When Le Pen wins next year, the EU is finished

I said Brexit would happen, I said Trump would happen and now I'm saying Le Pen will happen. When she wins next year, the EU is over.

Especially as Merkel will be kicked out too

Thoughts?

The binary nature of the French presidential process does present an opportunity (though your assuming France would vote out in a referendum) however i can't see Merkel losing..



At any rate, i think the EU will survive even if it reduces in membership. Germany will not give up its power.

I said Brexit would happen, I said Trump would happen and now I'm saying Le Pen will happen. When she wins next year, the EU is over.

Especially as Merkel will be kicked out too

Thoughts?

Aside from the fact that you claim to have correctly predicted the Brexit vote and the American election, what is your reasoning behind Marine winning the French election?

The same reasons brexit and trump happened, people have had enough of liberal metropolitan elites. They feel left behind and forgotten by globalisation. Brexit, Trump and Le Pen let them show this. It isnt suprising that far right movements and gaining support across Europe in France, Germany, Austria, holland etc is it? The liberal left only have themselves to blame for this.

. My german family so the same thing and that they believe Merkel will be kicked out in Germany.

I think that's an overly simplistic view. There is a comparison to be made between UK voters and American voters vis-à-vis immigration, however, the same phenomenon, whether 'the islands are full' or 'build the wall' talk is rather quiet in France.

Some people in France - 30%~ - may have had enough of liberal metropolitan elites, but the rest will support Fillon, or the leftist candidate if he/she manages to make it past the first round, over Le Pen.

The problem with Le Pen is she has two core problems: she shares her father's name and the Front National is still called the Front National. Her name and the name of her party are synonymous with racism in France - and until they elect a new leader with a different name, and rebrand the party, I would be shocked if the NF ever turned their 30% into a majority.

Regarding Merkel, I think there is a considerably stronger case to be made that we will witness a shock in Germany than in France.

Although i agree that Le Pen will likely lose its worth noting that Fillon is economically the candidate furthest to the right than France has had for some time. The danger is that although Hollande's voters can stomach the UMP, once they learn and hear more about Fillon's economic beliefs they may either not bother to vote or find Le Pen's socialist economic policies to be much more bearable.

I therefore disagree with your later point on the basis that the binary nature of the French system makes Le Pen much more dangerous once the campaign against Fillon really begins.

Although i agree that Le Pen will likely lose its worth noting that Fillon is economically the candidate furthest to the right than France has had for some time. The danger is that although Hollande's voters can stomach the UMP, once they learn and hear more about Fillon's economic beliefs they may either not bother to vote or find Le Pen's socialist economic policies to be much more bearable.

I therefore disagree with your later point on the basis that the binary nature of the French system makes Le Pen much more dangerous once the campaign against Fillon really begins.

It is so obvious what people want now, all over the west.

it is certainly obvious what you want.

Let me guess, fascism right?

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That Austrian wouldn't have done much for the collapse of the eu cause anyway as by all accounts he seemed an eu stooge