that they currently offer? If the UK leaves, all help at the French departure points will cease and it's completely predictable that their attitude will be to wave all migrants through to Britain as quickly as possible, with no UK customs presence permitted on their side of the border.

I think it's actually fairly likely that we will be looking at closing the Channel Tunnel under Leave conditions and possibly even closing the borders totally to many countries, creating tit-for-tat Visa wars and huge long-term headaches for British people wanting to travel abroad.

I think you are catastrophising the consequences of a Brexit to shore up support for your position and what's more I think you are being actively disingenuous in doing so.

There is absolutely no possibility of France dismantling this arrangement for the simple reason that it is not in their interests to do so because it would only attract greater numbers of migrants to the French coast. There is of course also the small matter that the treaties governing these arrangements are entirely separate to our membership of the EU. Every responsible senior party in France has been crystal clear about this as reported in The Guardian and The Telegraph.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/mar/03/calais-border-treaty-brexit-what-is-france-saying#img-

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/19/eu-referendum-what-will-brexit-mean-for-migration/

when will the economist ramifications be worth leaving to you? how much bigger of a super state will you allow the EU to become until you finally admit that it has become too powerful and undemocratic? this EU today is nothing but pure authoritarianism at its very core, and the president(s) is nothing but an idiot and a waste

also, I wouldn't know how there are too bad economic ramifications when the EU is a big fat sluggish protectionist nightmare, and that's what it has always been - a great big wall against international trade to the UK - we are trapped in a bubble of pure continental introspection - if we want a car from outside the EU, for example, the consumer must pay more because the EU decides that there should be tariffs on non-EU cars - how is that not corporatism? so much for worker's rights. workers don't lobby the EU. big business does

Leaving the EU will inherently have large economic ramifications. As far as im concerned, a threat of a recession so bad that we will never recover to the current stage is bad enough. If we lose our AAA rating (which the EU stabilises) we'll go bankrupt. The EU won't continue to become more powerful, if anything this referendum is a wake up call that people are getting fed up.

The same protectionist policies of the EU give protection to UK exports as well. Of course workers dont lobby the EU, the biggest problem with this referendum is that people like you are caught up with the EU being democratic that you fail to realise the UK is the same - you just dont listen.

The Telegraph article you quote directly supports my case:

"Leaving will not solve the migration crisis but bring it to Britain’s doorstep because border controls from the Continent will move from Calais in France to Dover in UK."

Not so, rather your response directly supports my case that you are conducting a deliberately disingenuous argument.

The quotation you use was not a conclusion of a commentator but a summary of one of the falty arguments of the Remain camp as part of a table listing the positions of both sides. As I have demonstrated and as is demonstrated in both The Guardian and The Telegraph's articles, this argument is a total non-starter for three main reasons:

Firstly that it is not in the French interests to dismantle the Calais border controls because it would only attract more migrants to the French coast

Secondly because the existing treaties governing this arrangement are entirely separate from the EU and breaking from them would therefore spark a major and mutually destructive international diplomatic furore

Thirdly because every responsible senior source in French politics has rejected the possibility of this happening whether we Leave or not.