* UKIP are expected to WIN the Stoke-Central By-election!! **

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HA! I can definitely agree, I have been reading news articles about it every day for the past few weeks.

I'm not staying up for it tho, it's too late when I have to be up at crack of dawn. But my phone will be out as soon as my eyes open.

It will be interesting to see the stats/psephology of the results. I really hope there is a big swing from Lab --> UKIP like there was in Richmond Park from Various Parties ----> LIB DEM.

However, I have a weird feeling of doubt if the swing will be enough.

I think it's accurate to say that CON will GAIN from LAB in COPE tho.

People think just because Stoke has been held for half a century, it will be held for eternity. Times have changed...

Just take a look at Dundee West (I posted this link on the 1st or 2nd page but I'm posting it again for reference sake..) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dundee_West_(UK_Parliament_constituency) where LAB held since 1950 until 2015 when SNP GAIN from LAB. LAB got absolutely wiped out.

Maybe the same will happen in Stoke tomorrow morning?

Must admit i've been been keeping a close eye, interesting to see Tory confidence for a closer second in Stoke.

My plan is to go to bed early (ish) so that i can watch an hour or two's repeat once i wake up.

Reply 81

Rakas21

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/feb/23/stoke-and-copeland-byelections-voting-almost-over-as-labour-hope-to-hold-seats-politics-live?page=with:block-58af5ebde4b030b6f7c8e7d3#block-58af5ebde4b030b6f7c8e7d3

Live Feed.

Reply 82

Rakas21

Reading the comment sections and various links, this chart here is one of the best explanations of why the Tories are going to win Copeland in which 56% of voters are C2DE..

https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/800/0*m0Tl7MT7y8JkLryu.

Reply 83

Saoirse:3

Original post by Rakas21

Link appears to be broken.

Reply 84

Rakas21

Original post by Saoirse:3

Link appears to be broken.

Rats. It basically shows the support for the parties over the past 2 years in the C2DE group. The Tories slowly climb, Laboour's drops like a stone.

Reply 85

user 42005

David Dimbleby has just said on QT that he has information suggesting Labour are most likely to win.

Reply 86

Rakas21

Original post by Count Bezukhov

David Dimbleby has just said on QT that he has information suggesting Labour are most likely to win.

Bookies implied a 68% chance for them before the polls closed.

The question is by how much (speculation from comments is that its low) and who will be second (Tories are not unhappy).

Imagine if Labour only hold Stoke by say 500 votes.. but from the Tories.

Reply 87

user 42005

Original post by Rakas21

I haven't been paying too much attention to voting attitudes pre-election, but I am looking forward to seeing them once released!

I think the plurality will be slim. The area is highly Leave-voting too, so I imagine UKIP will have done fairly well (especially as Comrade Corbyn is no longer representative of the traditional Labour voter, many voters will have defected).

Do you think the Tories will have done that well? May's tough stance on immigration will likely be seen as favourable, but whether it will be enough to attract large numbers of voters across is unclear. If they do manage to come second place overall though, that's very impressive given how traditionally Labour the area has been (and bodes well for May going into the 2020 election if Brexit negotiations go well enough).

Reply 88

Polka_Specs

UKIP could definitely do it which I will now explain.

Their vote has been increasing incrementally thoughout previous votes, not winning would be a failure for them.

Tristham should of never been the MP, a posh southerner doesn't play well with a clearly working class seat. At least UKIP generally field candidates which appeal and resonate with their voters. Typically a white old working class man who has a mail order bride to prove that their not racist.

Reply 89

Rakas21

Faisal Islam reporting that Stoke turnout is 38%. That's higher than expected but still relatively low so probably perfect for Labour (low enough that there's no army coming to massacre them, high enough that their voters turned out).

Reply 90

Rakas21

Copeland turnout is 51.4%.. Copeland is blue.

Reply 91

Polka_Specs

Apprently Copeland had 9k postal votes, which could easily be 1/3 of all votes cast.

Reply 92

SVanade_

if they win Corbs has to resign

Reply 93

Saoirse:3

Reports suggest UKIP may be doing as badly as coming 3rd in Stoke and 4th in Copeland - behind the Liberal Democrats.

Reply 94

username1148663

Original post by Saoirse:3

Reports suggest UKIP may be doing as badly as coming 3rd in Stoke and 4th in Copeland - behind the Liberal Democrats.

Yea they are finished as a potential seat winning force.

Yea they may get the third highest amount of overall votes in the country but nothing more than that

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Reply 95

Naveed.178

It's a shame UKIP didn't win but never mind.
It is what it is. Democracy is democracy. The Stoke public made their choice.

Reply 96

nulli tertius

Original post by Naveed-7

It's a shame UKIP didn't win but never mind.
It is what it is. Democracy is democracy. The Stoke public made their choice.

Well, most of them made the choice that it was cold, windy and wet and the Spurs game was on the TV.

Reply 97

username1148663

Original post by nulli tertius

Well, most of them made the choice that it was cold, windy and wet and the Spurs game was on the TV.

Well we will never know how the weather affected the result however if ukip was going to win a seat post referendum it was going to be a seat like this.

The vote is now splitting off to the conservatives meaning they won't win seats

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Reply 98

.A_C.

Original post by paul514

I think the weather played a big factor in both by-elections. I think all the controversy surrounding Paul was very damaging too, which is why I felt a spell of doubt last night..

And you are certainly right that CON will take the UKIP vote next time round in 2020, unless they get their act together which seems too late at this point.

Ah well, I lost a mere £10.00 on UKIP

Reply 99

nulli tertius

Original post by paul514

I think UKIP are a dead duck.

A significant thing, which confirms council by-election trends, is that the Liberals are back in business. This wasn't a promising seat for them. but they added 800 votes on 2015 with the same candidate on a much reduced turnout.

Apart from the Liberal showing, this was May's ideal result. There is enough in this for Corbyn to keep him in office, Nuttall is shown as a loser and almost a tie for second with little effort.