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'Hard Brexit with no trade deal could cost UK economy £400billion by 2030'

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Original post by paul514
It could make them 400 billion, an asteroid may hit the earth and bird flu could mutate to a human form of virus.

No one knows what will happen.


You make it sound as if your random silly guesses hold equal weighting to actual economic studies. It's always non academics like you who think so simple-mindedly.
It's funny how Remainers don't even attempt to defend the ridiculously corrupt club they support. That same club that defies democracy to achieve its goal of federal Europe with undefined borders and ever increasing Islamism. No thanks.
Original post by Jammy Duel
Because the economic forecasts regarding brexit have been ultra accurate so far, based on the current track record that probably translates to £400bn extra output.


We don't know if any of them are accurate. Because guess what. We're still in the EU. The biggest concern is that the vast majority of reputable forecasts predict that brexit is going to do economic harm.

imagine being dumb enough to think that because economic forecasts haven't been accurate (which isn't true), it'll automatically mean the exact opposite will happen. You have reached peak stupidity. Well done.
Original post by itsfantanoo
You make it sound as if your random silly guesses hold equal weighting to actual economic studies. It's always non academics like you who think so simple-mindedly.


Did you even read how they got to their assumptions?
Do you realise that a 13 year forecast can never be even remotely right?
Do you even understand how many variables are involved?
Original post by paul514
Did you even read how they got to their assumptions?
Do you realise that a 13 year forecast can never be even remotely right?
Do you even understand how many variables are involved?


You're the one claiming that they're wrong. Therefore it's on you to refute their assumptions. Their assumptions are completely pragmatic.

Generic point is generic. Talking about it being impossible to control variables and predict doesn't make you right in saying that exactly the opposite can happen too. It's totally silly and laughable.

This is why you people will only be able to debate this sort of stuff on TSR instead of a legitimate academic environment. Because you can get away with making dumb comments. You're making it sound like some old tosser wrote this report.
Original post by Maker
You can't put a price on freedom.


Freedom? ****ing hell you're delusional.
Original post by IamJacksContempt
Freedom? ****ing hell you're delusional.


People who think the EU is progressive are delusional.
(edited 6 years ago)
Original post by Barmylord
People think the EU is progressive is delusional.


First of all, that sentence doesn't make sense.

Secondly, who claimed the EU is progressive?
Original post by Barmylord
I recommend anyone on the left to look at this before they say that the Hard Brexit will destroy the British economy.

https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/labourleave/pages/1596/attachments/original/1504569589/new_model_economy_paper.pdf?1504569589


It contains all the usual mantras of the hard right - reclaiming control of fisheries, which were hopelessly overfished in the days before the EU took over control, deregulation - which means fewer rights for working people - and ending the CAP, which is a good thing, but which the EU is anyway gradually moving towards.

Extending the Euro to the fringes of Europe was a huge mistake of course and will end badly, but it seems worthwhile to mention that the UK wasn't in it and never would be. Therefore up to now we have been part of EU trade whilst at the same time avoiding the worst side effects of Euro membership.

Of course, there is also the usual harping on about migration, whilst ignoring the huge job opportunities across the EU for British workers and also the simple fact that many economic migrants from E. Europe are returning home anyway.
Original post by paul514
He’s saying freedom from bondage is priceless.



But we won't be though. We will still be playing by international rules, treaties and agreements. The only difference is that we no longer have the same level of influence over our closest allies. And please don't tell me the US will fill that hole. The US has only ever cared about US interests.
Original post by itsfantanoo
You're the one claiming that they're wrong. Therefore it's on you to refute their assumptions. Their assumptions are completely pragmatic.

Generic point is generic. Talking about it being impossible to control variables and predict doesn't make you right in saying that exactly the opposite can happen too. It's totally silly and laughable.

This is why you people will only be able to debate this sort of stuff on TSR instead of a legitimate academic environment. Because you can get away with making dumb comments. You're making it sound like some old tosser wrote this report.


It doesn’t need to be refuted line by line, no long term economic forecast has ever been right.

Even the short term 1 year post referendum forecast was way out.
Original post by ByEeek
But we won't be though. We will still be playing by international rules, treaties and agreements. The only difference is that we no longer have the same level of influence over our closest allies. And please don't tell me the US will fill that hole. The US has only ever cared about US interests.


What? We will be making our own laws you’re going on about random crap.

People who care about sovereignty as their reason for brexit only care about law making.
Original post by paul514
What? We will be making our own laws you’re going on about random crap.

People who care about sovereignty as their reason for brexit only care about law making.


He's right about WTO rules dictating the quality of our exports :wink: we'd still be in NATO wrt defence. But yeah laws regarding humans would be under our control (and our gov has no excuse to not implement them properly)
Original post by paul514
It doesn’t need to be refuted line by line, no long term economic forecast has ever been right.

Even the short term 1 year post referendum forecast was way out.


I rest my case.

Sorry what? You're being vague. Please link me to a 1 year post referendum forecast that happened.
Original post by paul514
What? We will be making our own laws you’re going on about random crap.

People who care about sovereignty as their reason for brexit only care about law making.


The same people couldn't even name which EU laws they are against.
Who cares about a functional economy and international relevance when you can have RED WHITE AND BLUETM sovereignty (and get rid of those scary foreigners and irritating experts amirite?)
(edited 6 years ago)
Original post by paul514
What? We will be making our own laws you’re going on about random crap.


We can make laws until we are blue in the face. But if you are company making products or services to sell elsewhere in the world, it is their laws and not ours that count. Which is why being somewhere like Europe is a good thing - you only have to deal with one set of laws to deal with, one lot of paperwork and one rate of VAT. Once we are out of the EU, the amount of bureaucracy and red tape will only go up for companies because they will have to deal with UK law and EU law. And then on top of that there will be the customs nightmare and the fact that hiring non-UK people will become a royal ball-ache. All for this fictional entity called sovereignty.
Original post by ByEeek
We can make laws until we are blue in the face. But if you are company making products or services to sell elsewhere in the world, it is their laws and not ours that count. Which is why being somewhere like Europe is a good thing - you only have to deal with one set of laws to deal with, one lot of paperwork and one rate of VAT. Once we are out of the EU, the amount of bureaucracy and red tape will only go up for companies because they will have to deal with UK law and EU law. And then on top of that there will be the customs nightmare and the fact that hiring non-UK people will become a royal ball-ache. All for this fictional entity called sovereignty.


In theory this is the case, but in reality it isn't. I used to work for a major manufacturer, and there were more product variations for sale within the EU than for the rest of the world put together, simply because different countries within the EU had added their own regulations on top of the EU ones. It's also worth noting that the EU comes up with some really poorly thought out regulations, and will continue to do so not because the regulations are necessary but because there are people employed to write them.
Original post by itsfantanoo
You make it sound as if your random silly guesses hold equal weighting to actual economic studies. It's always non academics like you who think so simple-mindedly.


It is a random guess, firstly the things they are measuring (from the little mentioned in the article) can’t be measured as you don’t know the policies, investment or numbers for those areas.

Secondly I don’t need to disprove it, economists are well known for crap forecasting over a year and ludicrously way off on long range forecasting. You’re argument is one of assertion of authority based on job title, mine is track record and the unpredictability of the future.

As an example , how many recessions are built into the numbers? We have one on average every 7 years, we’re due one now and we would be due another before that time frame is up.

Also what numbers have they used and how have they used those numbers to extrapolate these figures?
Original post by CurlyBen
In theory this is the case, but in reality it isn't. I used to work for a major manufacturer, and there were more product variations for sale within the EU than for the rest of the world put together, simply because different countries within the EU had added their own regulations on top of the EU ones. It's also worth noting that the EU comes up with some really poorly thought out regulations, and will continue to do so not because the regulations are necessary but because there are people employed to write them.


Indeed the eu regulations are a minimum not a set in stone for all countries, just like VAT, there is a minimum but not a maximum or we would pay less VAT here.

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