if there was another general election who would win? Watch

Hans_301
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if a vote was called and the election date was set in just a month who would be more likely to win ?

May.
Corbyn.

anyone else ?
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SuperHuman98
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Probably a Conservative minority gov
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ChaoticButterfly
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(Original post by SuperHuman98)
Probably a Conservative minority gov
It's going to be conservative minorities until the end of time.
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SCIENCE :D
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Labour almost definitely.

It's funny watching the tories demise, May looks like an anxious witch at every conference and public appearance.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by Hans_301)
if a vote was called and the election date was set in just a month who would be more likely to win ?

May.
Corbyn.

anyone else ?
If an election were forced on December 1st then i'd say that Labour would happier to just go with their last manifesto than the Tories so as the better prepared party i can see them closing the gap albeit possibly not enough to win since the Tories would still not run the campaign they did last time. I could imagine something like 290-270 to the Tories, something which would ensure neither party had the numbers to do anything.

If an election were called on December 1st willingly then it's reasonable to assume that the Tories would have attempted to form a broader and more economy focused policy offer in advance and hence enter the election more prepared and confident in their own offer. If this planning had occured in advance then i can see the Tories getting a larger winning margin than in June (2.4%) albeit perhaps not back to Cameron's 6%+. Given that the parties are over 40% of the vote though, that's probably enough to regain a slim majority. Something like 44-40 and 340-230.

In either case i don't see a massive shift because it would appear that the vast majority have decided they either want or don't want the Tories/Corbyn in power and there has been no event to really cause a sudden shift. I think that Labour are probably more likely than not to gain or slightly increase vote share but probably not by more than a percent or two while the Tories have the luxury of having had a bad campaign last time so more potential upside albeit they risk being caught unprepared.

The thing i see in either scenario is that the Lib Dem's are going to lose vote share and seats. Two party politics has returned.

(Original post by ChaoticButterfly)
It's going to be conservative minorities until the end of time.
One can imagine Labour kind of gaining 10 seats net per election until they are both like 40 seats from a majority and completely screwed.. then a second election returns the same result.
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username3548838
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Conservatives would win a majority, 100%
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rainerrg
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(Original post by SCIENCE :D)
Labour almost definitely.

It's funny watching the tories demise, May looks like an anxious witch at every conference and public appearance.
It would definitely not be labour, the Conservative party got way more seats in the Houses of Parliament than the Labour Party even though the labour party gained some
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username3590460
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Giggs
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rainerrg
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Conservatives would win the majority but there would most likely be a coalition between parties e.g. the D.U.P or the Liberal Democrat’s again
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Johnny English
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The Conservatives .


After all ....labour stance on EU negotiation is " any deal at any price " which is akin to a turkey voting for Xmas . !


Spoiler:
Show

One out ...all out ....is the message and when the poorer countries like Greece bankrupt the place ......just stand back and laugh . It won't be long
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username3548838
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(Original post by rainerrg)
It would definitely not be labour, the Conservative party got way more seats in the Houses of Parliament than the Labour Party even though the labour party gained some
And the reason Labour managed to finish ahead in many constituencies was because they were pro-EU areas, where people expected a Conservative majority so thought by voting Labour there would be less backing for a full brexit, but a government with economic credibility guarenteed anyway.

Even with the big push for Labour, they only gained 30 seats net and would need to gain a further 64 net to have a majority.
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username878267
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(Original post by Rakas21)
If an election were forced on December 1st then i'd say that Labour would happier to just go with their last manifesto than the Tories so as the better prepared party i can see them closing the gap albeit possibly not enough to win since the Tories would still not run the campaign they did last time. I could imagine something like 290-270 to the Tories, something which would ensure neither party had the numbers to do anything.

If an election were called on December 1st willingly then it's reasonable to assume that the Tories would have attempted to form a broader and more economy focused policy offer in advance and hence enter the election more prepared and confident in their own offer. If this planning had occured in advance then i can see the Tories getting a larger winning margin than in June (2.4%) albeit perhaps not back to Cameron's 6%+. Given that the parties are over 40% of the vote though, that's probably enough to regain a slim majority. Something like 44-40 and 340-230.

In either case i don't see a massive shift because it would appear that the vast majority have decided they either want or don't want the Tories/Corbyn in power and there has been no event to really cause a sudden shift. I think that Labour are probably more likely than not to gain or slightly increase vote share but probably not by more than a percent or two while the Tories have the luxury of having had a bad campaign last time so more potential upside albeit they risk being caught unprepared.

The thing i see in either scenario is that the Lib Dem's are going to lose vote share and seats. Two party politics has returned.



One can imagine Labour kind of gaining 10 seats net per election until they are both like 40 seats from a majority and completely screwed.. then a second election returns the same result.
A 1% swing to Labour gives them 30 more seats. A 2% swing pretty much gives them a majority. That's less of a swing than Labour got last time.

Then we consider there's a fair bit else in Labour's favour;

(1) There is no UKIP vote for the Tories to eat into. At the 2015 election, there were tens of Labour held seats in which the combined UKIP + Tory vote was higher than the Labour vote. There are hardly any now.

(2) The longer the Tories remain in power, with the economy plodding along and wages stagnating, the harder it is for the Tories to claim economic credibility.

(3) Personal attacks on Corbyn really are starting to wear thin. Despite all the IRA stuff and Nato accusations,he still managed 40% of the vote and there's no reason to believe such smears will be any more effective next time.

(4) The print media is losing its power and influence in favour of social media, on which Labour has a much stronger and better targeted game.

(5) Ground troops - Labour has hundreds of thousands of members, the Tories membership is dwindling. That matters a lot when it comes to getting the vote out.
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ChaoticButterfly
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(Original post by Rakas21)


In either case i don't see a massive shift because it would appear that the vast majority have decided they either want or don't want the Tories/Corbyn in power and there has been no event to really cause a sudden shift. I think that Labour are probably more likely than not to gain or slightly increase vote share but probably not by more than a percent or two while the Tories have the luxury of having had a bad campaign last time so more potential upside albeit they risk being caught unprepared.




Yeah but the deing older people being replaced by younger people means Labour will eventually have more voters. Before you say older people become Tories, this is no longer the case. Labour won with everyone of working age more or less. There isn't any economic reason to turn labour voters into tory voters anymore as they get older.
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username3548838
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(Original post by Bornblue)
There is no UKIP vote for the Tories to eat into. At the 2015 election, there were tens of Labour held seats in which the combined UKIP + Tory vote was higher than the Labour vote. There are hardly any now.
The collapse of UKIP helped Labour not the Conservatives. People who voted UKIP where they normally would Labour in 2015/10 lowered the vote share required for the Conservatives to win that seat. Now that has already happened Labour will not find it so easy to pick up seats.

(Original post by Bornblue)
The longer the Tories remain in power, with the economy plodding along and wages stagnating, the harder it is for the Tories to claim economic credibility.
That's lies. Wages are finally starting to rise after a decade of declining, and economic growth is up.

(Original post by Bornblue)
Ground troops - Labour has hundreds of thousands of members, the Tories membership is dwindling. That matters a lot when it comes to getting the vote out.
Yes, having an engaged mass membership helps a lot. But there's a big nasty side among them and some voters prefer economic logic over bribes that can't be achieved.
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username878267
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(Original post by Hatter_2)
The collapse of UKIP helped Labour not the Conservatives. People who voted UKIP where they normally would Labour in 2015/10 lowered the vote share required for the Conservatives to win that seat. Now that has already happened Labour will not find it so easy to pick up seats.

Tories gained 50% of the 2015 UKIP vote and Labour 18%. There is no UKIP vote left for the Tories and that means they will have to win votes from Labour, Lib Dems and the minor parties.

That's lies. Wages are finally starting to rise after a decade of declining, and economic growth is up.
Wages are rising slower than inflation and have been for several years.

Our economy is one of the slowest growing out of Europe's largest economies.

Yes, having an engaged mass membership helps a lot. But there's a big nasty side among them and some voters prefer economic logic over bribes that can't be achieved.
Well it's a good thing the Tories have no economic logic.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by ChaoticButterfly)
Yeah but the deing older people being replaced by younger people means Labour will eventually have more voters. Before you say older people become Tories, this is no longer the case. Labour won with everyone of working age more or less. There isn't any economic reason to turn labour voters into tory voters anymore as they get older.
Even if we accept your premise that problem won't influence elections for a fair while yet. The UK population ages at about 0.4 years per year which in the context of elections not being static is right now, just a mathematical error. Past 2040 and it would start to present a more significant problem.
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username3548838
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...
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M4cc4n4
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the person who lies the most will win.
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emilyyytaylorr
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Corbyn I very much hope, It's said to be that the main reason he didn't get in was because younger people didn't vote although younger people generally prefer him but we don't vote as we're never taught politics unless you take it at A level
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UniiqueTwiisT
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Yeah I think conservatives would win, people moan at how bad she's been handling Brexit and yeah she has handled it awfully but then again, who would be able to handle it any better? ITS BREXIT
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