***** UKIP are expected to WIN the Stoke-Central By-election!! ******

In recent months we have seen a number of MP's resign over policy issues such as Brexit with labour, or the Heathrow expansion. Most notably Sarah Olney's stunning victory to beat Zac Goldsmith in the Richmond Park By-election. Supposedly the Lib Dems made their substantial gain due to issues surrounding Brexit.

And now I move onto the Stoke by-election being held next month. UKIP came a relatively close second in the 2015 general election, labour are defending a 5,000 majority (See below).

Stoke is well known for Euro-scepticism - 70% voted to leave, a similar percentage to Richmond Park in terms of remain votes. I think labour are in a very uncomfortable position, if they lose this seat to UKIP this could have implications for the next general election in labour strongholds such as the north east of England.

This by-election could define the future of Brexit Britain and the likelihood of UKIP in the HOC.

However, the Conservatives are in unknown territory here - they would undoubtedly win the next election at about 40% support, but will they steal UKIP votes? Is it a three horse race, or just between UKIP and labour?

As for my position - I live in Scotland so UKIP are non-existent. The Conservatives take up most of the opposition/unionist vote in my area. But I'm definitely going to William Hill to put a few quid on this, because I believe we are in for a tremendous shock!

Thoughts? Anyone live near the area?

Misleading/inaccurate thread title.

Have any polls been done on voting intention? If not then this is all just hyped speculation.

I'd be surprised if UKIP did win given their general decline in popularity nationally but I suppose it is possible. That said, basing an expectation on the referendum alone is stupid. ''I voted leave'' =/= ''I will vote UKIP''.

The results from the 2015 election demonstrate this.

Misleading/inaccurate thread title.

Have any polls been done on voting intention? If not then this is all just hyped speculation.

I'd be surprised if UKIP did win given their general decline in popularity nationally but I suppose it is possible. That said, basing an expectation on the referendum alone is stupid. ''I voted leave'' =/= ''I will vote UKIP''.

The results from the 2015 election demonstrate this.

Their decline...to polling higher than 2015 election results.

Misleading/inaccurate thread title.

Have any polls been done on voting intention? If not then this is all just hyped speculation.

I'd be surprised if UKIP did win given their general decline in popularity nationally but I suppose it is possible. That said, basing an expectation on the referendum alone is stupid. ''I voted leave'' =/= ''I will vote UKIP''.

The results from the 2015 election demonstrate this.

Misleading/inaccurate thread title.

Have any polls been done on voting intention? If not then this is all just hyped speculation.

I'd be surprised if UKIP did win given their general decline in popularity nationally but I suppose it is possible. That said, basing an expectation on the referendum alone is stupid. ''I voted leave'' =/= ''I will vote UKIP''.

Their decline...to polling higher than 2015 election results.Posted from TSR Mobile

I agree, as an ex ukip member it makes more sense to vote conservative to give them a bigger majority and recent electoral success to push through brexit Posted from TSR Mobile

I'd want to see a poll putting them above 30% in the constituency before stating that. The Tories have a latent vote that is not guaranteed for the Kippers.

Tories have definitely won Copeland though.

I hope they do. Labour is insanity incarnate and populated by the worst kind of traitors, they shouldn't be allowed near any sort of position of power.

UKIP were polling at around 15-20% during and after the election. Post referendum they are now polling at a low 10%, sometimes single digits.

How is it misleading to speculate that UKIP may well go on to win the by-election? I don't think that is misleading at all, just take a look at Richmond Park how Zac was expected to win but he didn't - same applies here, labour are 'expected' to win based on decades of same old same old but could lose due to UKIP gains. No one has a crystal ball, it's merely an assumption.

Yes, polls have put UKIP 10pts above their rival labour. However of course polls are not always right....See links below:
http://www.westmonster.com/shock-poll-ukip-on-course-to-win-stoke-by-election/
http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/758428/Ukip-Paul-Nuttall-Stoke-Central-by-election

And how is it stupid to base who you vote for with consideration for your stance on the EUref? The lib dems based their victory in the byelection on the referendum - so they must be stupid too then.

I voted leave so I certainly would not vote labour, lib dems or the SNP.

What are you on? Pre election they were polling at around about the 11% mark, got 13% in the election, and then stayed around there for a bit after. In the months leading up the referendum this increased to high teens and then dropped back to the 11-13% mark. UKIP have ever only averaged high teens for short bursts, for the last 4 years they've otherwise hovered around about the 12-13% mark. UKIP is in the same place they were 20 months ago in terms of the headline polling figures.

It could make more sense - but it would be nice for the people of Stoke to put pressure on the Conservatives and Labour to make a loud statement - we voted to leave, don't dare interfere with democracy. Something that corbyn and his crew don't understand.



Hello, please see my links above for polls.

Speculation does not give you an ''expected'' result as your title suggests. If you had provided opinion polls showing a clear and strong UKIP lead then yes, I would say they are expected to win.

The sample size used in those polls was around 150-200, which is tiny and not very representative.

A leave vote does not imply a vote for a euroskeptic party. In the general election, around 45% of the vote went to parties with a clear euroskeptic platform and only 22% to a party with a clear intention to leave the EU. In the referendum 70% of people voted leave. Unless you want to make the case that some 25-48% of voters changed their minds inbetween the two votes, then clearly a significant percentage of those leave votes came from Labour voters. Hence it is possible for Stoke to continue being a Labour seat despite a leave voting electorate.






Using that data, if you look at the four months prior to the election you'll see UKIP poll an average of 14%, hitting 17's and even some 18's. If the take the last four months of data from today, they poll at an average of 12%. You can try this yourself, just copy/paste the information into excel.

Even from the graphs you can see this - before the election they were comfortably between 12.5% and 15% whereas after, and now, they've been edging 10%.

In the run up to the referendum they did grow in popularity but I think we could both agree that this was because of the referendum. They fell back quickly after.