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Car financing is going to cause the next financial crash
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Original post by WoodyMKC
Yeah, I mean all said and done it's all about personal preference. There are a lot of people that don't like the idea of paying money for something you don't get to keep (though these are often people who are renting their houses), but there are others who aren't bothered by that and realise that it's not only cost effective but also means getting something reliable. I hate driving around getting nervous every time I hear a strange noise thinking my car's about to break down 
whereas since I'm driving around in something brand new that gets a free service once a year I'm not worried about that so it's all part of the package for me.
whereas since I'm driving around in something brand new that gets a free service once a year I'm not worried about that so it's all part of the package for me.So at what point would you advise someone to stop doing a 3 year cycle of lease to get new cars?
I have a theory that PCPs and leases are good for smaller and mid range priced cars which can be changed every 3 years till someone becomes older and if they can afford to buy a car like the E class which is over 40K. It doesnt make sense to lease, I think then the individual should aim to pay off the car till they own it because top spec german cars like bmw, audi's will last easily 10 years ( from brand new ) without many drastic problems compared to smaller hatchbacks like vuaxhall and ford which are not that reliable.
Your thoughts?
(edited 6 years ago)
Original post by Xopher_
It's a valid strategy seeing as cars are just money pots and owning one has no purpose, when you could just move onto a better and more reliable one, but cars nowadays are reliable even past the 100k mile mark if it hasn't been treated like ****, in which case it would be worth paying for the car in full instead of leasing, if you know what car you want to own for a lifetime. I think fixing things that go wrong with your car is part of the experience as well, even though it would rarely come to that extent 
See my previous post lol, i thin you and me are on the same page.
Original post by sachinisgod
So at what point would you advise someone to stop doing a 3 year cycle of lease to get new cars?
I have a theory that PCPs and leases are good for smaller and mid range priced cars which can be changed every 3 years till someone becomes older and if they can afford to buy a car like the E class which is over 40K. It doesnt make sense to lease, I think then the individual should aim to pay off the car till they own it because top spec german cars like bmw, audi's will last easily 10 years ( from brand new ) without many drastic problems compared to smaller hatchbacks like vuaxhall and ford which are not that reliable.
Your thoughts?
I have a theory that PCPs and leases are good for smaller and mid range priced cars which can be changed every 3 years till someone becomes older and if they can afford to buy a car like the E class which is over 40K. It doesnt make sense to lease, I think then the individual should aim to pay off the car till they own it because top spec german cars like bmw, audi's will last easily 10 years ( from brand new ) without many drastic problems compared to smaller hatchbacks like vuaxhall and ford which are not that reliable.
Your thoughts?
Whenever they feel they want to. As I said, buying a car and selling it when you're done with it isn't at all always a more cost effective method of running a car.
Granted, leasing a very expensive car is going to be pricey, but then so is buying one and the cost of repairs tends to be proportionate to the price of the car. So however you go about it, a higher end car costs more to keep. The thing with German cars is, they're just supposedly more likely to be reliable, but this is absolutely no guarantee and is mostly something that gets parroted from person to person with no real truth behind it.
Original post by sachinisgod
See my previous post lol, i thin you and me are on the same page.
We are on the same page lol. Fords and Vauxhalls are easy to lease and replace because of how cheap they are to make in the masses for the companies, but how many people do you see leasing m2's, rs6's, rs3's or at the lowest end a golf r? No one because the majority of them want to own a car that is their signature car, they can mod however they want, and they can commit to like a relationship haha. Once you get past the £35k brand new mark you never lease because it's just not cost efficient, especially when you are looking for a car to own a lifetime. Golf R's are £20k used with 10k miles and they could well live into the 150k miles, you could own it for at least 10-15 years if you look after it well. Yet they cost £350 a month to lease? If you wanted to lease Golf R's for 10 years it would cost at least £40k not counting that car prices just keep going up and up, whereas you could just buy a used one for £20k and have it last the same amount of time, yet it would only cost probably £25k (including all maintenance), and the best part is you own it for it's lifetime.
High performance/luxury cars buy used
Low end every day cars go lease (except I bought my corsa in full because it could well last 10+ years as a runaround car with 25k miles on it currently). There is no point in selling it ever because I'd only get 2-3k by the time it comes to selling it. Rant over
Original post by Xopher_
We are on the same page lol. Fords and Vauxhalls are easy to lease and replace because of how cheap they are to make in the masses for the companies, but how many people do you see leasing m2's, rs6's, rs3's or at the lowest end a golf r? No one because the majority of them want to own a car that is their signature car, they can mod however they want, and they can commit to like a relationship haha. Once you get past the £35k brand new mark you never lease because it's just not cost efficient, especially when you are looking for a car to own a lifetime. Golf R's are £20k used with 10k miles and they could well live into the 150k miles, you could own it for at least 10-15 years if you look after it well. Yet they cost £350 a month to lease? If you wanted to lease Golf R's for 10 years it would cost at least £40k not counting that car prices just keep going up and up, whereas you could just buy a used one for £20k and have it last the same amount of time, yet it would only cost probably £25k (including all maintenance), and the best part is you own it for it's lifetime.
High performance/luxury cars buy used
Low end every day cars go lease (except I bought my corsa in full because it could well last 10+ years as a runaround car with 25k miles on it currently). There is no point in selling it ever because I'd only get 2-3k by the time it comes to selling it. Rant over
High performance/luxury cars buy used
Low end every day cars go lease (except I bought my corsa in full because it could well last 10+ years as a runaround car with 25k miles on it currently). There is no point in selling it ever because I'd only get 2-3k by the time it comes to selling it. Rant over
My parents bought a Toyota in 2005, we still have it and its nearly done 140K on the clock, weve had some repairs here and there but its still running ok, My dad bought a new merc a few years ago and after the PCP contract finished he got a bank loan to pay off the remaining balance because its such a powerful car it will last another 10 years if its serviced properly and looked after. No point getting another merc after 3 years when the current one is still brilliant.
I think PCPs have created an artificial mindset that they can afford a specific car when they actually cant, they are stuck in the cycle of just renting a car than actually owning it. People say that oh cars depreciate so much so why buy it outright.. i say why sell it after 3 years? If you use it for 7/8 years you wouldnt need to worry about depreciation. Just make sure its serviced every year and maintenance/repairs are done, that will cost way less than paying a finance company 7/8% interest just to have an artificial luxury to own a brand new car.
Original post by WoodyMKC
Whenever they feel they want to. As I said, buying a car and selling it when you're done with it isn't at all always a more cost effective method of running a car.
Granted, leasing a very expensive car is going to be pricey, but then so is buying one and the cost of repairs tends to be proportionate to the price of the car. So however you go about it, a higher end car costs more to keep. The thing with German cars is, they're just supposedly more likely to be reliable, but this is absolutely no guarantee and is mostly something that gets parroted from person to person with no real truth behind it.
Granted, leasing a very expensive car is going to be pricey, but then so is buying one and the cost of repairs tends to be proportionate to the price of the car. So however you go about it, a higher end car costs more to keep. The thing with German cars is, they're just supposedly more likely to be reliable, but this is absolutely no guarantee and is mostly something that gets parroted from person to person with no real truth behind it.
Very true but if you lose your job midway a lease or PCP contract and you cant keep up the payments, u lose the car and it affects your credit score.
Paying off and officially owning the car in 4/5 years means no matter what your personal circumstance, no one can take the car away from you. all you have to worry about is the petrol and servicing.
SO although both costs the same, one option has better security.
Original post by sachinisgod
My parents bought a Toyota in 2005, we still have it and its nearly done 140K on the clock, weve had some repairs here and there but its still running ok, My dad bought a new merc a few years ago and after the PCP contract finished he got a bank loan to pay off the remaining balance because its such a powerful car it will last another 10 years if its serviced properly and looked after. No point getting another merc after 3 years when the current one is still brilliant.
I think PCPs have created an artificial mindset that they can afford a specific car when they actually cant, they are stuck in the cycle of just renting a car than actually owning it. People say that oh cars depreciate so much so why buy it outright.. i say why sell it after 3 years? If you use it for 7/8 years you wouldnt need to worry about depreciation. Just make sure its serviced every year and maintenance/repairs are done, that will cost way less than paying a finance company 7/8% interest just to have an artificial luxury to own a brand new car.
I think PCPs have created an artificial mindset that they can afford a specific car when they actually cant, they are stuck in the cycle of just renting a car than actually owning it. People say that oh cars depreciate so much so why buy it outright.. i say why sell it after 3 years? If you use it for 7/8 years you wouldnt need to worry about depreciation. Just make sure its serviced every year and maintenance/repairs are done, that will cost way less than paying a finance company 7/8% interest just to have an artificial luxury to own a brand new car.
I never understood why people buy cars and then sell them a few years after? I think the problem is people never buy the car that they want, so they end up selling that car to get the car that they want, but by the time they buy that one they want another one and not the one they originally wanted lol. It's such a mind****. Just buy a solid car that you can be happy with for it's lifetime, then depreciation won't matter and you'll have a good chunk of money after 10 years to buy a new (or relatively new used) car which will bring just as much joy.
I'd rather be older and tell myself "I once owned a golf r, had it for 10 years and it was like my child, I got it modded etc..." rather than "I leased a few cars, couldn't do **** to them because I didn't own them, don't have many specific memories" it's just I'd rather carry meaning with my car rather than just hopping cars, because to some people their car is what they live for
It's like my grandad bought a jag for 12k 2.7 twin turbo diesel, it was a 2006 he bought it in 2012, it's probably only worth 4k now, but is it for sale? no. Is it still a 2.7 twin turbo diesel? yes. He will own it for the rest of his life but it's still a bomb car, just no one would want to buy it. It's still faster than the majority of cars lol
(edited 6 years ago)
No because we don't have banks gambling on it, it's a robust system backed up by capital with tons of liquidity unlike the mortgage crisis. Retail banks can actual create money through credit, car dealers don't create credit.
Ive read into this before, there's a stronger likelyhood of the mistakes of 2008 being repeated than car loans turning into a crisis, especially with trumps push for financial market deregulation (the ones protecting us from the mistakes made in 08)
Ive read into this before, there's a stronger likelyhood of the mistakes of 2008 being repeated than car loans turning into a crisis, especially with trumps push for financial market deregulation (the ones protecting us from the mistakes made in 08)
Original post by WoodyMKC
Sounds like you're confusing financing with leasing mate. With financing, which I see as a bad option because you're basically getting a loan off of the dealership at a markup to then buy the car off them, but you don't get to keep the car until the loan is paid. Leasing is basically renting, which as I detailed above can be very cost effective and I'm never going back to buying now, even though I have plenty of savings which are increasing and I could afford to buy a newish car.
You're not tied to the car either, you just pay your monthly fee until the contract is over, then you hand the car back - if you can't afford it anymore, you can end the contract early in most cases.
You're not tied to the car either, you just pay your monthly fee until the contract is over, then you hand the car back - if you can't afford it anymore, you can end the contract early in most cases.
you don't have to get a loan off the dealership though. Personal loan interest rates are so low at the moment that it can be cheaper to take out a personal loan and buy the car outright (which is what I'm about to do on a new car).
It really depends on the situation. I don't think there's really a "right" way to get a new car, at least not in every circumstance.
For me, I have leased cars for the past few years because my insurance was quite high as a new driver. Given my lease included everything, maintenance, tyres, insurance etc it was far cheaper. Now that my insurance is lower I actually find that its cheaper for me to get my next car with a mix of savings and a personal loan.
(edited 6 years ago)
Original post by WoodyMKC
Now I'm leasing a brand new Fiesta Titanium. I pay 200 a month, which includes EVERYTHING - insurance, servicing, repairs, breakdown, the lot - apart from petrol. Just over 2 grand a year, it's brand new so worry free, I'm not invested in the car if it gets written off and overall it likely works out cheaper than running an old grunter and certainly works out cheaper than buying a newer used car cause you're gonna lose a few grand in depreciation by the time you've owned it a few years and that's not even including the repairs and maintenance costs.I also get to hand it back in after my 3 year contract and get yet another brand new car.
Now I'm leasing a brand new Fiesta Titanium. I pay 200 a month, which includes EVERYTHING - insurance, servicing, repairs, breakdown, the lot - apart from petrol. Just over 2 grand a year, it's brand new so worry free, I'm not invested in the car if it gets written off and overall it likely works out cheaper than running an old grunter and certainly works out cheaper than buying a newer used car cause you're gonna lose a few grand in depreciation by the time you've owned it a few years and that's not even including the repairs and maintenance costs.I also get to hand it back in after my 3 year contract and get yet another brand new car.
I'll admit I've never looked at leasing, but instinctively I have to say it doesn't make sense that the average cost of repairs and depreciation is more than the cost of leasing over the same period - if it was how would the leasing companies make money? (I know they'll get good deals from the manufacturer and will benefit from economies of scale, but I doubt the savings are that great)
I realise there are other advantages - such as the fixed monthly cost - but I'd be very surprised if it works out cheaper on average to lease than to own.
Original post by WoodyMKC
Now I'm leasing a brand new Fiesta Titanium. I pay 200 a month, which includes EVERYTHING - insurance, servicing, repairs, breakdown, the lot - apart from petrol
That sounds really cheap. Where did you get that from?
Original post by CurlyBen
I'll admit I've never looked at leasing, but instinctively I have to say it doesn't make sense that the average cost of repairs and depreciation is more than the cost of leasing over the same period - if it was how would the leasing companies make money? (I know they'll get good deals from the manufacturer and will benefit from economies of scale, but I doubt the savings are that great)
I realise there are other advantages - such as the fixed monthly cost - but I'd be very surprised if it works out cheaper on average to lease than to own.
I realise there are other advantages - such as the fixed monthly cost - but I'd be very surprised if it works out cheaper on average to lease than to own.
It only works out less cost effective and more profitable to the dealer if you make it that way. Firstly, they'll always try and **** you with a broom handle over the price to make a tidy profit - a lot of people just assume the lease price is non-negotiable which isn't at all the case. Secondly, extras - these add several hundred to the price of your lease to add extra gadgets or trimmings, whereas they cost the dealer very little. They'll also incur very little expense to themselves to keep it repaired. So overall, it'll be at least as profitable for them to lease and then sell with a few year's depreciation as it would to just sell brand new, yet buying it brand new and then selling with a few year's worth of depreciation having maintained it yourself is likely not going to be as cheap as simply leasing it, assuming you're wise when it comes to setting up a contract.
(edited 6 years ago)
Original post by Mirey
That sounds really cheap. Where did you get that from?
Straight from Ford. You've gotta put the graft in to get a good price, though - would have cost me nearly 300 a month if I just went to them, asked for a lease and took their price. I shopped around with lease brokers, got a quote, then played a few off against each other with the old "I got this quote elsewhere but I'm not happy with it, can you do better?" then take that quote to someone else and repeat. Then took my quote to Ford when I couldn't get anyone to budge and asked if Ford could match it. I'm insured with Ford Insure as well so that means they can't try and screw themselves over when it comes to repairs
Original post by WoodyMKC
Straight from Ford. You've gotta put the graft in to get a good price, though - would have cost me nearly 300 a month if I just went to them, asked for a lease and took their price. I shopped around with lease brokers, got a quote, then played a few off against each other with the old "I got this quote elsewhere but I'm not happy with it, can you do better?" then take that quote to someone else and repeat. Then took my quote to Ford when I couldn't get anyone to budge and asked if Ford could match it. I'm insured with Ford Insure as well so that means they can't try and screw themselves over when it comes to repairs
Do you mind me asking your age? Wondering about insurance and whether they would care about a leased car being driven by a 17/18 year old
Original post by matthewparker34
Do you mind me asking your age? Wondering about insurance and whether they would care about a leased car being driven by a 17/18 year old
Could be a problem as most of them require you to have a bit of No Claims Bonus. Not saying all of them do and do have a search around, but it might work out more expensive. Honestly, I think for your first year or two you're best to get an old crapper that's cheap to insure until you've got some No Claims under your belt either way.
Original post by WoodyMKC
Could be a problem as most of them require you to have a bit of No Claims Bonus. Not saying all of them do and do have a search around, but it might work out more expensive. Honestly, I think for your first year or two you're best to get an old crapper that's cheap to insure until you've got some No Claims under your belt either way.
I thought so. Btw I don't think any car is cheap to insure for us nowadays no matter how old the car is. TBH I think some insurance companies want us to have newer cars as they have more safety features and are less of a risk supposedly
Original post by matthewparker34
I thought so. Btw I don't think any car is cheap to insure for us nowadays no matter how old the car is. TBH I think some insurance companies want us to have newer cars as they have more safety features and are less of a risk supposedly
My younger brother has just gotten his licence and started driving at the age of 17 and got insured on a 2000 Peugeot 106 for just over 800 quid. Doesn't get much better than that for that age tbh.
I think the issue is not that leasing is bad (I'm not a fan personally, but I can see why people like it), but that a lot of people are financing cars, and many of them are cars they can't afford.
If you can't afford to pay enough of a down payment to keep you ahead of the depreciation, then you can't afford the car. Which is probably most people who finance brand new cars. It means you owe more money than the car is worth, which obviously puts you in a very precarious position, especially since the kind of person that gets into this situation usually has precarious finances anyway.
Even leasing isn't a 100% solid bet. It relies on a stable overall economy, and that you have the money for your payment each month. There are any number of things that could go wrong and leave either you, or the industry as a whole, not in a great shape.
"Debt charities are on standby for a wave of distressed car buyers unable to honour deals that they will struggle to pay now that inflation is increasing strongly and their disposable incomes are shrinking. According to one observer, the industry is also vulnerable to the likely collapse in diesel car values, which could send many companies to the wall."
“PCP car finance relies on the lenders’ ability to realise guaranteed future values, which can only happen in a strong used car market; but if hundreds of thousands of diesel drivers were to use consumer law to return their PCP-financed cars early – passing the early-termination losses back to the lenders – the cost would be so great that many finance companies wouldn’t be able to cope. It’s no exaggeration to speculate whether this could become the next financial crisis,” Empson said."
- https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jun/10/car-loans-personal-contract-plans-vehicle-financial-crisis-pcp
"Our research suggests that the industry’s scope to sustain recent growth rates is increasingly at risk. In particular, the industry’s growing reliance on PCP has made it more vulnerable to macroeconomic downturns."
"and hence (c) made the car industry more vulnerable to negative shocks, including hikes in interest rates, exogenous falls in market prices of used cars, lengthening of the replacement cycle and changes in consumer tastes."
-https://bankunderground.co.uk/2016/08/05/car-finance-is-the-industry-speeding/
I doubt a car market crash would have the kind of effect that the housing market one did, but I don't doubt that it's coming at some point. The way we as a society are buying new cars is not sustainable. Too many people are buying new cars, which dilutes the used car market. If you dilute the used car market too much, prices drop, and the bottom drops out of the PCP market - seeing as payments are calculated based on residual value at the end of the term.
Personally, I love my 175,000 mile, 15 year old car. It owes me nothing and I spend less than £50/month on average on maintenance. The best thing is that it's immune to any changes in the financial markets.
If you can't afford to pay enough of a down payment to keep you ahead of the depreciation, then you can't afford the car. Which is probably most people who finance brand new cars. It means you owe more money than the car is worth, which obviously puts you in a very precarious position, especially since the kind of person that gets into this situation usually has precarious finances anyway.
Even leasing isn't a 100% solid bet. It relies on a stable overall economy, and that you have the money for your payment each month. There are any number of things that could go wrong and leave either you, or the industry as a whole, not in a great shape.
"Debt charities are on standby for a wave of distressed car buyers unable to honour deals that they will struggle to pay now that inflation is increasing strongly and their disposable incomes are shrinking. According to one observer, the industry is also vulnerable to the likely collapse in diesel car values, which could send many companies to the wall."
“PCP car finance relies on the lenders’ ability to realise guaranteed future values, which can only happen in a strong used car market; but if hundreds of thousands of diesel drivers were to use consumer law to return their PCP-financed cars early – passing the early-termination losses back to the lenders – the cost would be so great that many finance companies wouldn’t be able to cope. It’s no exaggeration to speculate whether this could become the next financial crisis,” Empson said."
- https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jun/10/car-loans-personal-contract-plans-vehicle-financial-crisis-pcp
"Our research suggests that the industry’s scope to sustain recent growth rates is increasingly at risk. In particular, the industry’s growing reliance on PCP has made it more vulnerable to macroeconomic downturns."
"and hence (c) made the car industry more vulnerable to negative shocks, including hikes in interest rates, exogenous falls in market prices of used cars, lengthening of the replacement cycle and changes in consumer tastes."
-https://bankunderground.co.uk/2016/08/05/car-finance-is-the-industry-speeding/
I doubt a car market crash would have the kind of effect that the housing market one did, but I don't doubt that it's coming at some point. The way we as a society are buying new cars is not sustainable. Too many people are buying new cars, which dilutes the used car market. If you dilute the used car market too much, prices drop, and the bottom drops out of the PCP market - seeing as payments are calculated based on residual value at the end of the term.
Personally, I love my 175,000 mile, 15 year old car. It owes me nothing and I spend less than £50/month on average on maintenance. The best thing is that it's immune to any changes in the financial markets.
(edited 6 years ago)
Original post by Anonymous
Everywhere you look, there are people with extremely average jobs driving brand new 17 plate cars because of these financed pcp arrangements.
Not only is it pretentious seeing people drive what they can't afford, they are going to cause the next financial crash.
I can't believe I've just seen a new Golf R parked outside the most rundown terraced houses where all the chavs/druggies live. I'm literally taller than the houses' bottom windows and if I stretched i could probably reach the top windows, it's that small. The car costs almost as much as the house.
My brother has the same Golf R but he bought it outright because he can afford to.
I dislike what's happened to the car industry. Our country has gone to **** when actual peasants can drive around in brand new cars.
If you finance a car because you can't afford it otherwise, you're a liability.
Not only is it pretentious seeing people drive what they can't afford, they are going to cause the next financial crash.
I can't believe I've just seen a new Golf R parked outside the most rundown terraced houses where all the chavs/druggies live. I'm literally taller than the houses' bottom windows and if I stretched i could probably reach the top windows, it's that small. The car costs almost as much as the house.
My brother has the same Golf R but he bought it outright because he can afford to.
I dislike what's happened to the car industry. Our country has gone to **** when actual peasants can drive around in brand new cars.
If you finance a car because you can't afford it otherwise, you're a liability.
fantasy finance. It's not securitised enough and ibanks don't deal with it, can't cause a financial crisis.
it's a valid concern and I've heard reports about the dangers of car financing causing a crash - however the reality is that cars as relatively low cost products (as opposed to a house) are quite secure. If you finance a new car and then a year down the line you can no longer afford it, the worst case scenario is that you incur a small amount of debt for a couple years and the car company takes the car back and sells it on at a normal depreciated price like they would anything else.
Because car financing is generally only ~3 years worth of money, even on expensive cars it's not going to amount to more than £10K or so. which in the grand scheme of things is not a massive amount of money. Unlike the housing crisis where houses that are worth 100s of thousands went kaput.
so the financers are in a very secure position.
As for your pretentiousness about poor people driving nice cars - what is wrong if someone chooses to spend their hard-earned money on a luxury like a nice car? I earn the average salary in the UK and choose to spend a significant portion of my income on my car, because I like having a car that's fun to drive. I've recently taken out a lease on a new 17 plate car; I can afford it, it's a more affordable way of running a car than buying a used car, and I can hand it back in 3 years hassle free.
Car manufacturers make their money by selling new cars not old ones... they have to make the cars affordable otherwise they wouldn't sell any. So there are plenty of good deals out there on new cars.
Because car financing is generally only ~3 years worth of money, even on expensive cars it's not going to amount to more than £10K or so. which in the grand scheme of things is not a massive amount of money. Unlike the housing crisis where houses that are worth 100s of thousands went kaput.
so the financers are in a very secure position.
As for your pretentiousness about poor people driving nice cars - what is wrong if someone chooses to spend their hard-earned money on a luxury like a nice car? I earn the average salary in the UK and choose to spend a significant portion of my income on my car, because I like having a car that's fun to drive. I've recently taken out a lease on a new 17 plate car; I can afford it, it's a more affordable way of running a car than buying a used car, and I can hand it back in 3 years hassle free.
Car manufacturers make their money by selling new cars not old ones... they have to make the cars affordable otherwise they wouldn't sell any. So there are plenty of good deals out there on new cars.
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