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How reliable are predicted grades really?

Since most A-level courses have went linear do universities focus more on predicted grades or GCSE grades? I just feel like predicted grades aren't as reliable as an AS grade would be where you actually sit a proper exam. Because predicted grades, in my experience, are a little bit 'optimistic' sometimes lol. Not complaining about that, but do universities see that?
Original post by meandegreen
Since most A-level courses have went linear do universities focus more on predicted grades or GCSE grades? I just feel like predicted grades aren't as reliable as an AS grade would be where you actually sit a proper exam. Because predicted grades, in my experience, are a little bit 'optimistic' sometimes lol. Not complaining about that, but do universities see that?


"The achieved A level grades are on average lower than those indicated by the predicted grades, typically by one or two grades in total across their best three"

So yeah, not that reliable. The system's unlikely to change, perhaps more focus will be given to GCSEs.

However it's in a school's best interest to give a realistic prediction. If a given school gives highly optimistic predictions, unis will pick up on that and they will be "blacklisted" and future applicants from the school will be disadvantaged as the uni will not trust the prediction.

The linear system is complete nonsense tbh. They did it just to so the people in charge have something to get on with for the sake of it.
Original post by meandegreen
Since most A-level courses have went linear do universities focus more on predicted grades or GCSE grades? I just feel like predicted grades aren't as reliable as an AS grade would be where you actually sit a proper exam. Because predicted grades, in my experience, are a little bit 'optimistic' sometimes lol. Not complaining about that, but do universities see that?


Universities are aware that predicted grades can be optimistic but they generally give everyone a standard offer anyway and than as long as you meet that then you can get in regardless of your predictions. With the exceptions of unconditional / contextual offers etc.

They may decide to put more weight on GCSE’s in the future with the loss of AS Levels you’re probably correct with that one.
(edited 6 years ago)

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