What will post Assad Syria be like?
Ok let's just assume that Assad is losing the war and that the rebels are going to win. What will it be like in Syria of the future?
Firstly the FSA is the largest group followed by IS and the Kurds. The FSA is made up of many factions and jihadist groups. Many of them are non-Syrian and include Libyans, Afghans, Czechs, Somalis etc.
Then you may have the break up of IS, many members will join different FSA groups adding an extremist brutal element to those groups. Or IS may survive as a divided opposition can't defeat them.
Each group is going to want power to rule Syria. An FSA coalition ruling Syria isn't going to work. Rival groups will fight among each other for power, there will be Jihadist groups, criminal gangsters etc, Syria will fragment into zones ruled by War Lords and caliphates.
Then you need to consider the Alawites, Shia and Christians who are not going to accept being ruled by Sunnis so they will have their own zones.
The only area that stands a chance of stability and peace is Kurdish Northern Syria but they're likely to face regular attacks from Turkey and the possibility of Turkey stirring up conflict between Iraqi Kurdistan and Syrian Kurdistan.
The likelihood is that Syria will be permanently fractured like Somalia and without Assad it will face decades of civil war.
The same thing happened in Czechen Republic in the 1990s the rebels won and the place never had a proper strong leadership only criminal gangs, jihadists and foreign insurgents, it was lawless until Putin invaded Grozny and restored order.
In all Syria without Assad or the Ba'ath regime will be a bloody mess and a hot bed for terrorists and criminals.
Only Assad and the Ba'ath regime can mend Syria.
Firstly the FSA is the largest group followed by IS and the Kurds. The FSA is made up of many factions and jihadist groups. Many of them are non-Syrian and include Libyans, Afghans, Czechs, Somalis etc.
Then you may have the break up of IS, many members will join different FSA groups adding an extremist brutal element to those groups. Or IS may survive as a divided opposition can't defeat them.
Each group is going to want power to rule Syria. An FSA coalition ruling Syria isn't going to work. Rival groups will fight among each other for power, there will be Jihadist groups, criminal gangsters etc, Syria will fragment into zones ruled by War Lords and caliphates.
Then you need to consider the Alawites, Shia and Christians who are not going to accept being ruled by Sunnis so they will have their own zones.
The only area that stands a chance of stability and peace is Kurdish Northern Syria but they're likely to face regular attacks from Turkey and the possibility of Turkey stirring up conflict between Iraqi Kurdistan and Syrian Kurdistan.
The likelihood is that Syria will be permanently fractured like Somalia and without Assad it will face decades of civil war.
The same thing happened in Czechen Republic in the 1990s the rebels won and the place never had a proper strong leadership only criminal gangs, jihadists and foreign insurgents, it was lawless until Putin invaded Grozny and restored order.
In all Syria without Assad or the Ba'ath regime will be a bloody mess and a hot bed for terrorists and criminals.
Only Assad and the Ba'ath regime can mend Syria.
(edited 7 years ago)
I dont think it would be fair to say that only Assad can bind Syria together, the noise from plenty of Syrians over the past few years is that getting rid of Assad is non-negotiable; they will not, for any reason, unite behind him after all the atrocities his regime has commited, which to me doesnt sound all that unreasonable.
As for the Kurds, well the Turks will play every trick they habe to make surentherenis never a Kurdish State, they will hold the west over a barrel wrt refugees, military aod, etc wherever they can.
I also wouldnt be suprised if the US doesnt try to manipulate and undermine the Kurds the moment they gain any traction and the US starts to realise they are far too left wing to be left alone in a such a strategic psoition.
As for the Kurds, well the Turks will play every trick they habe to make surentherenis never a Kurdish State, they will hold the west over a barrel wrt refugees, military aod, etc wherever they can.
I also wouldnt be suprised if the US doesnt try to manipulate and undermine the Kurds the moment they gain any traction and the US starts to realise they are far too left wing to be left alone in a such a strategic psoition.
Probably a Sudan/South Sudan situation.
Can't see the war ending without the land being divided up somehow although it would be an almost impossible task given how many vested interests there are.
South Sudan managed less than 2 years from emerging as the world's newest country to falling into civil war again, I can't see whatever becomes of Syria to do much better than that sadly.
Can't see the war ending without the land being divided up somehow although it would be an almost impossible task given how many vested interests there are.
South Sudan managed less than 2 years from emerging as the world's newest country to falling into civil war again, I can't see whatever becomes of Syria to do much better than that sadly.
Original post by mojojojo101
I dont think it would be fair to say that only Assad can bind Syria together, the noise from plenty of Syrians over the past few years is that getting rid of Assad is non-negotiable; they will not, for any reason, unite behind him after all the atrocities his regime has commited, which to me doesnt sound all that unreasonable.
As for the Kurds, well the Turks will play every trick they habe to make surentherenis never a Kurdish State, they will hold the west over a barrel wrt refugees, military aod, etc wherever they can.
I also wouldnt be suprised if the US doesnt try to manipulate and undermine the Kurds the moment they gain any traction and the US starts to realise they are far too left wing to be left alone in a such a strategic psoition.
As for the Kurds, well the Turks will play every trick they habe to make surentherenis never a Kurdish State, they will hold the west over a barrel wrt refugees, military aod, etc wherever they can.
I also wouldnt be suprised if the US doesnt try to manipulate and undermine the Kurds the moment they gain any traction and the US starts to realise they are far too left wing to be left alone in a such a strategic psoition.
But as I said the majority of people who refuse to unite behind Assad or surrender are foreign jihadists: Libyans, Czechs, Afghans etc. They have no reason for peace under Assad, they just want to rule their dream caliphates.
In Aleppo innocent people, families with children are being used as human shields by the rebels and jihadists who refuse to surrender, after all they're not Syrian so why should they surrender?
We watch children on the news and adult citizens of Aleppo criticise Assad without fear even though they know his forces will soon occupy the city. But they arn't afraid to complain against the regime. But what we never hear is them criticise the jihadists or even ask both sides to down their arms. The difference is Assad isn't going to behead them, burn them alive in a cage or throw them off the tops of tall buildings. Assad might be bad but he is the lesser of the two evils.
Look at a child in Aleppo 10 years ago in 2006 and despite being under the tough Assad regime they are a lot happier, they have secure family, freinds, school. Compare that with now trapped between two fighting forces innocents dying, being orphaned no school held as human shields by foreign jihadists who care not about Syria but about their own dream of utopia.
Original post by 999tigger
Assad isnt losing and Russia wont let him lose.
Post conflict it will be a mess and there are likely to be reprisals for many years to come no matter who wins.
Post conflict it will be a mess and there are likely to be reprisals for many years to come no matter who wins.
This is the problem with this conflict, Assad cannot win, but the Russians refuse to see him lose.
Original post by Ambitious1999
But as I said the majority of people who refuse to unite behind Assad or surrender are foreign jihadists: Libyans, Czechs, Afghans etc. They have no reason for peace under Assad, they just want to rule their dream caliphates.
In Aleppo innocent people, families with children are being used as human shields by the rebels and jihadists who refuse to surrender, after all they're not Syrian so why should they surrender?
We watch children on the news and adult citizens of Aleppo criticise Assad without fear even though they know his forces will soon occupy the city. But they arn't afraid to complain against the regime. But what we never hear is them criticise the jihadists or even ask both sides to down their arms. The difference is Assad isn't going to behead them, burn them alive in a cage or throw them off the tops of tall buildings. Assad might be bad but he is the lesser of the two evils.
Look at a child in Aleppo 10 years ago in 2006 and despite being under the tough Assad regime they are a lot happier, they have secure family, freinds, school. Compare that with now trapped between two fighting forces innocents dying, being orphaned no school held as human shields by foreign jihadists who care not about Syria but about their own dream of utopia.
In Aleppo innocent people, families with children are being used as human shields by the rebels and jihadists who refuse to surrender, after all they're not Syrian so why should they surrender?
We watch children on the news and adult citizens of Aleppo criticise Assad without fear even though they know his forces will soon occupy the city. But they arn't afraid to complain against the regime. But what we never hear is them criticise the jihadists or even ask both sides to down their arms. The difference is Assad isn't going to behead them, burn them alive in a cage or throw them off the tops of tall buildings. Assad might be bad but he is the lesser of the two evils.
Look at a child in Aleppo 10 years ago in 2006 and despite being under the tough Assad regime they are a lot happier, they have secure family, freinds, school. Compare that with now trapped between two fighting forces innocents dying, being orphaned no school held as human shields by foreign jihadists who care not about Syria but about their own dream of utopia.
Civilians are being used as human shields and Assad/Russian forces wont let them leave while continuing to carpet bomb the city day and night. I bet the children of Aleppo can wait to be 'liberated'.
Hypothetically lets say the various rebel groups all decide to surrender at once, what do you suggest we do with them? By some estimates there are 10,000 jihadis in Aleppo, where are they going to go? Back to Europe? Given ground and power within a new Syria? You suggest killing ALL of them? Or are they going to just be left alone to restart their war whenever they please?
Again, hypothetically speaking, you can magically get rid of all those jihadis, do you honestly, truthfully expext the people of Alleppo to welcome Assad back with open arms? The man who bombed their schools, their hospitals, who bombed the people trying to bring them food and water, who fired chemical weapons at them who's refusal to allow any sort of democracy in his country was what initiated this awful civil war?
Original post by mojojojo101
This is the problem with this conflict, Assad cannot win, but the Russians refuse to see him lose.
Civilians are being used as human shields and Assad/Russian forces wont let them leave while continuing to carpet bomb the city day and night. I bet the children of Aleppo can wait to be 'liberated'.
Hypothetically lets say the various rebel groups all decide to surrender at once, what do you suggest we do with them? By some estimates there are 10,000 jihadis in Aleppo, where are they going to go? Back to Europe? Given ground and power within a new Syria? You suggest killing ALL of them? Or are they going to just be left alone to restart their war whenever they please?
Again, hypothetically speaking, you can magically get rid of all those jihadis, do you honestly, truthfully expext the people of Alleppo to welcome Assad back with open arms? The man who bombed their schools, their hospitals, who bombed the people trying to bring them food and water, who fired chemical weapons at them who's refusal to allow any sort of democracy in his country was what initiated this awful civil war?
Civilians are being used as human shields and Assad/Russian forces wont let them leave while continuing to carpet bomb the city day and night. I bet the children of Aleppo can wait to be 'liberated'.
Hypothetically lets say the various rebel groups all decide to surrender at once, what do you suggest we do with them? By some estimates there are 10,000 jihadis in Aleppo, where are they going to go? Back to Europe? Given ground and power within a new Syria? You suggest killing ALL of them? Or are they going to just be left alone to restart their war whenever they please?
Again, hypothetically speaking, you can magically get rid of all those jihadis, do you honestly, truthfully expext the people of Alleppo to welcome Assad back with open arms? The man who bombed their schools, their hospitals, who bombed the people trying to bring them food and water, who fired chemical weapons at them who's refusal to allow any sort of democracy in his country was what initiated this awful civil war?
If the jihadists surrender they will probably return to their home countries or look for new battle fields in Libya, Tunisia, Afghanistan etc. if they come home they will be arrested and rehabilitated to re-integrate back into society but there could be private calls from Aleppo citizens to have them extradited back to Syria to face trial for illegal occupation of their city and war crimes.
As for welcoming Assad back having bombed Aleppo its a bit like the citizens of Dresden holding a grudge against the British for bombing them. You will find the majority of Germans are just glad the bombing happened to stop Hitler. Most residents of Dresden welcomed the Russians who came to liberate them
Hospitals have been attacked but its possible they were being used as bases for the jihadists, possibly even cases where patients and staff had been forced to leave the hospitals so jihadists could use them as a hideout.
How can Assad win his people back in Aleppo?
One the jihadists have left Aleppo in will come humanitarian aid and restoration of lawn and order.
The regime with help and funding from Russia and the west can help, rebuild Aleppo.
Defend the city from future attacks by jihadists and IS.
(edited 7 years ago)
Original post by Ambitious1999
How can Assad win his people back in Aleppo?
One the jihadists have left Aleppo in will come humanitarian aid and restoration of lawn and order.
The regime with help and funding from Russia and the west can help, rebuild Aleppo.
Defend the city from future attacks by jihadists and IS.
How can Assad win his people back in Aleppo?
One the jihadists have left Aleppo in will come humanitarian aid and restoration of lawn and order.
The regime with help and funding from Russia and the west can help, rebuild Aleppo.
Defend the city from future attacks by jihadists and IS.
Maybe stop killing, barrel bombing, dumb boming and starving them?
Why wouldnt he allow in humanitarian aid now?
Clearly what will happen there will be massive retaliation and hunting down of anyone who opposed the regime. There will be no peace whilst he is in power. It will take generations before any sort of peace is established , except via military force.
Your the person who kept making the posts about how everyone was losing to IS and we needed to make peace with them.
(edited 7 years ago)
Original post by 999tigger
Maybe stop killing, barrel bombing, dumb boming and starving them?
Why wouldnt he allow in humanitarian aid now?
Clearly what will happen there will be massive retaliation and hunting down of anyone who opposed the regime. There will be no peace whilst he is in power. It will take generations before any sort of peace is established , except via military force.
Your the person who kept making the posts about how everyone was losing to IS and we needed to make peace with them.
Why wouldnt he allow in humanitarian aid now?
Clearly what will happen there will be massive retaliation and hunting down of anyone who opposed the regime. There will be no peace whilst he is in power. It will take generations before any sort of peace is established , except via military force.
Your the person who kept making the posts about how everyone was losing to IS and we needed to make peace with them.
As I said, its seems a bit odd that Aleppo citizens take the risk to publicly complain about Assad forces on the news when they know fine well that the Regime forces will soon be in Aleppo. Yet they never complain about the Jihadists who are attracting the bomb attacks. The difference is Assad will not behead them, roast them to death in a cage or skin them alive for complaining and they know that.
The only people who should fear Assads forces are the foreign jihadists who have no right to be in Syria in the first place. The innocent citizens will open up and say they were used as human shields then feel free to show their hate against the terrorists. But they dare not say anything until the jihadists have gone.
There is even rumours of how the jihadists are using schools and hospitals as their bases and even baby food factories to store their weapons.
Scorched earth scenario. I read that even if they started again now, it would take like 37 years for them to get back to their previous GDP. And that's with the drought they had.....
I like the Kurds, I hope they win their country 
what is post mubarak egypt like? the same
what is post gadaffi libya like? the same
what is post saddam iraq like? the same
so...post assad syria will basically be the same as it is now.
what is post gadaffi libya like? the same
what is post saddam iraq like? the same
so...post assad syria will basically be the same as it is now.
Original post by sleepysnooze
what is post mubarak egypt like? the same
what is post gadaffi libya like? the same
what is post saddam iraq like? the same
so...post assad syria will basically be the same as it is now.
what is post gadaffi libya like? the same
what is post saddam iraq like? the same
so...post assad syria will basically be the same as it is now.
Not at all.
Post Mubarak Egypt, tourist industry almost wrecked.
Post Gadaffi Libya, most sucessful richest and most stable country in Africa a war torn hell hole with IS taking over.
Post Saddam Iraq, war torn full of sectarian violence, kidnappings and almost fell to IS a few years ago.
Oh and you forgot Post Ben Ali Tunisia: Tourist industry totally ruined after 36 holiday makers murdered on a beach by IS.
Perhaps Syria can be different.
Original post by Ambitious1999
Not at all.
Post Mubarak Egypt, tourist industry almost wrecked.
Post Gadaffi Libya, most sucessful richest and most stable country in Africa a war torn hell hole with IS taking over.
Post Saddam Iraq, war torn full of sectarian violence, kidnappings and almost fell to IS a few years ago.
Oh and you forgot Post Ben Ali Tunisia: Tourist industry totally ruined after 36 holiday makers murdered on a beach by IS.
Perhaps Syria can be different.
Post Mubarak Egypt, tourist industry almost wrecked.
Post Gadaffi Libya, most sucessful richest and most stable country in Africa a war torn hell hole with IS taking over.
Post Saddam Iraq, war torn full of sectarian violence, kidnappings and almost fell to IS a few years ago.
Oh and you forgot Post Ben Ali Tunisia: Tourist industry totally ruined after 36 holiday makers murdered on a beach by IS.
Perhaps Syria can be different.
1) I meant politically. you're never going to successfully create a belgium in the middle east. the culture just isn't there.
2) I didn't forget tunisia - I just didn't know the guy's name, that's all
Original post by KimKallstrom
Scorched earth scenario. I read that even if they started again now, it would take like 37 years for them to get back to their previous GDP. And that's with the drought they had.....
Both Germany and Russia were wrecked after WW2 but it never too that long to be rebuilt.
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