The Student Room Group

Are the Tory days numbered?

We saw at the last general election (2017) a huge rise in the lab youth vote - mostly because of one thing: house prices. My feeling is that in the next general election, say in 5 years, if Theresa May as PM and the DUP are still screwing the youth with house prices/tuition fee rises, there will be a huge Tory wipeout similar to when Blair came to power. This is based on two things:

1) House Prices/Rent - if they continue to rise, in 5 years time, when there is a larger percentage of youth being screwed over by this, they'll be an ever growing lab vote.
2) Immigration - If the Tories don't cut it, lab will get more votes as the majority of immigration tend to vote lab (take London for example).

These two things, alongside the death of traditional 'old granny' Tory voters in the next 5 years, might, I feel, give lab a huge victory next general election.

So, really, whatever the Tories do, they're days are numbered - unless they (a) fix house prices (b) reduce immigration - I feel their loss is otherwise inevitable (just as a matter of logic/common sense really).

Would you agree with my argument?

Scroll to see replies

1. Nothing wrong with high house prices if you own property If you don't, tough. Worker harder. It is what successful people do.

2. Labour is responsible for most third world immigration. The Conservatives have had to maintain it because native working class people are of such poor stock that most have no economic value.

The next election will see A STRONG AND STABLE Conservative government in power.
Original post by Whiskey&Freedom
1. Nothing wrong with high house prices if you own property If you don't, tough. Worker harder. It is what successful people do.

2. Labour is responsible for most third world immigration. The Conservatives have had to maintain it because native working class people are of such poor stock that most have no economic value.

The next election will see A STRONG AND STABLE Conservative government in power.


lol
Original post by Whiskey&Freedom
1. Nothing wrong with high house prices if you own property If you don't, tough. Worker harder. It is what successful people do.

2. Labour is responsible for most third world immigration. The Conservatives have had to maintain it because native working class people are of such poor stock that most have no economic value.

The next election will see A STRONG AND STABLE Conservative government in power.


You have to be a parody.
Original post by Whiskey&Freedom
1. Nothing wrong with high house prices if you own property If you don't, tough. Worker harder. It is what successful people do.


If everyone works harder to buy something there isn't enough of for everyone, then it just becomes expensive enough that everyone can't afford it.

And are you going to tell a nurse, fireman, junior doctor, teacher, or any other number of professions that aren't well paid relative to the work they do to just work harder?

Your post reeks of a lack of empathy or understanding of how real people live and work, and contentment for your own fortunate position. Some people can't just work harder, they are working at the level of their own competency and the reward for that is insufficient to survive.
Original post by BigYoSpeck
If everyone works harder to buy something there isn't enough of for everyone, then it just becomes expensive enough that everyone can't afford it.

It is a competitive market. Raise your game.

And are you going to tell a nurse, fireman, junior doctor, teacher, or any other number of professions that aren't well paid relative to the work they do to just work harder?


Nothing stops them from changing careers or setting up a successful business besides their own lack of initiative and poor work ethic.
Original post by Whiskey&Freedom
It is a competitive market. Raise your game.


As many girls will attest I ain't got no game bro!

Nothing stops them from changing careers or setting up a successful business besides their own lack of initiative and poor work ethic.


You think all public services staff should abandon those positions or on top of their existing workloads just run a side business?
I wish they were but sadly doubt it. Especially if Scotland becomes independent.
Reply 8
I don't really buy that, the new, young and small party voters got them to about 35%, the rest were 2015 Tories who can be won back with a broader and more positive policy offer.
Original post by Voi
We saw at the last general election (2017) a huge rise in the lab youth vote - mostly because of one thing: house prices. My feeling is that in the next general election, say in 5 years, if Theresa May as PM and the DUP are still screwing the youth with house prices/tuition fee rises, there will be a huge Tory wipeout similar to when Blair came to power. This is based on two things:

1) House Prices/Rent - if they continue to rise, in 5 years time, when there is a larger percentage of youth being screwed over by this, they'll be an ever growing lab vote.
2) Immigration - If the Tories don't cut it, lab will get more votes as the majority of immigration tend to vote lab (take London for example).

These two things, alongside the death of traditional 'old granny' Tory voters in the next 5 years, might, I feel, give lab a huge victory next general election.

So, really, whatever the Tories do, they're days are numbered - unless they (a) fix house prices (b) reduce immigration - I feel their loss is otherwise inevitable (just as a matter of logic/common sense really).

Would you agree with my argument?


The flaw in your argument is that there aren't the young people left to achieve this win, and a hard left Labour focusing on student politics will just lose elections by alienating the middle aged and middle class, the only reason Corbyn did so well is that May ran a dreadful campaign and took parts of the electorate for granted. The other thing is that you seem to be assuming that political views are static; you know those "old granny" tory voters? Most of them probably voted labour 50 years ago. The people who heavily voted leave last year, they voted remain 40 years ago. People are Labour voters until they want good government rather than handouts. A student will vote Labour if you promise to give them "free" tuition fees and a load of hand outs, then they grow up and have a job they want security in, a mortgage and savings for which they want a stable economy, a family they want to keep safe- suddenly the handouts don't matter. Most people don't stay trots forever.

And that's before Labour descend into civil war, they're no good at coups.
(edited 6 years ago)
Reply 10
Original post by Jammy Duel
The flaw in your argument is that there aren't the young people left to achieve this win, and a hard left Labour focusing on student politics will just lose elections by alienating the middle aged and middle class, the only reason Corbyn did so well is that May ran a dreadful campaign and took parts of the electorate for granted. The other thing is that you seem to be assuming that political views are static; you know those "old granny" tory voters? Most of them probably voted labour 50 years ago. The people who heavily voted leave last year, they voted remain 40 years ago. People are Labour voters until they want good government rather than handouts. A student will vote Labour if you promise to give them "free" tuition fees and a load of hand outs, then they grow up and have a job they want security in, a mortgage and savings for which they want a stable economy, a family they want to keep safe- suddenly the handouts don't matter. Most people don't stay trots forever.

And that's before Labour descend into civil war, they're no good at coups.


You seem to have missed my main point, which is that the percentage of young people who will vote lab is increasing, not decreasing as you seem to think. This is because house prices are increasing faster than wages. So, in 5 years, they'll be a larger percentage of young professionals who can't afford a house, can't afford rent, and will be pigeonholed into house shares and studio apartments in poor areas. This will ensure that they remain labour voters well into their late 20s and 30s, and perhaps even the rest of their lives if they face the prospect of having to rent until retirement. Generally, Tory voters = own house, labour voters = rent. Unless the property maket crashes anytime soon, I can only see more and more young professions living unfulfilled lives by having to rent. You speak very much about wanting security, but this new generation of young professionals won't have it, as the only way to ensure financial security is through owning a house - an asset which is becoming ever more out of reach for them
(edited 6 years ago)
Original post by Jammy Duel
The flaw in your argument is that there aren't the young people left to achieve this win, and a hard left Labour focusing on student politics will just lose elections by alienating the middle aged and middle class, the only reason Corbyn did so well is that May ran a dreadful campaign and took parts of the electorate for granted. The other thing is that you seem to be assuming that political views are static; you know those "old granny" tory voters? Most of them probably voted labour 50 years ago. The people who heavily voted leave last year, they voted remain 40 years ago. People are Labour voters until they want good government rather than handouts. A student will vote Labour if you promise to give them "free" tuition fees and a load of hand outs, then they grow up and have a job they want security in, a mortgage and savings for which they want a stable economy, a family they want to keep safe- suddenly the handouts don't matter. Most people don't stay trots forever.

And that's before Labour descend into civil war, they're no good at coups.

Considering Labour got more votes in the 35-44 category, your assertion that the main people who voted Labour were young people wanting handouts is nonsense. This age group is a core mortgage paying, family raising group too.
(edited 6 years ago)
Original post by Rakas21
I don't really buy that, the new, young and small party voters got them to about 35%, the rest were 2015 Tories who can be won back with a broader and more positive policy offer.

Again, you were predicting a massive Tory majority. Whole areas of the country such as Yorkshire became increasingly red. Places such as Wrexham and Bridgend were areas in which Labour increased their majority despite you saying they would definitely turn blue.

Politics is unpredictable and neither me nor you nor any commentator or politician has a clue what will happen.
(edited 6 years ago)
Original post by Bornblue
Again, you were predicting a massive Tory majority. Whole areas of the country such as Yorkshire became increasingly red. Places such as Wrexham and Bridgend were areas in which Labour increased their majority despite you saying they would definitely turn blue.

I find it strange that people who got the last election spectacularly wrong are suddenly so sure they can predict what will happen in the next one.

Politics is unpredictable and neither me nor you nor any commentator or politician has a clue what will happen.


Ah, i have not said the Tories will win (as in predict), just that i don't have the lack of faith in them that OP does.

Indeed.
Original post by Rakas21
Ah, i have not said the Tories will win (as in predict), just that i don't have the lack of faith in them that OP does.

Indeed.

It's becoming increasingly clear that all these commentators and pundits are no more insightful or capable of spotting trends than people on here.

The media throughout the election constantly went on about how many people who 'had voted Labour all their lives' were voting Tory yet it turned out more 2015 Tories voted Labour than the other way round.

Yet how many media outlets picked up the trend of large numbers of former Tory voters going Labour?
Original post by Bornblue
It's becoming increasingly clear that all these commentators and pundits are no more insightful or capable of spotting trends than people on here.

The media throughout the election constantly went on about how many people who 'had voted Labour all their lives' were voting Tory yet it turned out more 2015 Tories voted Labour than the other way round.

Yet how many media outlets picked up the trend of large numbers of former Tory voters going Labour?


The pundits are no different to you or i (aside from the paycheck), they largely appear to follow the polls.
Original post by Rakas21
The pundits are no different to you or i (aside from the paycheck), they largely appear to follow the polls.

Talking of polls ICM have changed their methodology again.

I'd actually like to see polling temporarily banned during election periods as I believe it has the potential to influence results.
Original post by Voi
You seem to have missed my main point, which is that the percentage of young people who will vote lab is increasing, not decreasing as you seem to think. This is because house prices are increasing faster than wages. So, in 5 years, they'll be a larger percentage of young professionals who can't afford a house, can't afford rent, and will be pigeonholed into house shares and studio apartments in poor areas. This will ensure that they remain labour voters well into their late 20s and 30s, and perhaps even the rest of their lives if they face the prospect of having to rent until retirement. Generally, Tory voters = own house, labour voters = rent. Unless the property maket crashes anytime soon, I can only see more and more young professions living unfulfilled lives by having to rent. You speak very much about wanting security, but this new generation of young professionals won't have it, as the only way to ensure financial security is through owning a house - an asset which is becoming ever more out of reach for them


This is the single biggest challenge for the Conservatives.

There is a very strong correlation between housing tenure and party voted for.

In the 2017 election:

53 per cent of home owners voted Conservative and 31 per cent voted Labour.

51 per cent of renters voted Labour and 32 per cent voted Conservative.

51 per cent who neither own their own home or rent voted Labour and 32 per cent voted Conservative.

The Conservatives have to do something about this or else every election will be fought in an increasingly difficult environment for them. They are losing ground to Labour more and more in London and London is a signal of the way other cities will go if housing trends continue.

The problem the Conservatives have here is their housing policy has generally been geared towards maintaining property prices, and supporting the interests of landlords whilst allowing the quality of rented property to deteriorate.

It's still possible for the Conservatives to gain ground in an environment where home ownership is difficult, if they can be seen as the party who ensures that people in rented accommodation have decent standards. But so many people these days who rent live in really poor conditions, and when you live in poor conditions you are angry because it massively affects your life.

When I look around my "echo chamber" of people I work with, live with, socialise with in London, it is basically made up of people aged between 21 and late 30s, mostly graduates of good unis, from differing income backgrounds but a lot from quite well off backgrounds, working in professions, lawyers, accountants, publishers, architects etc. They nearly all rent - and having previously been a mixture of Labour, Lib Dem, Green and the odd Tory voters, in 2017 seemed to be almost universally Labour.
third world immigration yes of countried we colonised and robber, destroyed When Brits mobe abroad they are ex pats , people coming here are immigrants. Perhaps if we did not invade their countries , prop uppro western dictators and suck up to the Saudis we would not have the displacment of people Most people are fed up of 30 years of so called market economics thats why a change is coming. If it had anything to do with immigration why did the Ukip vote collapse Crawl back into your Tory holes Make way for Corbyn a man who wants yo give us a fairer society
There is generally speaking a lot of denial still lingering within the Labour camp. People still cling to the notion that Labour either somehow won the election or morally won the election and/or that were we to have another election tomorrow, Labour would storm it.

This is all utter nonsense and nothing but misguided euphoria from the carefully spun media coverage and social network campaigns.

The Tories currently have no problems in terms of Labour. To recap the election results, Tories got 318 and Labour only 262. This means Labour performed as dismally as they did 7 years ago in the 2010 election where they mustered 258 seats.

What needs to be taken into account there is the fact that during this election:

1. Conservatives had a dire campaign
2. Labour had the support of young voters bribed by free tuition fee and student debt promises (that are in reality total vapourware)
3. Labour had the help of Remainers voting tactically to scupper BrExit. Their votes were not votes of support for Labour they were votes to keep Tories from having a BrExit mandate
4. Labour had the benefit of a number of young voters illegally voting more than once

With all that support, all those crutches, Labour SHOULD have performed way better than 7 years ago . . . yet they didn't.

Thus they actually went backwards and are in actuality in a very poor place.

Until this is understood and accepted the Labour supporters will remain in denial and thereby fail to make the vital changes they need to get anywhere near a position where they could win an election.

This is not sound bite and rhetoric. A Labour project/group called Labour Roadmap has now published its full analysis of the election results. You can read it here:

http://labourroadmap.org.uk/publications/ge17/report.pdf

Some of its comments include:

"despite electoral progress Labour has neither a majority, nor is it yet in a realistic position to form a government without another election and further gains."

"The situation in Scotland must be treated as a crisis for the party. The trends are significantly different than other regions, and emergence of a two-party dynamic in Scotland between the SNP and the Conservatives will only help deflate Labour’s vote through future tactical voting"

"The reality of the First Past the Post system has meant that Labour has failed to stitch a coalition from across the nation and converted success into results. In headline numbers, we are in territory that we haven’t been in since Gaitskell leadership into the 1959 general election.

The added worry is that we are no longer in the 1950s - minor parties still take a larger share of the popular vote despite the collapse of minor party vote share in this election"


This report/analysis concludes that to have any chance at all in any future election, Labour needs to target and campaign hard for 128 specific seats and of those they need to swing 82 in their favour.

This is a very tall ask indeed.

In the end, the truth is that Labour are nowhere near a position where they could actually win an election. All the chirpy singing and hutzpah of the young chanting "Oh Jeremy Corbyn" isn't going to aid your cause. In fact it deepens the divide you face. Labour HAS to appeal to the real working class and the generation over 50. These are some of the people the youth claims to hate, The people they blame for BrExit. The thing is, these people have experience, something the youth doesn't yet have. They understand how political parties deceive voters and they DO take into account the histories of politicians.

There is one primary thing the Corbynites need to know and understand.

The people of this country will NEVER vote in a Marxist/Communist government. They know that doing so would be a disaster, a game over situation because in a Communist state, there is no democracy, you can not oppose, you can not voice opposition. Corbyn represents that world. He has a reprehensible history which, whilst the young stick their fingers in their ears and say blah blah blah, the rest of the country nevertheless understand and know that history, have witnessed it for real. Corbyn supported the IRA and counted Hamas and Hezbollah as friends. He is totally anti-EU and anti-monarchy. He is not patriotic in any sense of the word and is merely a hard-left Marxist Socialist.

He promises the earth but none of it is deliverable. Even his own MP has just undermined his blatant lies about eradicating student debts saying it would cost £100 billion. Corbyn would simply replace one set of elite with another. The same old story.

While he waxes lyrical about the poor and wanting to help others, he lives in his £million property and takes home a nice £114k salary.

More and more young people are imo realising that they were played and whipped up into a frenzy and duped by the promise of free tuition fees and no student debts. It just isn't going to happen.

So back to the original post here. Are the Tories days numbered?

The truth,

unequivocally no.

However much of an embarrassment people think it was for the Tories to lose their majority, the Tories nevertheless were MASSIVELY ahead of Labour, 318 seats to 262 and over a million more votes besides. That situation hasn't changed and Labour know it.

What you can totally count on now are these things:

1. Labour will lose some of the young vote rather than gain more of it as his vapourware false promises become realised

2. The Tories, who had a poor campaign, will now ramp up those efforts and properly go canvasing the seats that matter. Labour will NOT therefore have the luxury of a poor oppositional campaign in the next election.

3. As BrExit progresses and is sealed more completely, the Remainers will quit voting tactically as there will be no point. They will focus their efforts elsewhere. Therefore Labour will lose that crutch at the next election.

The Tories are already way way ahead in real terms. Labour has a monumental struggle on its hands to get anywhere near to an election winning position.

The truth is that it will be many many years before they are in power again.

The false media hype and self-indulgent congratulating of the "Oh Jeremy Corbyn" contingent is NOT helping the cause. In fact it is harming the cause immeasurably because there is and always has been one singular reason why Labour is failing. One reason why it can't perform any better than it did in the 2010 election, why Labour is unpopular with the older generation, why Labour will never get back in power for many years . . . . .

That reason is

Corbyn

He HAS to go. Plain and simple.

The perceived ground made at the election muddies the waters but doesn't change the truth. It has made it harder for the 100 or so MPs who were poised to oust Corbyn, to actually do so, and that's the downfall of the current situation.

The Tories then have no problems. Sure they will likely elect a new leader, and great if they do. The fact is they are WAY ahead of Labour in seats and votes.

Corbyn HAS to go. Any way you cut it, you will gain no ground until that realisation sinks in.

In short Corbyn and all the stupid hard-left socialist/communist MPs who have ruined the party need to go so that the Labour party can get back to it's more effective middle ground position.

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