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Latest You Gov poll shows 7% majority for Leave

Leave: 46% (+3)Remain: 39% (-3)Don’t Know: 11% (nc)Would Not Vote: 4% (nc)

Source: Guido Fawkes website

Yesssss!! We can really do this guys!

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Reply 1
Avatar for Asolare
Asolare
20
Silly, fairly obvious question, from myself - will there be an exit poll after the vote takes place like with the General Election? 'Cause if so, I think that's the only poll I'm going to be even seriously considering.
Reply 2
Avatar for Axion
Axion
15
Yes, the more likely Leave goes through, the more turbulent the markets are becoming and the more evident the economic impact is going to be. Over £110bn wiped off the Uk markets alone over the past week when Remain odds have shortened from 70% to 57%, and the markets starting to tank.

Still who cares right.... right?
Original post by generallee
Leave: 46% (+3)Remain: 39% (-3)Don’t Know: 11% (nc)Would Not Vote: 4% (nc)

Source: Guido Fawkes website

Yesssss!! We can really do this guys!


I love how this speaks words about the country's faith in politicians.

It's going to be very close, in my opinion, like with the Scottish referendum.
Reply 4
Avatar for generallee
generallee
OP
16
Original post by Inexorably
Silly, fairly obvious question, from myself - will there be an exit poll after the vote takes place like with the General Election? 'Cause if so, I think that's the only poll I'm going to be even seriously considering.


No.

Although big hedge funds are conducting private exit polls for trading purposes.
Reply 5
Avatar for generallee
generallee
OP
16
Original post by Axion
Yes, the more likely Leave goes through, the more turbulent the markets are becoming and the more evident the economic impact is going to be. Over £110bn wiped off the Uk markets alone over the past week when Remain odds have shortened from 70% to 57%, and the markets starting to tank.

Still who cares right.... right?


Traders care, and some will make a quick buck, others will lose.

But it will correct very quickly. Take a look at how the markets reacted to the various Greek bailouts. Panic for a couple of days then back to normal.
Original post by Axion
Yes, the more likely Leave goes through, the more turbulent the markets are becoming and the more evident the economic impact is going to be. Over £110bn wiped off the Uk markets alone over the past week when Remain odds have shortened from 70% to 57%, and the markets starting to tank.

Still who cares right.... right?


Change of course causes uncertainty, but change is short-term, and we'll recover a stronger economy and more principled country.
Multiple polls have shown this; that's why I'm so giddy. :colone:
Original post by XcitingStuart
Original post by Axion
Yes, the more likely Leave goes through, the more turbulent the markets are becoming and the more evident the economic impact is going to be. Over £110bn wiped off the Uk markets alone over the past week when Remain odds have shortened from 70% to 57%, and the markets starting to tank.
Still who cares right.... right?

Change of course causes uncertainty, but change is short-term, and we'll recover a stronger economy and more principled country.




Win-win situation.
Reply 9
Avatar for Axion
Axion
15
Original post by generallee
Traders care, and some will make a quick buck, others will lose.

But it will correct very quickly. Take a look at how the markets reacted to the various Greek bailouts. Panic for a couple of days then back to normal.


Yeah so no that's not how it works. As markets fall, companies become less able/willing to undertake equity funding. Traders will naturally always be on the end of some losses. In addition, the asset value of pension funds falls, which under Defined Benefit schemes leads to a pension deficit etc.

Who is to say it will correct very quickly? Nobody knows, and quite frankly the markets HATE uncertainty. I'd be very surprised if the UK market strengthened much if there is a Brexit vote.

In essence, a falling UK equity market is never good news. What makes you think that the market has got the economic readthrough wrong?
I think we'd be better inside but honestly I'm tempted to vote out just to see what happens.

I reckon we'll still join some form of union in the future - but probably with the US or Australasian nations.
Original post by Axion
Yes, the more likely Leave goes through, the more turbulent the markets are becoming and the more evident the economic impact is going to be. Over £110bn wiped off the Uk markets alone over the past week when Remain odds have shortened from 70% to 57%, and the markets starting to tank.

Still who cares right.... right?


Most international markets have seen a massive drop over the last week, it's nothing to do with increased chance of Brexit, or at least the majority of it isn't.
Original post by AnnieGakusei
I love how this speaks words about the country's faith in politicians.



Not just politicians but the entire rotten, establishment!

Barack Obama, David Cameron, George Osborne, Jeremy Corbyn and the entire Labour Party, Mark Carney, Christine Lagarde, the City, big business, Jean Claude Juncker, Angela Merkel, the Archbishop of Canterbury...

Your boys took hell of beating! Your boys took a hell of a beating!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PqZTP8-8wIs
Reply 13
Avatar for Axion
Axion
15
Original post by XcitingStuart
Change of course causes uncertainty, but change is short-term, and we'll recover a stronger economy and more principled country.


Again these are opinions. Under efficient market hypothesis, the value of a stock is equal to it's expected long-term cash flows, subject to a discount rate. The market is directly telling you, at the moment, that the impact of Brexit is to, ceteris paribus, reduce long-term cash flows of major UK companies.

There is zero evidence that we will recover a stronger economy. That is simply an appeal to 'patriotism'.
Reply 14
Avatar for inhuman
inhuman
2
Original post by XcitingStuart
Change of course causes uncertainty, but change is short-term, and we'll recover a stronger economy and more principled country.


:rofl:

What is up with this belief that somehow exiting the EU is like pressing reset in a computer game?
Reply 15
Avatar for math42
math42
20
Polls can be misleading. I think we'll remain.
Original post by Axion
Yeah so no that's not how it works. As markets fall, companies become less able/willing to undertake equity funding. Traders will naturally always be on the end of some losses. In addition, the asset value of pension funds falls, which under Defined Benefit schemes leads to a pension deficit etc.

Who is to say it will correct very quickly? Nobody knows, and quite frankly the markets HATE uncertainty. I'd be very surprised if the UK market strengthened much if there is a Brexit vote.

In essence, a falling UK equity market is never good news. What makes you think that the market has got the economic readthrough wrong?


I am a trader myself, I know how it works.
Original post by generallee
Not just politicians but the entire rotten, establishment!

Barack Obama, David Cameron, George Osborne, Jeremy Corbyn and the entire Labour Party, Mark Carney, Christine Lagarde, the City, big business, Jean Claude Juncker, Angela Merkel, the Archbishop of Canterbury...

Your boys took hell of beating! Your boys took a hell of a beating!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PqZTP8-8wIs


Even if we don't vote to leave, I hope the number who voted Leave is sufficient to cause a bit of a shake-up. There's nothing I like less than our current government.
Reply 18
Avatar for Axion
Axion
15
Original post by Helloworld_95
Most international markets have seen a massive drop over the last week, it's nothing to do with increased chance of Brexit, or at least the majority of it isn't.


US market has seen the least vs. Europe. The Brexit has been seen as shortening chances of an interest rate hike over there, which is good for stocks. But even it has started to pare back.

Some is of course down to economic data, but I have access to major research reports out of a couple of leading UK investment banks which have conducted research on fund managers across Europe on their stance re: Brexit, about concerns and things, and it's clear that Brexit is what is causing this drop. Very clear.

Capital flows tell you all you need to know in that regard.
Original post by Alexion
I think we'd be better inside but honestly I'm tempted to vote out just to see what happens.

I reckon we'll still join some form of union in the future - but probably with the US or Australasian nations.


Australasian nations? So basically NZ and Australia (all the other are irrelevant)

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