If the result is Leave, will we leave?

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Reply 200

Grand High Witch

Original post by Fullofsurprises

Coming next: Cameron says he will take a Leave vote 'under advisement' but in no way be bound by it.

Still not happening.

Reply 201

Fullofsurprises

Original post by Grand High Witch

Still not happening.

Wishful thinking, wishful thinking.

Reply 202

Doones

Original post by Fullofsurprises

At the risk of sounding like "I told you so", Cameron announces he has no intention of quitting if there's a Leave vote.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/18/david-cameron-insists-he-will-stay-on-as-prime-minister-regardle/

Contrary to previous hints by him. :rolleyes:

Coming next: Cameron says he will take a Leave vote 'under advisement' but in no way be bound by it.

Hmm... I really can't see him staying even if he wanted to. It would effectively be a vote of no confidence.

Although it may be moot - the latest odds on Leave are lengthening.

Screen Shot 2016-06-18 at 21.19.46.jpg

(edited 7 years ago)

Reply 203

Grand High Witch

Original post by Fullofsurprises

Wishful thinking, wishful thinking.

On your part? Yes.

Reply 204

Jammy Duel

Original post by Fullofsurprises

Coming next: Cameron says he will take a Leave vote 'under advisement' but in no way be bound by it.

Not resigning doesn't mean he stays on as leader, especially if he ****s up the first week or two

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Reply 205

Rakas21

Original post by Jammy Duel

There is a distinction that has to be made between officially backing remain and backing remain, especially on the front bench where the difference is clear because the closet remainers never do anything in the referendum. The closest remainers are people who will vote to leave but want to stay on Cameron's good side; the ones openly leave don't give a **** about that and/or are actually relatively principled for an MP.

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In fairness May for example has displayed loyalty to the executive and its probably being beneficial for her reputation vs Boris who dithered, declared half for out (well technically he declared he wants a second referendum) and spent the first month getting bashed for it.

I certainly don't consider May more principled than Boris even if i want neither as leader.

Reply 206

Rakas21

Original post by jneill

I suspect he'd resign Friday morning personally but if he does not then his main card is that there's no unity candidate still standing that the party will rally around (Javid was made to look stupid by steel, Osbourne shafted himself with the budget, Boris made himself look an opportunistic dick). It was pretty wierd but interesting to see Mogg (pretty right wing) very genuinely saying that he wants Cameron to lead us through the exit negotiations (knowing they'll last years) and that really shows that even on the right, some MP's would rather have Cameron stay than an alternative at this time.

That said as a Tory supporter i'd rather the leadership election happens quickly, it'll be bloody and potentially damaging but it's about the final big thing that can derail them if Corbyn stays leader. Once it passes, the Tories just need the economy to be relatively okay and they have 2020 sown up.

Reply 207

username1148663

I've said remain would win throughout the campaign but I changed my mind the day before the MP was killed.

I've changed it back now remain will win there is always some overly emotional idiots who are easily swayed by this sort of stuff just look at the Aylan kurdi situation

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Reply 208

Naveed.178

[video="youtube;Wk0OkOL624U"]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wk0OkOL624U[/video]

Reply 209

Fullofsurprises

Original post by Rakas21

Lots of ifs there, but I think it's most plausible that Cameron will remain PM - there's nothing that can get rid of him if he has the majority of his MPs behind him, which he still will, as Leave is a minority sport even in the Tory Party.

The point of my thread was that given that Cameron will be staying, its very difficult to imagine a Leave negotiation being anything other than half hearted under his supervision. I suspect instead we would get a few more 'concessions' from the EU and then Dave would take that to a vote in about a year's time, with numerous apologies that we can't actually leave.

Time will tell.

Reply 210

Rakas21

Original post by Fullofsurprises

I believe that Cameron will follow through and leave, you can say many things about him but he tends to do what he says. That said i agree with you regarding the negotiations however playing devils advocate, that's not a bad thing. Remember that Cameron does not have to please all of the ~52% that vote Leave on Thursday, he just has to please the 30% that vote or are open to voting Tory because unless we get a Nulli scenario in parliament, he'll get the numbers to back a watered down deal.

Reply 211

Fenice

Original post by Fullofsurprises

There is a strong argument in voting Leave for precisely this reason. If we do Leave I think we will rejoin eventually under better terms. We are not going to get any real concessons from Brussels without demonstrating our willigness to use the nuclear option

Reply 212

Daddy Longlegz

Democracy is in essence a proxy for civil war. If leave wins, but we don't leave there will be more extreme rioting and violence than ever we could have anticipated.

Voting remain btw :yy:

Reply 213

Fullofsurprises

Original post by Fenice

That's been the view of some since the referendum was first mooted. To what extent it works as a strategy is hard to forecast. A lot depends on the things you care about and to what extent it's likely they would change. Also the argument has become something of a moot point given that we're not in the Eurozone and extremely unlikely to join it, essentially that means there are two EUs anyway already with the Eurozone group increasingly uninterested in the views of the non-Euro group.