UK is Destroyed

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Original post by AverageExcellence

It was hardly your nugget of wisdom, it was plastered all over the media what the speculation would be lol. Its not like you predicted brexit, if you did you were better off putting your money on the bookies at a 12/1 odds.

Well, yeh, I said HSBC wrote it . I didn't say that it was my prediction.

Not sure when it was 12/1. It was always 4/1 on Betfair. I cashed out before, the MP's death.

(edited 7 years ago)

Reply 401

AverageExcellence

Original post by DorianGrayism

Well, yeh, I said HSBC wrote it . I didn't say that it was my prediction.

Not sure when it was 12/1. It was always 4/1. I cashed out before, the MP's death.

It was 12/1 when the Yougov exit poll came out at 10pm

Reply 402

DorianGrayism

Original post by AverageExcellence

It was 12/1 when the Yougov exit poll came out at 10pm

Really? Holy. I didn't know that.

Reply 403

moggis

Original post by AverageExcellence

It was 12/1 when the Yougov exit poll came out at 10pm

I heard paddy power was 1-12 for remain. Which bookie was 12-1 leave?

Perhaps you mean the exchanges?

Reply 404

AverageExcellence

Original post by DorianGrayism

Really? Holy. I didn't know that.

Yeah kinda sucked, i put 10 quid on hackney to be the biggest pro eu constituency on 4/1 but as the day progressed it got to 7/1

Reply 405

AverageExcellence

Original post by moggis

I heard paddy power was 1-12 for remain. Which bookie was 12-1 leave?

Perhaps you mean the exchanges?

Ladbrokes were doing bet as you go, and as of the Yougov poll at 10pm on the evening which was showing remain to win it spiked

Reply 406

moggis

Original post by AverageExcellence

Ladbrokes were doing bet as you go, and as of the Yougov poll at 10pm on the evening which was showing remain to win it spiked

Well if they were 12 -1 leave they would have been 1-20 remain at most.

I'm surprised that wasn't reported when the 1-12 was. But ok I take your word for it.

I must have been getting a can of lager out of the fridge to drown my sorrows or something.

(edited 7 years ago)

Reply 407

looseseal

Original post by Naomi265

I read this in a guardian comment, thought it was worth sharing:

If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.
Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.
With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.
How?
Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.
And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.
The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.
The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?
Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?
Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.
If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.
The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.
When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.
All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.

This doesn't sound very far from the truth at all. I don't think Boris truly expected the Leave campaign to win. Although he's long been quite critical of the EU and clearly on some level a member of the Eurosceptic wing of the Tories, he's never really shown much inclination to actually leave it. Especially not during his tenure as London mayor.

Everyone knew that this referendum was basically a play at the Tory leadership for Boris but the best outcome for him would've been a narrow remain vote. This could've potentially galvanised the Leave Tory MPs and possibly allowed Boris to come in as the uniting figure sometime down the line.

However now, the ball is completely in his court. And it's not a stable UK he has to take over but one in the middle of a crisis. It will take serious mental fortitude to lead the UK through this tumultuous time and I really don't think he has the stomach for it.

(edited 7 years ago)

Reply 408

moggis

Original post by looseseal

This doesn't sound very far from the truth at all. I don't think Boris truly expected the Leave campaign to win. Although he's long been quite critical of the EU and clearly on some level a member of the Eurosceptic wing of the Tories, he's never really shown much inclination to actually leave it. Especially not during his tenure as London mayor.

Everyone knew that this referendum was basically a play at the Tory leadership for Boris but the best outcome for him would've been a narrow remain vote. This could've potentially galvanised the Leave Tory MPs and possibly allowed Boris to come in as the uniting figure sometime down the line.

However now, the ball is completely in his court. And it's not a stable UK he has to take over but one in the middle of a crisis. It will take serious mental fortitude to lead the U£K through this tumultuous time and I really don't think he has the stomach for it.

Indeed. If what I read is accurate he would have been hoping for a narrow loss for leave as you say.

And if so I have to wonder just how useless our politicians are at predicting outcomes that affect the whole country's future.

They seem to be pretty useless gamblers.

Or ,more likely perhaps,they suffer from the overconfidence that arises from too much previous success .

(edited 7 years ago)

Reply 409

JK96

Original post by The_Opinion

In which case it should have to happen after Brexit has actually occurred, and the Scots know what our exact situation is, it makes no sense at all to want to leave, yet not know what they are actually leaving.

I agree it will have to wait for the 40 years' worth of legislation to be rethought and voted on. Although I don't see Britain reaping any minor chance of a net benefit until 5 years or more down the line once an equilibrium has been established. Considering that England's and Wales' general ideology differs vastly from that of Scotland, it yields great support for the SNP and their campaign of "us socialists vs those tories down South".

Plus the huge amount of uncertainty surrounding the UK's political affairs do not bode well for our trade - already the US maintains that we'll be at the back of line when it comes to sorting out trade deals (as they're dealing with the EU first) and HSBC are already considering shifting 1000 jobs to Paris. I mean China viewed the UK as an investment haven and a gateway to the EU for more trade beyond the current EU-China trade deal. If Scotland leaves, they could definitely take up that position with ease especially as China has already established the negotiations and infrastructure for it.

China will want to trade with us, don't get me wrong. But they see the EU as the more lucrative market and the first negotiating parter - the UK is just too uncertain right now.

Reply 410

PrincessZara

UK is destroyed. Agreed

Reply 411

Zarek

So, there is 2 years of negotiation before anything changes. Of course it's possible agree the changes, given time and effort and undoubtedly there are sufficient euro skeptic politicians up for doing it. I don't imagine UK is destroyed at all. The panic and political fall out is a bit worrying but undoubtedly is a transient phase. Personally I think the most depressing thing is that the media haven't been able to find a single leave voter who isn't a racist under achiever seeking to blame immigrants for everything. Undoubtedly we have chosen leave under false pretences.

Reply 412

PrincessZara

Original post by Zarek

help i cant sleep its too hot

Reply 413

Libtardian

EU will be lucky to survive 2 years, let alone in its current form.

Reply 414

snailsareslimy

I'm so scared for what this has in stall for Northern Ireland. For the first time in a long time, we'd found a certain level of stability, with sectarian violence being on the large being mostly confirmed to the Twelfth (and even then, every year seems to be slightly better than the year before). Companies have been investing in us, they've been setting up offices in Belfast, the creative industries are starting to really take off thanks to Game of Thrones, etc. It was all starting to take off. I graduated from university last year, took a year out to travel, and I've been starting to apply for my first graduate job. There were things to apply to, I had some options (not many, but some).

Now we're entirely screwed. We relied heavily on EU funding after the Troubles to rebuild the country, we still rely heavily on EU funding. It's essential. We rely heavily on subsidies for our agricultural industries for farmers to even break even nowadays. That's all gone. I know lots of people will say "we have more money now that we aren't paying into the EU, we'll use that", but it'll be controlled from Westminster. Will they assign money to different sectors as a whole, or give every government in Wales, Northern Ireland, and Scotland a sum for them to split as they wish? How will we have any say in how this money is assigned? Who is to say that 50% of this money doesn't go on defence (if ISIS are such a big threat as Brexiters say they/Muslims/immigrants/refugees are, that's not even an entirely unbelievable statistic). What happens if they want to put the money into their more "important" industries, and leave regeneration of poor areas, subsidies for primary industries, etc, out of the loop? Who is going to hold them accountable? At least with the EU everyone had guaranteed grants for guaranteed sectors. My dad, a farmer, knew he'd get a cheque every year, for the (roughly) same amount of money, and he could pay a lot of bills with it. He didn't get the CAP payment and go wild, he didn't waste it- he simply used it to break even, because the agricultural industry is a mess, but that's a whole different rant.

I'm worried about trade links. We aren't a country which exports a lot, but we need to keep exporting what we already do. I'm worried for so many businesses. Again, I'll use an agriculture example. France are one of the biggest buyers for lambs from NI/GB. If we are a separate country, why would they bother paying higher fees to import from us? It makes economic sense for them to get them from elsewhere, without the fees. Of course, to make our produce more 'appetising', we could drop the price... Oh yes, then farmers will be working for nothing. So that can't work. Oh, maybe we could establish free trade deals... but that will come at the expense of free movement of people. What many people have voted out of the EU precisely for.

I'm not going to pretend I know much about economics, but I worry for so many people. I worry for our human rights (us in Northern Ireland are still trying to get an abortion law passed. Without the EU, it'll never happen. Hundreds of women have to risk prison if they can't afford to travel to England, this breaks my heart). I worry for our industries. I worry for our young people, now that we've cut ourselves off from a Europe which was vibrant and had just started to break out of the recession we too, faced. There's so many experiences to be had in Europe, and I don't just mean holidays (which will likely be more expensive and full of visas, now). There were job opportunities. Erasmus was something a lot of my friends did during their respective university experiences, and they loved it. What about generally wanting to experience other cultures? I went interrailing last summer, and it was one of the most fulfilling and wonderful experiences of my life.

And on top of all that, I worry that Northern Ireland is going to be plunged into another period of street violence now that the border issue has been firmly raised again. I'm an economic unionist, and if we leave the EU, I want a United Ireland. But not everyone has my opinions, and many people will happily die to remain 'British'.

All of this was unnecessary. I don't want to be over the top and dramatic, but these are very real fears of mine. They aren't the fears of those who voted 'Leave' on the basis of immigration. They don't care as long as they can live in their exclusively white communities. I just... can't. This mess.

Anyway, I signed the EU Referendum petition. You'll probably have seen the link, before, but here it is:
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215

I'm not even sure if I agree with having a second referendum (democracy is democracy), but I feel like this is the wrong decision, and I want MPs and experts to look at this case again. Even if we delay leaving for 5 years and try to renegotiate EU terms, I just want something, anything, that doesn't mean we'll be leaving the EU come October. I don't want to see Northern Ireland ripped apart again, nor do I want to see those in the primary sectors made bankrupt and without any other qualifications to get another job.

#rant.

Reply 415

the IT MAN

Its all gone pear shape
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36629741

Reply 416

ThankUBritain

Doesn't look so bad. It'll go back up.

Britain handled the crisis of 2008 better than anyone. One of the contributing factors to this is likely that we're not on the Euro but GBP.

Reply 417

KatieBlogger

Original post by ThankUBritain

Britain handled the crisis of 2008 better than anyone.

Yes by under-funding our NHS leading to longer waiting lists and sub standard patient 'care', cutting benefits for the disabled, causing the administration of companies leading to massive unemployment (then unfairly sanctioning the unemployed to save yet more money), taxing hardworking people for having a 'spare' bedroom, increasing tuition fees, rising pension ages, closing down our libraries and post offices and merging good schools in battery-education academies...I could go on.

They 'handled it' by making the poor even poorer and causing anguish for millions. They destroyed peoples lives and were responsible for the deaths of thousands - and I'm not just talking about the failures of the underfunded NHS - google benefits sanctions suicide statistics and fuel poverty deaths. It's beyond sickening. Yet politicians were claiming expenses for second homes and bankers were getting millions in bonuses.

"History will judge societies and their governments - and their institutions - not by how big they are or by how well they serve the rich and powerful, but by how effectively they respond to the needs of the poor and the helpless."

The government's of the past 8 years have done nothing but punish the working class and lower middle class for the mistakes of the rich upper class. They may have 'handled it' but they did so disgracefully at the expense of their own taxpayers.

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Reply 418

NerradCFCB

Original post by PrincessZara

UK is destroyed. Agreed

This is simply not true, it is the first steps of getting our country back. The pound dropped because investors in the City assumed we would remain in the EU and we took a big hit on equity invested, the pound will go back up, anyway it was dropping weeks before due to the scaremonger and **** your pants campaign delivered by the remain camp. Why are you so anti brexit it will reduce immigration, which will give the NHS more funding per head. Free trade deals without the immigration with many EU countries will be set up- we are in the optimum position we buy more from the EU than what we sell thats why they want to do a deal with us, whatsmore if they want to not do a deal we can whack tariffs on them and they can enjoy it. In 5 years time the EU will be finished, everyone will have trade deals in all countries of the world, looney liberals who only want the immigrants i do not understand, nationalism is on the way up again, the last time that happened was when hitler rose to power to be in the EU you need to follow all the rules they set, there mates are MEP's so they vote for the issues

Reply 419

lolakirk

Original post by Bella909

Can't believe we have decided to listen to the likes of Nigel Farage, Boris Johnson and millions of uninformed voters who have no clue about the impact this will have on millions of others, who were voting under the premise we will gain back our 'British Sovereignty.' Truth is it has now been replaced with the uncertainty of political and financial instability.

You can thank Dave et al for deciding it was a good idea to let a bunch of chavs with missing front teeth decide on this. The referendum shouldn't have happened in the first place. It's like letting a cleaner perform heart surgery.