Why are people underrating Leicester again?
I've made similar comments earlier in other threads, but I don't see why people are largely predicting Leicester to finish 7th-10th which is 50-65 points.
Other than Kante (not irreplaceable) they haven't lost anyone and have otherwise strengthened. Ahmed Musa for instance in particular looks like one to watch. They've kept Vardy and it looks like Mahrez will be around next season.
The only other real argument is that the CL may take a lot of their energy, but start to finish it's only 13 games. I doubt the same people predicting Leicester to flop in the League are expecting them to win the CL. Even then, they're in Pot 1 and as long as they avoid Atleti and Dortmund can afford to play second string players and qualify in first.
Anyone else got any input for why they won't make top 5?
Other than Kante (not irreplaceable) they haven't lost anyone and have otherwise strengthened. Ahmed Musa for instance in particular looks like one to watch. They've kept Vardy and it looks like Mahrez will be around next season.
The only other real argument is that the CL may take a lot of their energy, but start to finish it's only 13 games. I doubt the same people predicting Leicester to flop in the League are expecting them to win the CL. Even then, they're in Pot 1 and as long as they avoid Atleti and Dortmund can afford to play second string players and qualify in first.
Anyone else got any input for why they won't make top 5?
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Leicester were incredible last season but their improvement also coincided with the collapse in form of teams who have challenged for the title recently; Chelsea, United and City. Arsenal and Tottenham are both notorious bottlers, so even though both looked likely to win it at some point it was never going to happen.
The chances of above 3 teams, now that they are all under considerably better management than last season, not performing well this season are very small. Also, the other top 8 teams are looking strong; Southampton always find a way to do well despite always losing their players. Liverpool with Klopp now settled will be better next season. West Ham have made good signings. Everton were awful last season but now they've binned Martinez I expect them to be where they were a couple of seasons ago. All taken account, that's why I don't think Leicester will be near the top 4 this season.
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The chances of above 3 teams, now that they are all under considerably better management than last season, not performing well this season are very small. Also, the other top 8 teams are looking strong; Southampton always find a way to do well despite always losing their players. Liverpool with Klopp now settled will be better next season. West Ham have made good signings. Everton were awful last season but now they've binned Martinez I expect them to be where they were a couple of seasons ago. All taken account, that's why I don't think Leicester will be near the top 4 this season.
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Original post by ClockEnderAFC
Leicester were incredible last season but their improvement also coincided with the collapse in form of teams who have challenged for the title recently; Chelsea, United and City. Arsenal and Tottenham are both notorious bottlers, so even though both looked likely to win it at some point it was never going to happen.
The chances of above 3 teams, now that they are all under considerably better management than last season, not performing well this season are very small. Also, the other top 8 teams are looking strong; Southampton always find a way to do well despite always losing their players. Liverpool with Klopp now settled will be better next season. West Ham have made good signings. Everton were awful last season but now they've binned Martinez I expect them to be where they were a couple of seasons ago. All taken account, that's why I don't think Leicester will be near the top 4 this season.
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The chances of above 3 teams, now that they are all under considerably better management than last season, not performing well this season are very small. Also, the other top 8 teams are looking strong; Southampton always find a way to do well despite always losing their players. Liverpool with Klopp now settled will be better next season. West Ham have made good signings. Everton were awful last season but now they've binned Martinez I expect them to be where they were a couple of seasons ago. All taken account, that's why I don't think Leicester will be near the top 4 this season.
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I agree with your points on Chelsea and the Manc clubs, which is why I don't have too much issue with those placing them out of the top four, it's more placing them 10th I have issue with. I'm sceptical on some of the others though.
Spurs for instance haven't strengthened their starting line-up at all, they've just two bench options in Janssen and Wanyama. Liverpool aren't much stronger, I'm not convinced by Mane and Wijnaldum being top quality CL level attacking options. Arsenal have got Xhaka, who's better than anyone else City, United and Chelsea have bought, but until they get Mustafi and Lacazette I don't think they'll place higher than Leicester.
As for the chasers, I'm less convinced. Everton have got Koeman, Moshiri and Walsh which is all fine and dandy, but they finished over 30 points behind Leicester and the only player they've added is Soton's sub keeper. Soton have had two good managers to rely on in previous seasons, but the jury is out on Puel as he has done most of his stuff in France. West Ham have only added Nordtveit and Feghouli who will be regular starters, that won't get them above Leicester. It's not unfeasible that one or two of them finish above Leicester, but all of them is pushing it imo.
Original post by Trapz99
Because they got lucky this year.
Teams don't get lucky over 38 games, especially when they're consistently the best and win by 10 points.
It's sunderland's year this year.
Both Sunderland and Leicester went on a brilliant run to secure survival
Both secured safety in the same stadium
Both changed managers preseason
Both expected to struggle
Both have a high scoring English striker.
I just don't think Leicester will be as successful they did well last year but I just think their run has to end somewhere a few injuries and they could have problems.
Both Sunderland and Leicester went on a brilliant run to secure survival
Both secured safety in the same stadium
Both changed managers preseason
Both expected to struggle
Both have a high scoring English striker.
I just don't think Leicester will be as successful they did well last year but I just think their run has to end somewhere a few injuries and they could have problems.
(edited 7 years ago)
Because their Title last year was basically on the back of a series of statistical anomalies unlucky to occur again. Should be noted that the data set isn't particularly large so I should also add the fact that their squad/manager is behind several other teams in the league
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Posted from TSR Mobile
For Leicester to win the league they are required to perform at 95% week in, week out. A team should not be able to perform at that level for the best part of 38 games. Whereas teams like United, City and Chelsea should be able to play average and still be amongst the top few.
Original post by drandy76
Because their Title last year was basically on the back of a series of statistical anomalies unlucky to occur again. Should be noted that the data set isn't particularly large so I should also add the fact that their squad/manager is behind several other teams in the league
Original post by Manchester United
For Leicester to win the league they are required to perform at 95% week in, week out. A team should not be able to perform at that level for the best part of 38 games. Whereas teams like United, City and Chelsea should be able to play average and still be amongst the top few.
I never said that it was underrating them to say they wouldn't win the league. I said that it was underrating them to say that a title winning team which had strengthened wouldn't finish in the top six.
To say it was an anomoly that would never happen again is a little hyperbolic considering that Leicester would have had a title winning margin in 10/11 and would have finished at least second most recent seasons.
(edited 7 years ago)
Original post by Diego Costa
I've made similar comments earlier in other threads, but I don't see why people are largely predicting Leicester to finish 7th-10th which is 50-65 points.
Other than Kante (not irreplaceable) they haven't lost anyone and have otherwise strengthened. Ahmed Musa for instance in particular looks like one to watch. They've kept Vardy and it looks like Mahrez will be around next season.
The only other real argument is that the CL may take a lot of their energy, but start to finish it's only 13 games. I doubt the same people predicting Leicester to flop in the League are expecting them to win the CL. Even then, they're in Pot 1 and as long as they avoid Atleti and Dortmund can afford to play second string players and qualify in first.
Anyone else got any input for why they won't make top 5?
Other than Kante (not irreplaceable) they haven't lost anyone and have otherwise strengthened. Ahmed Musa for instance in particular looks like one to watch. They've kept Vardy and it looks like Mahrez will be around next season.
The only other real argument is that the CL may take a lot of their energy, but start to finish it's only 13 games. I doubt the same people predicting Leicester to flop in the League are expecting them to win the CL. Even then, they're in Pot 1 and as long as they avoid Atleti and Dortmund can afford to play second string players and qualify in first.
Anyone else got any input for why they won't make top 5?
This Leicester scenario is kind of similar to the Liverpool situation. Liverpool had seasons in 2009 and 2014 where they finished second, but the next season after they projected to finish lower and did. I think there is still a fluke factor associated with Leicester, (like there was with Liverpool) that's really the only thing people can say, other than Kante, because the team itself it very solid. Just have to wait and see what happens after a handful of games
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Original post by GradeA*UnderA
This Leicester scenario is kind of similar to the Liverpool situation. Liverpool had seasons in 2009 and 2014 where they finished second, but the next season after they projected to finish lower and did. I think there is still a fluke factor associated with Leicester, (like there was with Liverpool) that's really the only thing people can say, other than Kante, because the team itself it very solid. Just have to wait and see what happens after a handful of games.
There's being predicted to fall and there's being predicted to finish NINE places lower and with THIRTY points fewer like others have predicted.
In the case of 2009, I feel that was the only year Rafa's Liverpool side achieved it's potential. A better manager would have got 90+ points with one of the Liverpool sides of the late 2000's.
In 2014, Liverpool were terrible defensively (which battered their goal difference and led/caused Crystanbul) meaning they had to outscore teams to win games. When they failed to strengthen, they were left with striker options of "not so super" Mario, Fabio "22 goals in three seasons" Borini and Rickie "signed because he was a Scouser" Lambert.
Original post by Diego Costa
To say it was an anomoly that would never happen again is a little hyperbolic considering that Leicester would have had a title winning margin in 10/11 and would have finished at least second most recent seasons.
To say it was an anomoly that would never happen again is a little hyperbolic considering that Leicester would have had a title winning margin in 10/11 and would have finished at least second most recent seasons.
Should also consider Arsenal ( to a lesser extent) Chelsea, Man city all underperformed and the likely Renaissance of Man Utd this season, along with Liverpool, Tottenham improvement.
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Original post by drandy76
Should also consider Arsenal ( to a lesser extent) Chelsea, Man city all underperformed and the likely Renaissance of Man Utd this season, along with Liverpool, Tottenham improvement.
Why would Tottenham improve but Leicester not? The latter has strengthened and finished with more points despite both teams at full throttle
Original post by Diego Costa
There's being predicted to fall and there's being predicted to finish NINE places lower and with THIRTY points fewer like others have predicted.
In the case of 2009, I feel that was the only year Rafa's Liverpool side achieved it's potential. A better manager would have got 90+ points with one of the Liverpool sides of the late 2000's.
In 2014, Liverpool were terrible defensively (which battered their goal difference and led/caused Crystanbul) meaning they had to outscore teams to win games. When they failed to strengthen, they were left with striker options of "not so super" Mario, Fabio "22 goals in three seasons" Borini and Rickie "signed because he was a Scouser" Lambert.
In the case of 2009, I feel that was the only year Rafa's Liverpool side achieved it's potential. A better manager would have got 90+ points with one of the Liverpool sides of the late 2000's.
In 2014, Liverpool were terrible defensively (which battered their goal difference and led/caused Crystanbul) meaning they had to outscore teams to win games. When they failed to strengthen, they were left with striker options of "not so super" Mario, Fabio "22 goals in three seasons" Borini and Rickie "signed because he was a Scouser" Lambert.
I was going off the bookies who have them predicted to finish 7th, a fall of 6 places. I think that's a fairly realistic prospect, but I doubt a 9 place drop would happen.
Bloody hell,how can I ever leave this forum when questions like this are asked?
It's a good question because like all good questions it's not just about the main thing being asked.
I read whole books on why people,including experts ,are useless at predicting anything.
So when I read a question like this I see ,"Why are people useless at prediction ,Leicester being a case in point ?"
The short answer is because people are irrational but think they are objective.
Edit Of course arguably the even better question is.......
It's a good question because like all good questions it's not just about the main thing being asked.
I read whole books on why people,including experts ,are useless at predicting anything.
So when I read a question like this I see ,"Why are people useless at prediction ,Leicester being a case in point ?"
The short answer is because people are irrational but think they are objective.
Edit Of course arguably the even better question is.......
Spoiler
(edited 7 years ago)
Original post by Diego Costa
I've made similar comments earlier in other threads, but I don't see why people are largely predicting Leicester to finish 7th-10th which is 50-65 points.
Other than Kante (not irreplaceable) they haven't lost anyone and have otherwise strengthened. Ahmed Musa for instance in particular looks like one to watch. They've kept Vardy and it looks like Mahrez will be around next season.
The only other real argument is that the CL may take a lot of their energy, but start to finish it's only 13 games. I doubt the same people predicting Leicester to flop in the League are expecting them to win the CL. Even then, they're in Pot 1 and as long as they avoid Atleti and Dortmund can afford to play second string players and qualify in first.
Anyone else got any input for why they won't make top 5?
Other than Kante (not irreplaceable) they haven't lost anyone and have otherwise strengthened. Ahmed Musa for instance in particular looks like one to watch. They've kept Vardy and it looks like Mahrez will be around next season.
The only other real argument is that the CL may take a lot of their energy, but start to finish it's only 13 games. I doubt the same people predicting Leicester to flop in the League are expecting them to win the CL. Even then, they're in Pot 1 and as long as they avoid Atleti and Dortmund can afford to play second string players and qualify in first.
Anyone else got any input for why they won't make top 5?
Because they ran insanely hot last year with injuries..
I notice your king pep has spent over £100m this summer and will obviously spend more. City must be NAILED ON to walk the league by +5 points due to Peps brilliance.. right?
It's because I know that not even the most intelligent person on this forum,whoever that might be,is as rational as they think they are and no more able to predict the future than a randomly selected other intelligent person that I attempt to cut out as much noise as possible by simply consulting the market.
The market currently has Leicester as coming 7th.
But let's go with Diego Costa. Let's assume that in fact Leicesters correct prediction is 6th.
So now we need simply wonder what the most likely reason is that the market has got them slightly wrong.
And off the top of my head I'd say the most likely reason is not that people are underestimating Leicester as such. But because they are slightly overestimating teams such as Liverpool and Everton.
And crucially the people who fancy those teams are betting on them. In fact Sporting index has said that they had to alter Leicesters points as more people were betting Everton.
But why aren't people betting on Leicester if they aren't underestimating them?
Perhaps they are waiting to see if Mahrez stays first and waiting to see how they do in their first few games.
And in fact this is precisely my own position.
I'd rather wait and see.
The market currently has Leicester as coming 7th.
But let's go with Diego Costa. Let's assume that in fact Leicesters correct prediction is 6th.
So now we need simply wonder what the most likely reason is that the market has got them slightly wrong.
And off the top of my head I'd say the most likely reason is not that people are underestimating Leicester as such. But because they are slightly overestimating teams such as Liverpool and Everton.
And crucially the people who fancy those teams are betting on them. In fact Sporting index has said that they had to alter Leicesters points as more people were betting Everton.
But why aren't people betting on Leicester if they aren't underestimating them?
Perhaps they are waiting to see if Mahrez stays first and waiting to see how they do in their first few games.
And in fact this is precisely my own position.
I'd rather wait and see.
(edited 7 years ago)
Original post by Betelgeuse-
Because they ran insanely hot last year with injuries..
I notice your king pep has spent over £100m this summer and will obviously spend more. City must be NAILED ON to walk the league by +5 points due to Peps brilliance.. right?
I notice your king pep has spent over £100m this summer and will obviously spend more. City must be NAILED ON to walk the league by +5 points due to Peps brilliance.. right?
He's a hammer last I checked
whoever that pep dicksucker is, i'm surprised he hasn't been banned yetOriginal post by joecphillips
It's sunderland's year this year.
Both Sunderland and Leicester went on a brilliant run to secure survival
Both secured safety in the same stadium
Both changed managers preseason
Both expected to struggle
Both have a high scoring English striker.
I just don't think Leicester will be as successful they did well last year but I just think their run has to end somewhere a few injuries and they could have problems.
Both Sunderland and Leicester went on a brilliant run to secure survival
Both secured safety in the same stadium
Both changed managers preseason
Both expected to struggle
Both have a high scoring English striker.
I just don't think Leicester will be as successful they did well last year but I just think their run has to end somewhere a few injuries and they could have problems.
In 2011 I predicted Leicester to win the 2016 Premier League, and Sunderland to win the 2017 Premier League.
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