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Latest You Gov poll shows 7% majority for Leave

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Reply 280
Original post by Alexander24
That is just a reaction almost as a deterrent. The EU countries will not want to lose trade from us as they export our superior finance and insurance services and we import their goods ie food and manufactured products. We will most likely enter a free trade agreement losing little to no trade with them, whilst benefitting from less immigration and having to inject nothing into the EU budget. The only real issue is a potential brain drain as EU foreigners will now need VISAs. But if you take Australia as the example a lot of people still go there to live and work despite that


On the immigration point.

I think most leave campaigners would say that ~180k is still too much migration. That is what we currently allow in from outside the EU and would include a complete block on any net migration from the EU (which is obviously not a tenable assumption).

So I guess a valid question is; why if immigration is such a big issue, are we not capable of controlling the large numbers of immigrants from outside the EU?
Reply 281
Original post by moggis
Ok. Thanks.But they would have several years after Brexit in all likelihood to come up with the more important agreements and while I'm a wavering leave supporter (never thought I'd say that) and looking for reasons to vote remain ,I don't think that's enough.


TBH i'd be much happier if you come to your own decision :smile:. pretty sure that no single person has all the answers to every point, and I certainly don't. I guess a question for you would be what benefits as a person on the street, get from leaving the EU? Is your viewpoint about wanting to reduce net migration, or another issue?
Reply 282
Original post by Alexander24
That is just a reaction almost as a deterrent. The EU countries will not want to lose trade from us as they export our superior finance and insurance services and we import their goods ie food and manufactured products. We will most likely enter a free trade agreement losing little to no trade with them, whilst benefitting from less immigration and having to inject nothing into the EU budget. The only real issue is a potential brain drain as EU foreigners will now need VISAs. But if you take Australia as the example a lot of people still go there to live and work despite that


Trust me, as a holder of a first class degree from a top 10 uni but no job, there is no "brain drain". We are as smart as anyone. We are however unskilled, as the government is not training enough people in what is needed (ie. nurses, programmers) preferring to import talent. Not a brain drain, but a skill drain, and a skill drain will be good as it will force the government to train our population in skills, decreasing unemployment.

How people can say we need foreigners for their skills is beyond me. We just need to train the 1.7M unemployed in our own country in applicable skills. So, we have no nurses, we need 20k more, ok, pick 20k of the 1.7M(!!) without a job and frickin train them to be nurses. You improve 2 problems. I don't understand how this is so hard to grasp :,)
The burden of proof is on Leave, we know what the UK can do inside the EU.
Original post by Algren
Trust me, as a holder of a first class degree from a top 10 uni but no job, there is no "brain drain". We are as smart as anyone. We are however unskilled, as the government is not training enough people in what is needed (ie. nurses, programmers) preferring to import talent. Not a brain drain, but a skill drain, and a skill drain will be good as it will force the government to train our population in skills, decreasing unemployment.

How people can say we need foreigners for their skills is beyond me. We just need to train the 1.7M unemployed in our own country in applicable skills. So, we have no nurses, we need 20k more, ok, pick 20k of the 1.7M(!!) without a job and frickin train them to be nurses. You improve 2 problems. I don't understand how this is so hard to grasp :,)


Most countries now have a pool of people that it's hard to train to take on the jobs of a modern economy. We've had a big collapse in low-skilled jobs across the western world and the UK is no exception. In addition, a lot of those 1.7m people you talk about have multiple problems, things like disabilities, also addictions, anti-social problems, etc. The difficulties are major, not minor, otherwise we wouldn't have some hundreds of thousands of households where nobody has a job or has ever worked in them.
Reply 285
Er no its not. Short-term even the leave campaign agree that there is a negative hit, and that's even to some extent quantifiable.

I say that long-term, it could be postiive, it could be negative, but that's a completely unknown factor.

So short-term negative, long-term uncertain. That sounds pretty uncompelling for the leave campaign. Sorry, the burden is on the leave campaign to reason your statements. Else it's another in a long list of waffle statements:

We're the 5th largest economy....
They can't afford to not trade with us....

Like the other waffle statement about how the illusory £350m in savings can be diverted into all of:

Fuel VAT cuts
Reductions in Income Tax Rates
More funding for the NHS
Today - protecting University Grants and more school places
plus about 5 other commitments.

Of course, none or little of that would actually happen in the case of a Brexit, but it's the sort of meaningless waffle rubbish that is spouted to win over voters.
Original post by Algren
Trust me, as a holder of a first class degree from a top 10 uni but no job, there is no "brain drain". We are as smart as anyone. We are however unskilled, as the government is not training enough people in what is needed (ie. nurses, programmers) preferring to import talent. Not a brain drain, but a skill drain, and a skill drain will be good as it will force the government to train our population in skills, decreasing unemployment.

How people can say we need foreigners for their skills is beyond me. We just need to train the 1.7M unemployed in our own country in applicable skills. So, we have no nurses, we need 20k more, ok, pick 20k of the 1.7M(!!) without a job and frickin train them to be nurses. You improve 2 problems. I don't understand how this is so hard to grasp :,)


I feel like us OUT voters have a perfect counter argument for every in voter's point, but they just seem to change the subject when we pose a point. If we leave, we will finally be able to train those people by using the freed up money that we used to pour into the eu budget
Reply 287
Original post by Axion
Er no its not. Short-term even the leave campaign agree that there is a negative hit, and that's even to some extent quantifiable.

I say that long-term, it could be postiive, it could be negative, but that's a completely unknown factor.

So short-term negative, long-term uncertain. That sounds pretty uncompelling for the leave campaign. Sorry, the burden is on the leave campaign to reason your statements. Else it's another in a long list of waffle statements:

We're the 5th largest economy....
They can't afford to not trade with us....

Like the other waffle statement about how the illusory £350m in savings can be diverted into all of:

Fuel VAT cuts
Reductions in Income Tax Rates
More funding for the NHS
Today - protecting University Grants and more school places
plus about 5 other commitments.

Of course, none or little of that would actually happen in the case of a Brexit, but it's the sort of meaningless waffle rubbish that is spouted to win over voters.


Original post by Alexander24
I feel like us OUT voters have a perfect counter argument for every in voter's point, but they just seem to change the subject when we pose a point. If we leave, we will finally be able to train those people by using the freed up money that we used to pour into the eu budget


Ooo another one to add to the list.

More money for training workers. Heck this money goes a long way doesn't it!!!
Original post by Axion
On the immigration point.

I think most leave campaigners would say that ~180k is still too much migration. That is what we currently allow in from outside the EU and would include a complete block on any net migration from the EU (which is obviously not a tenable assumption).

So I guess a valid question is; why if immigration is such a big issue, are we not capable of controlling the large numbers of immigrants from outside the EU?


The difference is that the people from outside of the EU have to pay to be here and are more likely to inject into the economy or give the government tax revenue. Whereas the EU immigrants can freely move here and drain the economy. I have no issue with a sustainable level of immigration of the right kind of people, those being workers or learners.
Original post by Axion
Ooo another one to add to the list.

More money for training workers. Heck this money goes a long way doesn't it!!!


assume we do none of the above then, we will at least be in a position to start fixing the national debt. The budget deficit each year will go down as benefit payments fall as we are not obligated to pay to EU members and the EU members that stay will have to pay more taxes that they before avoided
Reply 290
Original post by Alexander24
The difference is that the people from outside of the EU have to pay to be here and are more likely to inject into the economy or give the government tax revenue. Whereas the EU immigrants can freely move here and drain the economy. I have no issue with a sustainable level of immigration of the right kind of people, those being workers or learners.


Alex, I suggest you read the consensus empirical evidence for EU immigrants and their impact on the economy.
Original post by Axion
TBH i'd be much happier if you come to your own decision :smile:. pretty sure that no single person has all the answers to every point, and I certainly don't. I guess a question for you would be what benefits as a person on the street, get from leaving the EU? Is your viewpoint about wanting to reduce net migration, or another issue?


Ha,as far as making my own decision is concerned you mentioned catastrophic consequences and so I thought I should establish what you meant by that.
I wasn't asking you to give me all the answers :smile: But I didn't want to one day look back and realise my ignorance or selfishness had helped bring about a catastrophe :frown:


Regarding the (rhetorical)questions that's what's so bloody hard for someone like me.(Well and others I presume)

I LOVE Poles and I don't mind immigration. However I have come to realise how utterly unfair the wide scale immigration has been to the poorest people in our society.

But then again why should I care more about the poorest in Britain than poor hard working people who come here to work and send money back to their families.

And that's just immigration. I don't think that I can bring myself to vote out even though I hate the EU.

Anyway sorry to go on and thanks again.
Reply 292
Original post by moggis
Ha,as far as making my own decision is concerned you mentioned catastrophic consequences and so I thought I should establish what you meant by that.
I wasn't asking you to give me all the answers :smile: But I didn't want to one day look back and realise my ignorance or selfishness had helped bring about a catastrophe :frown:


Regarding the (rhetorical)questions that's what's so bloody hard for someone like me.(Well and others I presume)

I LOVE Poles and I don't mind immigration. However I have come to realise how utterly unfair the wide scale immigration has been to the poorest people in our society.

But then again why should I care more about the poorest in Britain than poor hard working people who come here to work and send money back to their families.

And that's just immigration. I don't think that I can bring myself to vote out even though I hate the EU.

Anyway sorry to go on and thanks again.


Yeah it's a tricky burden of choice! I think, fundamentally, we're going to have immigration either way. 180k from non-EU sources and it's clear that, even though the government has wanted to reduce net migration, it's not a simple flick of a switch. Even if we cut EU migration by two thirds, we're still at 240k, and that probably wouldn't be enough for Farage and Leave Campaigners.

It does come back to public policy. It's hardly surprising to see public services struggling under demand pressures, when national policy is looking at Austerity. And whilst I totally understand why we are committing to austerity, and to some extent support it, it's wrong to then attribute the pressures solely back to EU membership.

Of course, the best case scenario is if the European countries that were savaged by the financial crisis recover - then it'd be reasonable to think that migration would be more widely dispersed among EU economies. The root causes of the crisis aftermath was down to poor internal public policy, and was compounded by EU level 'crisis solutions thereafter', but we can't escape the point that those crisis solutions were largely necessary and last-ditch.
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Original post by Axion
Alex, I suggest you read the consensus empirical evidence for EU immigrants and their impact on the economy.


I will when I have time. I assume though that it shows that EU immigrants contribute much more than than they withdraw overall. I appreciate that and if we leave, the Immigrants that contribute will likely stay as they get VISAs and the net withdrawers will more likely leave. Surely that is a win win?
Wait, the person's got a point, we should vote out so we can prove it was a bad idea.

You have convinced me with your stellar argument sir.
Original post by Algren
Trust me, as a holder of a first class degree from a top 10 uni but no job, there is no "brain drain". We are as smart as anyone. We are however unskilled, as the government is not training enough people in what is needed (ie. nurses, programmers) preferring to import talent. Not a brain drain, but a skill drain, and a skill drain will be good as it will force the government to train our population in skills, decreasing unemployment.

How people can say we need foreigners for their skills is beyond me. We just need to train the 1.7M unemployed in our own country in applicable skills. So, we have no nurses, we need 20k more, ok, pick 20k of the 1.7M(!!) without a job and frickin train them to be nurses. You improve 2 problems. I don't understand how this is so hard to grasp :,)


Yeah, so in the real world you cannot just do an "eeny meeny miny moe" on the unemployment list and then sign them up for a nursing degree!

There is a shortage of British people wanting to do a nursing degree ( why that is, is a topic for another thread!) and who are the ones wanting to be nurses in the NHS? Migrants. So to say that we are gonna force train 20k people to be nurses, as a substitute for migrants who actually want to care for people in our NHS, is a joke!
Original post by Algren
Trust me, as a holder of a first class degree from a top 10 uni but no job, there is no "brain drain". We are as smart as anyone. We are however unskilled, as the government is not training enough people in what is needed (ie. nurses, programmers) preferring to import talent. Not a brain drain, but a skill drain, and a skill drain will be good as it will force the government to train our population in skills, decreasing unemployment.

How people can say we need foreigners for their skills is beyond me. We just need to train the 1.7M unemployed in our own country in applicable skills. So, we have no nurses, we need 20k more, ok, pick 20k of the 1.7M(!!) without a job and frickin train them to be nurses. You improve 2 problems. I don't understand how this is so hard to grasp :,)

Mentioning that you have a first class degree doesn't add to your point, unless you state what degree you have. Obviously a degree in dance would limit your choices etc.
Plus the government does technically train us. It gives us loans to go to uni to get trained, and they give you a choice of what you want to learn to do. They cant be faulted because people either dont want to go to uni to train as nurses, or because people want to study History etc. instead of Nursing. The government gives everyone opportunities to train, but people squander those opportunities.
Also out of those 1.7 million, how many of them are smart enough or capable enough to be a nurse? And how many of those people WANT to nurses?
Original post by Algren
You decided to ignore the other 75% of my comment which was questioning the relevance of your graph and comments, and instead harped on the 25% which you could reply with "so what", which is exactly what I was saying about your point. Are you a politician by any chance?And sending me a big poster of simply a person stood on a diving board on a page of black reading "leap into the dark", ISN'T fear tactics I suppose?

Its simply logic, uncontrolled immigration is unsustainable, fill a glass of water, then keep the tap running and see what happens. In the EU, we cannot control immigration, therefore it is uncontrollable, therefore we are susceptible to a sudden influx caused by any number of natural or human caused factors, look back at you glass.

Personally, immigration isn't my chief concern anyway, just responding to your immigration "facts" which are irrelevant and bias.


#rekt
Reply 299
Original post by aidenj
Yeah, so in the real world you cannot just do an "eeny meeny miny moe" on the unemployment list and then sign them up for a nursing degree!

There is a shortage of British people wanting to do a nursing degree ( why that is, is a topic for another thread!) and who are the ones wanting to be nurses in the NHS? Migrants. So to say that we are gonna force train 20k people to be nurses, as a substitute for migrants who actually want to care for people in our NHS, is a joke!



Original post by NinjaOtter
Mentioning that you have a first class degree doesn't add to your point, unless you state what degree you have. Obviously a degree in dance would limit your choices etc.
Plus the government does technically train us. It gives us loans to go to uni to get trained, and they give you a choice of what you want to learn to do. They cant be faulted because people either dont want to go to uni to train as nurses, or because people want to study History etc. instead of Nursing. The government gives everyone opportunities to train, but people squander those opportunities.
Also out of those 1.7 million, how many of them are smart enough or capable enough to be a nurse? And how many of those people WANT to nurses?


You could easily tell the unemployment office folks who see every unemployed person once every two weeks that we have a shortage of nurses, thus lookout from within the 1.7M for anyone you think has the acumen for this role, if so approach them about the possibility of training for it. There would be people willing and people smart enough, the issues however are that A) nursing is seen as a poor doctor, and not for men, two awful stereotypes that I believe the government needs to work to correct. B) you now need a degree (which is a very recent change, weirdly coinciding with the rising shortfall of nurses) with pretty steep entry requirements if i remember right. So anyone older fancying this career must first raise 30k to get the degree. Importing is just easier than correcting stereotyping and then promoting people picking up the degree, the government doesn't realise that to fork out the cost of putting a few unemployed through this degree would in the long term save them money.

My degree is irrelevant, I wasn't trying to talk about me, just illustrating a point. If you're interested, I have 4 A-levels in Maths, chemistry, physics and biology, and a biology degree. You're right in some of what you say, they give us opportunities, however I believe the government could do more to promote the degrees that we are short of skilled workers for. However this would be a long term solution, whereas our government prefer the quick fix of immigration. I am from a very upper class family, but have grown up around working class, and honestly knowing a good few people struggling to pay their way, I do believe a lot would jump on the chance of training to do a steady job in demand which provides a semi decent wage.

We've got off topic here... I've already said immigration isn't my chief concern, but people keep bringing it back, so maybe it is just everyone else's chief concern. I guess my original point was, leaving the EU will not leave us with a "brain drain" as one man mentioned, merely a "skill drain", which could be easily corrected through some encouragement on the governments part for people to train in these professions, as we have the people available to do the jobs. Failing that, if we need to import workers we still can, immigration won't be stopped, we will simply be able to only import the skills we need.

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