How badly will Brexit affect the London banking scene

If as PM May has said we follow through and have a 'hard' Brexit (we leave the single market etc) will the majority of banks relocate their EU HQ's out of London to places such as Paris, Frankfurt and potentially Dublin? Or if Banks don't move out entirely am I right in assuming the job market will be significantly smaller?

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Reply 1

Ladbants

Brexit will be great for banking. London is a world financial centre, banks aren't going to leave. Lack of restrictive EU regulations and less foreign workers coming in will be good for aspiring British bankers.

Reply 2

niteninja1

Original post by Ladbants

Exactly we will be able to lower taxes on the banks and reduce capital commitments

Reply 3

NickAlex12

It won't. London is the world's biggest financial centre.

Reply 4

999tigger

If you use the search button you na see this is a very common question OP.

(edited 7 years ago)

Reply 5

Maker

The well paid bankers at the top will do well, they can easily afford to move to Paris, Frankfurt or Dublin and have their kids in boarding school if they are not there already.

Its the ones lower down the organisation, the IT support and admin staff that can'r afford to move will loose their jobs and the money spent in London by bank workers will be spent instead in the other EU countries so everyone from taxi drivers to estate agents will lose out.

Reply 6

NickAlex12

Original post by Maker

Boo hoo

Reply 7

Dvizex

Original post by 999tigger

If you use the search button you na see this is a very common question OP.

I'm aware of that. But, It's good to get a discussion going and find out other people's opinions and whether they have changed given recent political developments.

(edited 7 years ago)

Reply 8

Len Goodman

This is just the remainers picking at straws once again - it won't have a negative effect on banking at all, quite the opposite actually.

Reply 9

Maker

Original post by serions871

Boo hoo

Did your mum type that for you?

Reply 10

StephenWond3rboy

Original post by Dvizex

As someone who works closely with commercial and central bankers, I can tell you Brexit will have a significant negative effect on the bank jobs in the short and medium term. London has good infrastructure and good property laws so banks see it as an ideal place to set up business to trade with rest of Europe. Essentially London banks are seen as doors into European markets. Without Europe, it will just be a door.

In fact, there are signs of movement already with certain consulting divisions of UBS being moved into mainland Europe. A pattern that I suspect will continue with many banks since their dealings with European businesses outweigh their activities within the UK.

Let's be very clear here about the nature of Brexit. Europe puts far stringent controls on services than goods. London is all about services. There will be a significant impact on not just the number of jobs but the type of work bankers staying behind get at least in the short to medium term.

Edit: I'll just say one more thing. Yes, people saying banks will not be affected are right. They won't. Because they can move. All it requires is a little bit of restructuring and few extra lawyers. Bank jobs in London are a different matter altogether.

(edited 7 years ago)

Reply 11

NickAlex12

Original post by Maker

Did your mum type that for you?

I typed it.

Reply 12

Dvizex

Original post by StephenWond3rboy

Agree with you, I've heard a BB are offering packages to people to work in Paris

Reply 13

niteninja1

Also we have more negotiating power than you think. If eu say we can't keep the financial passport we can say we'll we will put a 90% tarrif on EU goods as a self governing democracy we have the power

Reply 14

BusMan21

Hard Brexit or soft is irrelevant, as we speak there is significant downsizing of jobs based in London across the city. It's a fact.

As someone in one of the notable Canary Wharf buildings told me, they're all slowly moving out of their flagship building and ensuring only 'decision makers' remain in London in a smaller office with just hot desks.

Brexit is just the questions of how many jobs are moving, not just whether they are or not.

Reply 15

Maker

Original post by serions871

I typed it.

Bless

Reply 16

Maker

Original post by niteninja1

Tarrifs have to follow WTO rules, countries can't put them up to whatever they want and certainly not 90%. The EU would retaliate with their own tariffs which will make manufacturers like Nissan and Toyota relocate to the EU.

(edited 7 years ago)

Reply 17

username2965904

I don't think we really know. Banks have suggested they might move in response to certain events or government actions so often that the reality cannot be predicted. Look at HSBC and how Gideon Osbourne responded a couple of years ago.

Reply 18

IamJacksContempt

Original post by Ladbants

Original post by Len Goodman

This is just the remainers picking at straws once again - it won't have a negative effect on banking at all, quite the opposite actually.

Do either of you even have anything to back these opinions apart from "largest financial centre"?

Reply 19

knightchildish

Given the large bailouts the UK has given out to banks like RBS and HSBC I doubt theyll leave.

It does ultimately depend on the deal we get. If the deal opens for international deals they wont leave. Ultimately though we will lose jobs because a large reason for FDI in the UK from banks is access to the European markets and trade with them. It's just a matter of how many are lost and what type of sacrifice they need to make to maximise their profit margin.