2018 could see a second Scottish Referendum

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=/amp/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/09/nicola-sturgeon-autumn-2018-common-sense-time-second-independence/amp/&ved=0ahUKEwibn-qh3cvSAhUnDsAKHUNcByEQFghPMAY&usg=AFQjCNGnkSfmIr0otfZu2h4K7lvTvK8DSw&sig2=Elz_rw6QIXbFr93HOrH4UA

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon had suggested that Autumn 2018 could be the date for a second referendum on Scottish independence from the UK. Polls suggest that there has been a slight increase in the support for Scottish independence since the EU Referendum in June last year:
some polls suggest a 50/50 split.

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://whatscotlandthinks.org/opinion-polls&ved=0ahUKEwiwgNaa38vSAhUDC8AKHR3nAXgQFggmMAE&usg=AFQjCNEvIZFUHsxMG7bOM1NctARzvqzwbQ&sig2=wwihxMtgXtRLjKpdpOHkDQ

Personally, I can't see how the SNP believes that Scotland could be better off independent. I'm not saying that Scotland couldn't survive without the UK but I cannot understand how some believe that Scottish economy wouldn't suffer to a moderate to large extent.

1 - Oil in the North Sea - The price of oil had dropped significantly over the past couple of years. Shale gas, predominantly from the US, has severely strained OPEC & caused global price falls. If even nations like Saudi Arabia now can't stop the tide of shale then what hope does Scotland have against it? The price of a barrel of oil was at $110 a few years ago. Now it's only about half that so where would an independent Scotland get money for its public services from?

2 - the EU - Should an independent Scotland wish to join the European Union, they'd be blocked by nations like Spain. Spain, for example, would be very reluctant to display any kind of behaviour that could encourage the succesion Catalonia. Belgium could may also block any attempt to join as it too has issues. It's possible that Scotland may eventually be allowed into the EU but to expect this to be quickly done is ridiculous.

3 - Scotland's Deficit - As of August 2016, the UK's deficit was 4%. Scotland's was 9.5%. How the SNP could hope to keep public spending in Scotland at its current levels without substantial tax rises is ridiculous. Scotland would not be able to join the EU until it got its deficit below 3 per cent. So an independent Scotland would right now be facing a choice: state spending down by 15 per cent, taxes up by 19 per cent, or a combination of the two.

4 - Defence of the Realm - It's the SNP would demand the removal of the UK's nuclear deterrent from Faslane despite the fact that this base provides skilled and highly paid work.
It's also unclear how Scotland would afford any kind of armed forces. NATO requires a 2% of GDP commitment (which the SNP is split on joining anyway) but I imagine Scotland could probably get away with less as much or the rest of NATO does too. However Scotland would almost certainly have to rely on the UK due to reluctance of the SNP to finance anything other than basic military forces. A Scottish air force for example probably wouldn't consist of anything more advanced than Hawk T2 jets. Compared to the Typhoon the RAF currently uses for QRA then the effectiveness of these aircraft would be laughable.

5 - Sterling - Should the UK government allow Scotland to keep using the pound, the Bank of England would set Scotland's interest rates and may also control how much a Scottish government can spend. As seen with the Euro, this can lead to disaster would nations suffering from different economic issues each attempting to influence control of the currency.

That's my view as a Brit who certainly believes the UK would be better as one. It's certainly fair to say that Scotland has pulled its weight in the past & is an important contributor to the UK and the Commonwealth (and previously the Empire). I'm also very much a fan of the Scottish highlands, countryside & mountains - their natural beauty is almost unmatched when compared to the rest of the UK.

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/08/independent-scotland-now-bankrupt/

https://www.greatbritishpolitics.co.uk/magazine/169-scotland-can-t-survive-alone-and-9-other-lies.html

Reply 1

username1148663

21

No it won't

Posted from TSR Mobile

Reply 2

MildredMalone

16

Urgh, just why? A referendum like that should be once a decade at the very least, not every few years until the mediocre at best FM gets the result she wants.

Reply 3

999tigger

19

Nope and especially not right in the middle of Brexit talks. She will carry on pushing till she gets the results she wants.

Reply 4

Dodgypirate

6

Just let them leave, who cars.

Reply 5

username917703

17

Original post by 999tigger

Nope and especially not right in the middle of Brexit talks. She will carry on pushing till she gets the results she wants.

Agree.

Reply 6

Sephiroth

18

Let them have a referendum every year until they get the result they want. That's how democracy works right?

Reply 7

L i b

19

In many ways, it's difficult to expect nationalists to stop being nationalists, no matter how much they get defeated. In short, they either have to be beaten in a straight-up election (or, at least, one that creates a pro-Union majority in the Scottish Parliament) or else someone - inevitably the UK Government - simply has to say no at some point.

The OP raises a number of good points, but the problem is that nationalists do not need to believe that what they do will improve lives: they want to separate from the rest of the UK for its own sake. All the economic arguments in the world will not suddenly convince them otherwise.

I'd make a minor correction: the issues around oil revenue in the North Sea are far from just a question of the oil price. The North Sea is becoming mature, it's got one of the highest extraction costs of any oil field in the world, there are huge costs being paid out in reliefs for decommissioning. Even with we had a guarantee $100+ oil price for decades, the idea that the North Sea can fund Scottish independence is bunkum; those days are over.

Original post by Dodgypirate

Just let them leave, who cars.

You do appreciate, I hope, that the majority of Scottish people do not want to leave the UK. Indeed, a great deal of Scottish people have done far more to fight for the unity of the United Kingdom than all but a few people in England.

Reply 8

Snufkin

Universities Forum Helper

21

I don't want the UK to break up, but I think there will be another independence vote in 2018, and I would not be surprised if the nationalists won. In pro-Remain and Tory-phobic Scotland, the prospect of a hard Brexit and another decade of the Conservatives in power with no functioning opposition may just be enough to tip the scales.

Reply 9

username402722

19

Can we all have a vote?

Reply 10

Aph

22

I do hope they leave

Posted from TSR Mobile

Reply 11

Snufkin

Universities Forum Helper

21

Original post by Aph

I do hope they leave

Posted from TSR Mobile

Why? The Balkanisation of the British Isles will not be a pretty sight.

Reply 12

L i b

19

Original post by Snufkin

I don't want the UK to break up, but I think there will be another independence vote in 2018, and I would not be surprised if the nationalists won. In pro-Remain and Tory-phobic Scotland, the prospect of a hard Brexit and another decade of the Conservatives in power with no functioning opposition may just be enough to tip the scales.

I'm not sure I buy this "Tory-phobic" stuff any more. We're talking about the second largest party in Scotland, the official opposition, a party that has more seats in the Scottish Parliament than the SNP had before it took power in 2007. Much of the anti-Tory rhetoric was inherently nationalist anyway - those people are not sitting there waiting to be won over to Scottish independence, they supported it years ago.

As for pro-Remain, well, that's true - but I still maintain the vast majority of people don't give all that much of a damn about the EU. Still, it is a risk, particularly among middle-class no voters. But I would point you to this YouGov analysis which shows that actually there were more people who switched from pro-independence to pro-union because they were Leave voters than there were people who switched to being pro-independence because they were Remain voters.

Reply 13

ThomH97

21

I think there is no real reason to object to having a referendum, even if the case for Scottish independence has weakened in some ways. Membership of the EU was a rather large factor for many Scots who voted to stay in the UK, and that has now changed. It is not simply a rerun with a weaker case for leaving, Scotland's voters who wanted to remain as part of a larger union now have a lot more the think about.

Reply 14

L i b

19

Original post by ThomH97

I think there is no real reason to object to having a referendum, even if the case for Scottish independence has weakened in some ways. Membership of the EU was a rather large factor for many Scots who voted to stay in the UK, and that has now changed. It is not simply a rerun with a weaker case for leaving, Scotland's voters who wanted to remain as part of a larger union now have a lot more the think about.

Yet the people of Scotland voted no, on the suggestion that the referendum would be "once in a generation", knowing full well that foreign affairs would remain reserved and that the Conservatives were proposing an in-out referendum on EU membership - indeed, the SNP even used it in their campaigning material.

Indeed, it makes me furious, as a Remain voter in Scotland, that the sort of backwards nationalism I thought I was voting against on 23 June last year is somehow co-opting my Remain vote to further their position. It's not even as if the Scottish nationalists care about EU membership, it's straightforwardly hi-jacking the position for the only cause they care about.

Reply 15

ThomH97

21

Original post by L i b

Yet the people of Scotland voted no, on the suggestion that the referendum would be "once in a generation", knowing full well that foreign affairs would remain reserved and that the Conservatives were proposing an in-out referendum on EU membership - indeed, the SNP even used it in their campaigning material.

Indeed, it makes me furious, as a Remain voter in Scotland, that the sort of backwards nationalism I thought I was voting against on 23 June last year is somehow co-opting my Remain vote to further their position. It's not even as if the Scottish nationalists care about EU membership, it's straightforwardly hi-jacking the position for the only cause they care about.

Would Scotland have voted the same way in their referendum had they known the result of the EU referendum? I think that was a large enough factor for enough voters that pushing for a second Scottish referendum is not unreasonable at all. I do feel that the SNP would try to hijack a discussion on whether Coke or Pepsi was better if they thought it could get more people to want to leave the UK, but membership of the EU is a non-trivial issue that many Scottish voters would have taken into heavy consideration.

Reply 16

Tempest II

OP

16

I'd certainly be interested to here from SNP supporters who believe Scotland could be successfully independent in the current climate. There must be some on this site.

Reply 17

meenu89

19

She will need to be careful as if this referendum is lost, that's it, game over for the SNP.

Reply 18

username521617

17

Original post by MildredMalone

Urgh, just why? A referendum like that should be once a decade at the very least, not every few years until the mediocre at best FM gets the result she wants.