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'Hard Brexit with no trade deal could cost UK economy £400billion by 2030'

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-hard-no-trade-deal-agreement-leave-eu-single-market-uk-economy-cost-400-billion-pounds-a7994731.html

This is pretty shocking, especially since now with the state of Brexit negotiations the chance of a no-deal situation is looking higher and higher. As someone who supported remain at first, reluctantly, and then supported leave and then went back to remain and now support a soft Brexit, I guess I'm not a fan of the direction the EU is heading (i.e. greater integration) but a hard Brexit and worst of all a no-deal Brexit is beginning to look like a bit of a nightmare

I'm just lucky I wasn't old enough to vote so just in case we screw up my future kids can't blame me
(edited 6 years ago)

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I would rather have a Hard Brexit than stay in the future United States of Europe.

I'm sure a future in the Euro, with the same people who wanted TTIP will be great.
(edited 6 years ago)
£4 billion in the next 13 years? That's nothing at all.... Besides, the membership fees associated with EU membership are FAR more than that.
edit: at the time this was posted it said £4Bn so I just laughed at it because that would be pathetic.
(edited 6 years ago)
I recommend anyone on the left to look at this before they say that the Hard Brexit will destroy the British economy.

https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/labourleave/pages/1596/attachments/original/1504569589/new_model_economy_paper.pdf?1504569589
(edited 6 years ago)
It would be interesting to know how they've come to the conclusion that the effect on the EU will be the same regardless of any post-Brexit deal (and also what that number would be).

Of course it would also be fascinating to ask the likes of Juncker whether they consider maintaining their vision for Europe was worth triggering Brexit.
Reply 5
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Maker
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You can't put a price on freedom.
Reply 6
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FtheEU.
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We must remain in the EU
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Original post by Trapz99
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-hard-no-trade-deal-agreement-leave-eu-single-market-uk-economy-cost-400-billion-pounds-a7994731.html

This is pretty shocking, especially since now with the state of Brexit negotiations the chance of a no-deal situation is looking higher and higher. As someone who supported remain at first, reluctantly, and then supported leave and then went back to remain and now support a soft Brexit, I guess I'm not a fan of the direction the EU is heading (i.e. greater integration) but a hard Brexit and worst of all a no-deal Brexit is beginning to look like a bit of a nightmare

I'm just lucky I wasn't old enough to vote so just in case we screw up my future kids can't blame me


It could make them 400 billion, an asteroid may hit the earth and bird flu could mutate to a human form of virus.

No one knows what will happen.
Original post by balanced
£4 billion in the next 13 years? That's nothing at all.... Besides, the membership fees associated with EU membership are FAR more than that.


It says £400 billion. One number is larger than the other.
More and more scare stories. Only published because the publishers are scared that the EU project is falling apart.
Because the economic forecasts regarding brexit have been ultra accurate so far, based on the current track record that probably translates to £400bn extra output.
Original post by Maker
You can't put a price on freedom.


Of course you can and people do it all the time.
Is that a similar "could" to the £350m a week savings (£236bn to 2030) which "could" be spent on the NHS after brexit?
Original post by Jammy Duel
Because the economic forecasts regarding brexit have been ultra accurate so far, based on the current track record that probably translates to £400bn extra output.




"18 per cent loss of GDP growth by the end of the next decade."

If £400,000M is 18% of GDP growth, then GDP growth if we did have a trade deal would be £2,222,222M and it would be £1,822,222M if we didn't have a trade deal.

Our current GDP is £1,922,626M

I don't know about you, but I am not greedy. If the UK had a GDP of £3,744,848M by 2030 I would settle for that.

The problem with a trade deal is that it would take an awful lot of time and effort and be a major distraction from buying golden elephants to decorate the M6.

And the moral of this story is that it is a number plucked from thin air
(edited 6 years ago)
Reply 14
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Trapz99
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Original post by paul514
It could make them 400 billion, an asteroid may hit the earth and bird flu could mutate to a human form of virus.

No one knows what will happen.


Well isn't that reassuring?
Original post by Barmylord
I would rather have a Hard Brexit than stay in the future United States of Europe.


I still don't understand this argument. It is like saying, "I'd rather be outside the party in the rain with no food and drink, sitting in a puddle being spat on. After all, it is better than having to talk to people I sometimes disagree with."

How pathetic.
Original post by shawn_o1
More and more scare stories. Only published because the publishers are scared that the EU project is falling apart.


And the companies that are seriously looking to move out of the UK jobs and all? Are they scaremongering or just looking after their interests? How can you compete with Europe if all of your European imports / exports are subject to a duty and border delays?
Original post by Trapz99
Well isn't that reassuring?


That’s how the future works.
Original post by ByEeek
And the companies that are seriously looking to move out of the UK jobs and all? Are they scaremongering or just looking after their interests? How can you compete with Europe if all of your European imports / exports are subject to a duty and border delays?


Currency fluctuations are bigger than tariffs
Original post by ByEeek
I still don't understand this argument. It is like saying, "I'd rather be outside the party in the rain with no food and drink, sitting in a puddle being spat on. After all, it is better than having to talk to people I sometimes disagree with."

How pathetic.


He’s saying freedom from bondage is priceless.

Your analogy is terrible though, you make it sound like we have all chosen to become hunter gatherers rather than accept less growth(if you even accept the premise of the story)

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