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I think some people need to realise that the UK political voting system isn't Big Brother. Voting the ones everyone hates just for a laugh actually has real-world consequences in politics.
As if Owen Smith would win, the damage has already been done.
Original post by JamesN88
We now have a Tory government until at least 2025.
When they win in 2020 will you all accept reality or create a myriad of excuses?
When they win in 2020 will you all accept reality or create a myriad of excuses?
Unfortunately I don't think Corbyn will relinquish control even if Labour suffers a devastating election defeat. And if he wants to step down, he will install a protege as his successor; there will be no changes in strategy or tone.
At this point, their overriding strategic objective is to take permanent control of the Labour Party; the way they see it, until they have done that there is always a risk that the moderates might return and then devise ways to keep them out of the leadership of the party permanently.
In the UK, since the 1920s, we have had a two-party system with the Conservatives against the Labour Party. The goal of the hard left since that time has been to control the Labour Party; once they control Labour, they believe they can then find a way to win an election in the long term. They know they would never be successful by creating a new party, they need the brand, the resources, the activists and loyal come-what-may Labour voters, to have any shot at implementing their programme.
And of course, when Labour loses the next election, they will find a way to blame everyone but themselves. They will find a way to blame the moderates, claiming that because they challenged Corbyn in the first year, he was never able to have a real chance or find his footing. They will blame the media, even though all Labour leaders have faced a hostile media and it is the mark of a successful Labour leader to deal with that and find ways to mitigate that disadvantage. They will blame everyone but themselves.
And they will cling to the extreme left-wing conception of politics; that winning an election in a two-party system is like tossing a coin, and if they can just control the leadership long enough, through enough coin tosses, that eventually it will come up heads. They will bank on there being some kind of crisis in the future that will discredit the Tories and usher them into power. Basically, they will cling to any flimsy belief that allows them to justify to themselves that they'd rather wait 20 years to get into government and have a 100% left-wing, uncompromising administration rather than get into government in one or two cycles by having an 85% left-wing government.
David Miliband expressed it well;
The “Tory lite” allegation starts with a fact: government involves compromise. It then fashions an explanation: that the compromise is based on bad motives. It then develops a theory: that the trajectory of our country has been unchanged by Labour government since the Thatcher years. It then creates a new version of history: there is no difference between Labour and Tory governments. This is the sectarianism that leads to the dead end of permanent opposition.
Even though most Corbyn policies are little different from Miliband's (in fact some Miliband policies were more left-wing), the Corbynites hold to the "logic" that anyone other than Corbyn is a "Tory lite" and to make any concession to reality or to the preferences of ordinary non-partisan voters is a "betrayal". They'd rather have permanent Tory government than to taint themselves with the ideological impurity of practical concessions to political reality and the need to draw together a broad coalition in a big tent.
In short, Labour is screwed
Original post by Scottish Person
As if Owen Smith would win, the damage has already been done.
Owen Smith fought valiantly, and the fact he got almost 4 in 10 votes (around 200,000) in the face of the slanders, the intimidation, the vitriol and the abuse, is laudable. He knew the odds were massively stacked against him, but he was willing to try even if there was only a 1% chance of winning, because he believed that the good of the party had to outweigh any personal discomfort.
Given Momentum spokesmen and Corbynites were saying that it was the PLP against the entire membership (I think Paul Mason said it's 172 against 550,000), that basically every single member supported Corbyn and that the PLP represented some kind of Blairite fringe, Owen Smith's victory demonstrates that the moderates do have a base within the party and they do have a justifiable claim to concessions being made by the leadership.
(edited 7 years ago)
Definitely going to be a myriad of excuses
The moderates should split now, the left are suffering in the next election anyway.
The moderates should split now, the left are suffering in the next election anyway.
Original post by Jammy Duel
Definitely going to be a myriad of excuses
The moderates should split now, the left are suffering in the next election anyway.
The moderates should split now, the left are suffering in the next election anyway.
The decision will be made for them; Momentum will start deselecting MPs, and those MPs will then resign to re-stand in a byelection under an "Independent Labour" or "True Labour" banner.
The Momentumers will be shocked by this, and then scramble to find a candidate. They will pull in some completely unqualified local extremist who probably didn't even vote for Labour in 2015, and get trounced by the MP who has all the advantages of incumbency and, in many cases, significant local popularity (Stella Creasy is a very good example of that).
If Momentum goes after all of the 172, as many have proposed, then you might see 172 simultaneous byelections and those 172 quickly putting together a "True Labour" political party to stand under. It will be almost like a mini-general election on the left; the 172 will enjoy massive publicity, incumbency, huge financial support and the advantage of being moderate and capable of appealing to ordinary voters. They will likely pull in support from Liberal Democrats and moderate Tories, some who simply want a change and others who want to cause trouble for Labour (but hey, a vote is a vote).
I think they would probably win most of those seats, and then Corbyn's Labour rump ceases to be the official opposition. Without moderates to blame, Corbyn's Labour will turn on itself, squabbling over who is the most ideologically pure, and True Labour will start to annihilate Corbyn Labour. The trade unions will then step in and say that the two parties must merge on the moderate's terms, as the trade unions do not want to lose any possibility of having influence on a Labour government (which they will do if they continue to be hostile to the majority, moderate Labour faction in parliament.
I just hope the moderates have the guts to do it. It's not even a case of live on your knees or die on your feet; it's die on your knees, begging the Momentumers not to deselect you and then quietly accepting it when they do, or living on your feet by refusing to accept it and forcing a byelection
At least we now have a real Labour party for the working class and not closet Tories. Bring on the next GE.
Original post by AlexanderHam
The decision will be made for them; Momentum will start deselecting MPs, and those MPs will then resign to re-stand in a byelection under an "Independent Labour" or "True Labour" banner.
The Momentumers will be shocked by this, and then scramble to find a candidate. They will pull in some completely unqualified local extremist who probably didn't even vote for Labour in 2015, and get trounced by the MP who has all the advantages of incumbency and, in many cases, significant local popularity (Stella Creasy is a very good example of that).
If Momentum goes after all of the 172, as many have proposed, then you might see 172 simultaneous byelections and those 172 quickly putting together a "True Labour" political party to stand under. It will be almost like a mini-general election on the left; the 172 will enjoy massive publicity, incumbency, huge financial support and the advantage of being moderate and capable of appealing to ordinary voters. They will likely pull in support from Liberal Democrats and moderate Tories, some who simply want a change and others who want to cause trouble for Labour (but hey, a vote is a vote).
I think they would probably win most of those seats, and then Corbyn's Labour rump ceases to be the official opposition. Without moderates to blame, Corbyn's Labour will turn on itself, squabbling over who is the most ideologically pure, and True Labour will start to annihilate Corbyn Labour. The trade unions will then step in and say that the two parties must merge on the moderate's terms, as the trade unions do not want to lose any possibility of having influence on a Labour government (which they will do if they continue to be hostile to the majority, moderate Labour faction in parliament.
I just hope the moderates have the guts to do it. It's not even a case of live on your knees or die on your feet; it's die on your knees, begging the Momentumers not to deselect you and then quietly accepting it when they do, or living on your feet by refusing to accept it and forcing a byelection
The Momentumers will be shocked by this, and then scramble to find a candidate. They will pull in some completely unqualified local extremist who probably didn't even vote for Labour in 2015, and get trounced by the MP who has all the advantages of incumbency and, in many cases, significant local popularity (Stella Creasy is a very good example of that).
If Momentum goes after all of the 172, as many have proposed, then you might see 172 simultaneous byelections and those 172 quickly putting together a "True Labour" political party to stand under. It will be almost like a mini-general election on the left; the 172 will enjoy massive publicity, incumbency, huge financial support and the advantage of being moderate and capable of appealing to ordinary voters. They will likely pull in support from Liberal Democrats and moderate Tories, some who simply want a change and others who want to cause trouble for Labour (but hey, a vote is a vote).
I think they would probably win most of those seats, and then Corbyn's Labour rump ceases to be the official opposition. Without moderates to blame, Corbyn's Labour will turn on itself, squabbling over who is the most ideologically pure, and True Labour will start to annihilate Corbyn Labour. The trade unions will then step in and say that the two parties must merge on the moderate's terms, as the trade unions do not want to lose any possibility of having influence on a Labour government (which they will do if they continue to be hostile to the majority, moderate Labour faction in parliament.
I just hope the moderates have the guts to do it. It's not even a case of live on your knees or die on your feet; it's die on your knees, begging the Momentumers not to deselect you and then quietly accepting it when they do, or living on your feet by refusing to accept it and forcing a byelection
The problem any breakaway group would have, whether it be from left or right, is that Labour can broadly be broken into three roughly equally sized groups: the left, the right and the bran loyalists. What this means is that assuming these groups follow through we would see Labour having about 20-24% and the splinter group 10-12%.
Obviously it gets more complicated with UKIP wrestling for the same chunk of the electorate, but if the breakaway group leave soon it could certainly be interesting, they will have a few years to gain a foothold and most importantly fight with UKIP given they have an okay core support. They then perform strongly in 2020 and Corbynistas keep Labour firmly left wing, the break away group then starts targetting the lib dems, and brand loyalists.
Original post by MedioCentro97
At least we now have a real Labour party for the working class and not closet Tories. Bring on the next GE.
If only it were what the electorate wanted...
Oh yeah, I forgot, they do want it but they're just too stupid to know they want it
(edited 7 years ago)
Original post by Jammy Duel
Definitely going to be a myriad of excuses
The moderates should split now, the left are suffering in the next election anyway.
The moderates should split now, the left are suffering in the next election anyway.
Jezbollah has already swerved the question of deselections in an interview after the result by saying it's a matter for local parties(who as we know have been hijacked by Momentum) so it may be inevitable.
I seriously doubt good local MPs elected by the wider general public will submit to a handful of extremists. I expect they'll stand again as independents if it comes to it.
Original post by JamesN88
Jezbollah has already swerved the question of deselections in an interview after the result by saying it's a matter for local parties(who as we know have been hijacked by Momentum) so it may be inevitable.
I seriously doubt good local MPs elected by the wider general public will submit to a handful of extremists. I expect they'll stand again as independents if it comes to it.
I seriously doubt good local MPs elected by the wider general public will submit to a handful of extremists. I expect they'll stand again as independents if it comes to it.
Herein lies the problem, if we make the assumption that they will be deselected and that the hard left will still be in control next term then they should ditch sooner rather than later to be more organised and get their message out more, on the other hand if either of those assumptions proves false it's better for them to stay, even if they aren't MPs in 4 years
It's also worth acknowledging that Owen Smith got more votes than there are members of the Conservative Party in total. So the idea that somehow he represents a PLP that has no support and all members are behind Corbyn is absurd.
Original post by Jammy Duel
Herein lies the problem, if we make the assumption that they will be deselected and that the hard left will still be in control next term then they should ditch sooner rather than later to be more organised and get their message out more, on the other hand if either of those assumptions proves false it's better for them to stay, even if they aren't MPs in 4 years
How is it better for them not to be MPs?
Constituency selections will occur at the same time, so if 172 MPs are deselected then they will have an opportunity, around 18 months before the general election, to resign en masse so as to call byelections and stand as independents.
It would be like a mini-general election on the left. It would garner huge coverage in which they would be able to put their case.
The deselections are coming, Corbyn has made it very clear he will not stand in the way and in any case he can't control the extremists. He opened pandora's box, now all he can do is watch.
Original post by JamesN88
I seriously doubt good local MPs elected by the wider general public will submit to a handful of extremists. I expect they'll stand again as independents if it comes to it.
I seriously doubt good local MPs elected by the wider general public will submit to a handful of extremists. I expect they'll stand again as independents if it comes to it.
Exactly. Many of these MPs are extremely popular in their constituencies. Stella Creasy is a good example; in 2010 she got 51% of the vote (23% more than the Conservative candidate). In 2015 she got 68% of the vote. She has a very strong local following, as do many of these MPs.
If they resign en masse so there are 172 simultaneous byelections, the resulting mini-general election will allow them to put their case, with all the advantages of incumbency and very likely the good will of everyone who finds Corbyn repellent and genuinely wants to see a viable opposition (even those who generally support the Conservatives).
(edited 7 years ago)
Original post by Jammy Duel
I disagree. If a Labour MP resigns to call a byelection, I think the likelihood is that they will win that seat. Many of these MPs are well-known and popular in their seat, the candidates Momentum puts up will probably be fringe dwellers and extremists with little appeal.
In such a mini-general election, True Labour will likely attract the support of pretty much anyone who dislikes Corbyn and wants to see a strong opposition return. In the long term they don't have to hold on to that vote, merely hold it long enough to spook the trade unions into ditching Corbyn and brokering a merger of the two parties on the moderates terms
Original post by AlexanderHam
How is it better for them not to be MPs?
Constituency selections will occur at the same time, so if 172 MPs are deselected then they will have an opportunity, around 18 months before the general election, to resign en masse so as to call byelections and stand as independents.
It would be like a mini-general election on the left. It would garner huge coverage in which they would be able to put their case.
The deselections are coming, Corbyn has made it very clear he will not stand in the way and in any case he can't control the extremists. He opened pandora's box, now all he can do is watch.
Constituency selections will occur at the same time, so if 172 MPs are deselected then they will have an opportunity, around 18 months before the general election, to resign en masse so as to call byelections and stand as independents.
It would be like a mini-general election on the left. It would garner huge coverage in which they would be able to put their case.
The deselections are coming, Corbyn has made it very clear he will not stand in the way and in any case he can't control the extremists. He opened pandora's box, now all he can do is watch.
And how many of those become Tory marginals? Or stay Labour because of the balance of brand loyalty vs MP loyalty
Original post by AlexanderHam
I disagree. If a Labour MP resigns to call a byelection, I think the likelihood is that they will win that seat. Many of these MPs are well-known and popular in their seat, the candidates Momentum puts up will probably be fringe dwellers and extremists with little appeal.
In such a mini-general election, True Labour will likely attract the support of pretty much anyone who dislikes Corbyn and wants to see a strong opposition return. In the long term they don't have to hold on to that vote, merely hold it long enough to spook the trade unions into ditching Corbyn and brokering a merger of the two parties on the moderates terms
In such a mini-general election, True Labour will likely attract the support of pretty much anyone who dislikes Corbyn and wants to see a strong opposition return. In the long term they don't have to hold on to that vote, merely hold it long enough to spook the trade unions into ditching Corbyn and brokering a merger of the two parties on the moderates terms
Original post by Jammy Duel
And how many of those become Tory marginals? Or stay Labour because of the balance of brand loyalty vs MP loyalty
I'm not saying it will be easy and that True Labour wouldn't lose any. But it has to be done. "Labour" no longer carries the Labour torch, it is not the legitimate successor of the party.
So moderates can either stay in the Labour Party and see it decline like the Liberal Party did, or it can rip the bandaid off, take the pain and do to Corbyn Labour what Labour did to the Liberals.
You also seem to be confusing the views of Labour members and the views of Labour voters. Labour voters, and voters in general, by an appreciable majority prefer Owen Smith to Jeremy Corbyn. We also know that Owen Smith won by a significant margin in the category of those who were members prior to May 2015.
What matters is what the voters want, not what a few hundred thousand entryist extremist former Green and Lib Dem voters want.
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