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Latest YouGov polls - Remain back in lead by 1%

Morning all. Couple of polls in from our ever-busy internet pollsters YouGov.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/06/17/eu-referendum-remain-lead-one/

Remain average lead 1%.



The effect of Jo Cox's murder? Or the furore over Farage's poster?

Personally I always thought Remain would harden as the day approached and this appears to be supporting that view.

EDIT: YouGov say these polls were done before Jo Cox was killed.

"
While there will be speculation about whether this movement is connected to the tragic death of Jo Cox, we do not think that it is. The fieldwork for our Good Morning Britain poll was entirely conducted before she was attacked and a third of the responses to our Sunday Times poll were also done before news of her death was reported.The underlying figures suggest the movement may be more to do with people worrying about the economic impact of leaving the European Union. In the Sunday Times poll 33% of people said they thought that they would be personally worse off if Britain left the EU, up from 23% a fortnight ago and easily the highest we have recorded on this question.
"
(edited 7 years ago)

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How so you manage to male the leap to average 1pc lead, unless you're using the average of a single poll?

Posted from TSR Mobile
Reply 2
People naturally back what they know. I think many people will have a niggling doubt at the back of their mind that will lead them to vote remain on the day. Still I think the actual vote is going to hinge on who turns out on the day. The better educated are tending to vote remain and they tend to turn out, rather than the less educated who are generally for leave. Somewhat diluting this is the grey vote which seems to be towards getting out. Whilst I think we will vote to stay in it'll be close, I can't see it being much more than 5% either way.
Also don't forget the BBC Wembley debate tomorrow night at 8pm BBC1.

Original post by Aj12
People naturally back what they know. I think many people will have a niggling doubt at the back of their mind that will lead them to vote remain on the day. Still I think the actual vote is going to hinge on who turns out on the day. The better educated are tending to vote remain and they tend to turn out, rather than the less educated who are generally for leave. Somewhat diluting this is the grey vote which seems to be towards getting out. Whilst I think we will vote to stay in it'll be close, I can't see it being much more than 5% either way.


Yes, going across the demographics, I think the ways in which the pensioners vote matter, but also what REALLY matters is to what extent people like us turn out - the younger voters. There's a big Remain majority in polls amongst younger voters, but we HAVE to actually VOTE. :colondollar:
Too close to call.
Neck and neck favours remain as the undecideds will bote for safety.
Reply 6
Just got an intuitive feeling that there can't be any outcome but remain to be honest..nevertheless I will vote leave
Original post by 999tigger
Too close to call.
Neck and neck favours remain as the undecideds will bote for safety.


Apart from anything else, apparently there are still more than 20% undecided if you believe what the polls are saying. Both camps will be frantically trying to swing those people over during these last few days.
Original post by Fullofsurprises
Yes, going across the demographics, I think the ways in which the pensioners vote matter, but also what REALLY matters is to what extent people like us turn out - the younger voters. There's a big Remain majority in polls amongst younger voters, but we HAVE to actually VOTE. :colondollar:


Poorly. The weather forecasts are becoming more consistent with each other and with themselves over time, and the forecasts are for storms in key areas on the day, which means low turnout which is bad for remain, and the DKS are unlikely to break hard enough in favour of staying in that scenario.

Posted from TSR Mobile
Original post by Jammy Duel
Poorly. The weather forecasts are becoming more consistent with each other and with themselves over time, and the forecasts are for storms in key areas on the day, which means low turnout which is bad for remain, and the DKS are unlikely to break hard enough in favour of staying in that scenario.

Posted from TSR Mobile


Not sure about the weather thing. BBC Weather is currently showing London as sunshine and showers but quite warm and the Midlands and North of England similar. 18/20 degrees, light winds, showers.
Reply 10
"Hahaha, if we're going down you're coming down with us" -Yours dearly, the EU.
Reply 11
Original post by Fullofsurprises
Not sure about the weather thing. BBC Weather is currently showing London as sunshine and showers but quite warm and the Midlands and North of England similar. 18/20 degrees, light winds, showers.


Showers is all it takes.
Weather.com gives storms, as does the weather outlook.com, theweathernetwork.com; thundery rain from the met office; AccuWeather give rain most of the day, clearing up early enough you might get some extra last minute voters; metcheck give rain all day; etc

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Reply 13
So Leave wants the populace to ignore "experts" (economists, scientists, business leaders, the IMF, etc, etc, etc) because this is a political decision and "experts" can only advise and are not ultimately responsible for the decision making.

Unlike democratically elected representatives.

Spoiler

Reply 14
If you Anglobros vote to Leave the EU, I will never say a bad word about you in real life. I promise.
Reply 15
Original post by slaven
If you Anglobros vote to Leave the EU, I will never say a bad word about you in real life. I promise.


Very convincing. You've persuaded me.
Edit: I guess one last attempt for any undecides here and Remainers who are light on need-to-know info.

Brexit: The Movie explains the EU nicely. https://vimeo.com/166389884

It likely wont swing the vote either way TBH, but people need to know what they're voting for and this movie does it in an accessible way.

Original post by 999tigger
Too close to call.
Neck and neck favours remain as the undecideds will bote for safety.


I wouldn't call the EU safety, but I get what you're saying. :P

I hate to think how the untimely and pointless murder of a woman who was that unique of a politician--dutiful--has impacted the vote. I feel like if someone was wavering on the fence, such news would push them to Remain if only to disassociate (misguidedly although understandably) from a vote they now deem tainted by the far right.


Ah well. I'll be voting out regardless, and then we'll see where the fates lead us. I'll be disappointed but I'll have cast my vote for democracy, and if the UK chooses EU oligarchy along with it's other failings then that is the will of the country.
The EU hasn't made any secret of it's unwillingness to consider British interests or even humour reform away from anything but the federalist track so it's not as if Remain voters can claim to be uninformed or not to have known better when the EU inevitably becomes an issue of national debate again.

There's always a good chance the EU will continue to struggle and when the Eurozone implodes the whole thing will take care of itself and Britain will be Brexit by default.

In the mean-time I hope for no more political violence, and a happy polling day to all. :smile:
(edited 7 years ago)
Reply 17
Original post by jneill
So Leave wants the populace to ignore "experts" (economists, scientists, business leaders, the IMF, etc, etc, etc) because this is a political decision and "experts" can only advise and are not ultimately responsible for the decision making.

Unlike democratically elected representatives.

Spoiler



Many economist also said the Uk will develop new trading patterns if she leaves the EU. Liverpool was once the most important trading harbor for the UK, since the UK is in the EU it is destroyed.

So, Liverpool would become once more significant is the UK orientate its trading to China and other emerging markets.


Presumably this is just purely driven by what people actually bet, eg, it's basically an algorithm determining the odds? If so, it seems that all the smart money is on Remain.
Reply 19
Original post by jneill
Very convincing. You've persuaded me.


I am not the only one. Other countries would also wish to leave the EU (Denmark notably) but are awaiting a domino-effect, also somebody who will make the first step.

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