***** UKIP are expected to WIN the Stoke-Central By-election!! ******

Original post by astutehirstute

Someone else who can see the future! Remain voters are so gifted.

Feel like making yourself useful? Who is going to win the 3.30 at Kempton Park? :rolleyes:

It isn't the future, it's now. Do you ignore stories that you don't like to read?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38663537
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/24/citigroup-new-operations-away-london-brexit-eu-financial-hub
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/04/uk-credit-cards-borrowing-debt-economic-crash-fears

Reply 142

Rakas21

21

Original post by Fullofsurprises

It isn't the future, it's now. Do you ignore stories that you don't like to read?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38663537
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/24/citigroup-new-operations-away-london-brexit-eu-financial-hub
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/04/uk-credit-cards-borrowing-debt-economic-crash-fears

First article shows that 20% of their respective workforces are leaving.
Second article states that it is not in relation to the whole business but rather the investment arm.
The third is a genuine concern however i'm puzzled as to why those on the left who typically support loose monetary policy would complain that the BOE's actions have caused exactly what they hoped for. Worth saying though that households were sharply deleveraging post recession.

Reply 143

astutehirstute

11

Original post by Fullofsurprises

It isn't the future, it's now. Do you ignore stories that you don't like to read?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38663537
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/24/citigroup-new-operations-away-london-brexit-eu-financial-hub
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/04/uk-credit-cards-borrowing-debt-economic-crash-fears

There is no accounting for corporate stupidity I suppose, but I doubt that all these financial institutions will close down their operations in London before they even know what are the terms in which they will operate post Brexit.

And the answer to that lies in the future.

Unless you can tell us? What will the terms of the financial services deal be?

Why don't you go into your time machine, see what happens, and return to tell us on this thread?

Reply 144

Fullofsurprises

Original post by Rakas21

First article shows that 20% of their respective workforces are leaving.
Second article states that it is not in relation to the whole business but rather the investment arm.
The third is a genuine concern however i'm puzzled as to why those on the left who typically support loose monetary policy would complain that the BOE's actions have caused exactly what they hoped for. Worth saying though that households were sharply deleveraging post recession.

One in three companies are planning to take jobs out of the UK.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-third-manufacturing-firms-leave-uk-eu-article-50-report-kpmg-a7594606.html

This will result in a surge in unemployment to Thatcher-era levels. The most badly affected areas will be in the Midlands, the North, Scotland and Wales. Apart from Scotland, like sheep entering a slaughterhouse.

40% of US businesses with employees in the UK are planning to leave if we leave the Single Market.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-us-firms-trade-threat-london-eu-move-uk-relocate-move-report-a7473251.html

Yet May and Boris are actually proud of their role in securing a complete departure from the SM! :angry:

Only in a country twisted by years of heavily funded (largely from abroad) neo-fascist blather by UKIP and right wing Tories and their compliant media outlets could this grim prospect be seen as a good thing.

Reply 145

Rakas21

21

Original post by Fullofsurprises

One in three companies are planning to take jobs out of the UK.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-third-manufacturing-firms-leave-uk-eu-article-50-report-kpmg-a7594606.html

This will result in a surge in unemployment to Thatcher-era levels. The most badly affected areas will be in the Midlands, the North, Scotland and Wales. Apart from Scotland, like sheep entering a slaughterhouse.

40% of US businesses with employees in the UK are planning to leave if we leave the Single Market.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-us-firms-trade-threat-london-eu-move-uk-relocate-move-report-a7473251.html

Yet May and Boris are actually proud of their role in securing a complete departure from the SM! :angry:

Only in a country twisted by years of heavily funded (largely from abroad) neo-fascist blather by UKIP and right wing Tories and their compliant media outlets could this grim prospect be seen as a good thing.

Your article firstly points out that they are considering, not planning. Secondly that they are considering China and India in the main, not the EU (i.e. further offshoring) - essentially they using the opportunity to cut costs. It also points out that while a third are considering the move, 40% say it will have no impact. I also highlight that hiring intention across the sector is still positive.

Your second article is the more damaging and highlights the possibility that firms using the UK as a gateway to the EU may bypass us. The question in the long run will be to what degree we can become a global hub and a gateway for European and others to export outside the EU.

Reply 146

Original post by the bear

people are now looking at ukip and asking themselves what they bring to the picnic that Mrs May's Conservatives haven't already provided.
the answer seems to be the less savoury items on the patriotic menu.

Yep, Nuttall blamed losing on not being racist enough, erm, not banging on more about immigration.

Reply 147

Original post by astutehirstute

Why don't you go into your time machine, see what happens, and return to tell us on this thread?

If I had a time machine, a couple of deaths mean that we wouldn't be here.

To answer the other bit, as far as I can see there are two possible futures: not quite as good as in the EU and much, much worse.

Reply 148

the bear

Original post by unprinted

Yep, Nuttall blamed losing on not being racist enough, erm, not banging on more about immigration.

Mrs May has managed to distance herself and the party from Mr Cameron's upmarket shtick. Apart from her strange trousers there is nothing alarming about her.

Reply 149

Oh, I'm amused that people are still voting in the poll. Labour have just gone into the lead as the most likely to win.

Reply 150

L i b

Original post by Fullofsurprises

One in three companies are planning to take jobs out of the UK.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-third-manufacturing-firms-leave-uk-eu-article-50-report-kpmg-a7594606.html

This will result in a surge in unemployment to Thatcher-era levels. The most badly affected areas will be in the Midlands, the North, Scotland and Wales. Apart from Scotland, like sheep entering a slaughterhouse.

40% of US businesses with employees in the UK are planning to leave if we leave the Single Market.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-us-firms-trade-threat-london-eu-move-uk-relocate-move-report-a7473251.html

The idea of some sort of grand scale economic crash as a result of leaving the EU is, I think, pretty silly stuff. It's also the sort of thing that makes Remain voters look foolish - which is why I never advocated the we'll-have-a-recession-the-second-we-vote-leave school of thought. It was counterproductive because it wasn't remotely believable.

Leaving the EU will have negative effects, at least in the short to medium term. But that does not mean our economy will not still grow, employment will not still increase and trade will not continue at a high level. The EU is just one part of a wider economic mix.

Yet May and Boris are actually proud of their role in securing a complete departure from the SM! :angry:

This sort of talk seems to be predicated on a delusion: that there is some sort of "membership" of the single market separable and outside of the EU. There is no way to be outside the EU and not have our relations with the single market based by treaty and on varying levels of access and integration. The absolutes here like talking about "departure" don't really fit.

Reply 151

.A_C.

OP

14

Original post by unprinted

Oh, I'm amused that people are still voting in the poll. Labour have just gone into the lead as the most likely to win.

Yeah I have noticed that... I should have put the deadline at 22:00 on the night of the by-election, but I was not expecting people to bother voting after the results.

But it seems that people are trying to prove a point to me and others who watch the thread that Labour supporters are still in force.

However, they should all be concerned because you don't need a crystal ball to say the conservatives will win in 2020 (unless something dramatic happens before then), and the press have been saying they could have 400 seats - that would be a 100 seat majority!

So, they have nothing to prove.... they just need to expect the bumpy ride next time round!

Reply 152

Original post by L i b

This sort of talk seems to be predicated on a delusion: that there is some sort of "membership" of the single market separable and outside of the EU. There is no way to be outside the EU and not have our relations with the single market based by treaty and on varying levels of access and integration. The absolutes here like talking about "departure" don't really fit.

There is paying to be inside it, but not having a vote and accepting the four principles - it's what Norway and most of the rest of EFTA has. Farage was publicly advocating for this in the run up to the referendum. Switzerland, the other EFTA member, gets it slightly differently, but still at a cost. Some Leavers were advocating for that option too. (Cameron's mistake was not having these and other options on the ballot paper as separate options.)

But as denying the freedom of movement for people means that's not on, so May's heading for the cliff of being completely outside.

Reply 153

L i b

Original post by unprinted

There is paying to be inside it, but not having a vote and accepting the four principles - it's what Norway and most of the rest of EFTA has. Farage was publicly advocating for this in the run up to the referendum. Switzerland, the other EFTA member, gets it slightly differently, but still at a cost. Some Leavers were advocating for that option too. (Cameron's mistake was not having these and other options on the ballot paper as separate options.)

The EEA and Switzerland are not some sort of members of the single market though. Any expression of being within it is simply by dint of implementing its regulations and, across most sectors, engaging in tariff-free trade.

I appreciate there is a proximity there, but let's not get beyond ourselves: they engage with the EU through separate free trade agreements. The UK was never going to be in a different position, and realistically it wasn't ever going to be for us to pick an off-the-shelf model that has evolved to fit a certain group of small countries with fairly distinct interests of their own.

I accept an argument of proximity, but ultimately one free trade agreement does not make you 'inside' something while another does not. The "single market" is nothing more than convenient terminology for a limited freedom to trade, operate, move and so on. It's not like it's a consistent, homogeneous entity that you can attach yourself to. Even the four freedoms are differentially applied across the EEA: they are not consistent either.

Reply 154

Fullofsurprises

Original post by L i b

The idea of some sort of grand scale economic crash as a result of leaving the EU is, I think, pretty silly stuff. It's also the sort of thing that makes Remain voters look foolish - which is why I never advocated the we'll-have-a-recession-the-second-we-vote-leave school of thought. It was counterproductive because it wasn't remotely believable.

Leaving the EU will have negative effects, at least in the short to medium term. But that does not mean our economy will not still grow, employment will not still increase and trade will not continue at a high level. The EU is just one part of a wider economic mix.

This sort of talk seems to be predicated on a delusion: that there is some sort of "membership" of the single market separable and outside of the EU. There is no way to be outside the EU and not have our relations with the single market based by treaty and on varying levels of access and integration. The absolutes here like talking about "departure" don't really fit.

Let's see, shall we? The signs are all there that an economic storm will hit when we leave under the Boris/Theresa no-deal mentality. Most big companies and most of the serious economists globally think this is going to put a dent in the world economy, not just that of the UK.

We have a Tory political class who have given up concerning themselves with things like economic strength or the success of our business sector and are now wholly obsessed with the issue of immigration, which is wildly overblown anyway, purely because they lack the skills to get to grips with motormouth Farage and because the right wing media beast that they love and tend has taken over what used to pass for politics.

Of course we would need to make new deals about tariffs and trading terms, but the May government have already made it clear they want no such deals, which puts us squarely in WTO-only territory, which inevitably means surging prices, protectionism, lack of access and mass departures of big firms in many economic sectors. Not to mention spiralling inflation and mass unemployment.

Reply 155

username1148663

21

Original post by Fullofsurprises

Let's see, shall we? The signs are all there that an economic storm will hit when we leave under the Boris/Theresa no-deal mentality. Most big companies and most of the serious economists globally think this is going to put a dent in the world economy, not just that of the UK.

We have a Tory political class who have given up concerning themselves with things like economic strength or the success of our business sector and are now wholly obsessed with the issue of immigration, which is wildly overblown anyway, purely because they lack the skills to get to grips with motormouth Farage and because the right wing media beast that they love and tend has taken over what used to pass for politics.

Of course we would need to make new deals about tariffs and trading terms, but the May government have already made it clear they want no such deals, which puts us squarely in WTO-only territory, which inevitably means surging prices, protectionism, lack of access and mass departures of big firms in many economic sectors. Not to mention spiralling inflation and mass unemployment.

You're funny.

Can I have a go in your time machine too?

I'd like to visit May 2016 again

Posted from TSR Mobile

Reply 156

Midlander