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Would a more centrist Labour be polling higher now?

Hear me out!

Since the 2017 election, the two parties have been pretty much level pegging in the polls. The majority showing Labour with a small lead, but some recently showing the Tories either level or with a small lead themselves. Labour haven't pulled clear, which they may have been expecting to.

I've seen a lot of commentators in the press such as Osborne and even centre-left folk claiming that if Labour had a more centre-left leader, that they would be way out ahead. Then again, I don't know if a more centrist leader would be as popular with younger voters.

We seem to be in a similar position to 2005, an unpopular government with an equally unpopular opposition.

Thoughts?

(edited 6 years ago)

Reply 1

the bear

20

if Labour had a professional leader who was genuinely focused on the needs of our country instead of his wretched outdated Bolshevik fantasies then even i would be tempted to vote for them.

Reply 2

Bored123456789

16

Original post by the bear

if Labour had a professional leader who was genuinely focused on the needs of our country instead of his wretched outdated Bolshevik fantasies then even i would be tempted to vote for them.

Yes Bear!!!

Anything would be better than the current Marxists leading the Labour party.

(edited 6 years ago)

Reply 3

username3672344

OP

14

Original post by the bear

if Labour had a professional leader who was genuinely focused on the needs of our country instead of his wretched outdated Bolshevik fantasies then even i would be tempted to vote for them.

Like who?

What do you mean by 'needs of the country', more specifically?

Reply 4

Arran90

20

Original post by DeBruyne18

We seem to be in a similar position to 2005, an unpopular government with an equally unpopular opposition.

The difference is that in 2005 we had opposition from small parties.

The biggest problem with Labour is not its position on a (vague) left-right spectrum but the fact it is split down the middle over the EU and between a Metropolitan elite from London and the trendy cities and the common folk / blue collar Englishmen from the provincial towns.

Reply 5

Snufkin

Universities Forum Helper

21

Labour should certainly be doing better in the polls. The Tories are shambolic, there's no excuses for not doing better.

Labour cannot win a GE without convincing some Tory voters to switch, and so far Corbyn and McDonnell have done nothing to try and convince them. They need to stop playing to their base and reach out... sadly, I don't think Jezza is capable of doing that tbh.

Reply 6

Arran90

20

Original post by Snufkin

Labour cannot win a GE without convincing some Tory voters to switch, and so far Corbyn and McDonnell have done nothing to try and convince them. They need to stop playing to their base and reach out... sadly, I don't think Jezza is capable of doing that tbh.

What matters is where the voters are. Labour has won Warwick & Leamington and Canterbury - that were Conservative even in the 1997 landslide - but at the same time lost formerly safe seats of Stoke South and Walsall North. Their performance in Scotland in 2017 was lacklustre whilst the Conservatives surprised everybody with how many seats they won.

I actually think that older white English blue collar folk, who traditionally identified with Labour, shunning Labour is more responsible for Labour failing to win the 2017 election than anything else.

Reply 7

Plagioclase

21

Labour needs to stop screwing its Remain voters about. There is much to like about Corbyn's Labour but it is impossible to take them seriously when they appear just as intent on economically crippling the country as the Tories currently are.

Reply 8

CountBrandenburg

16

Labour could in theory be polling higher without much of a change in their views at the moment given May’s handling of policies and Brexit... but that would require Corbyn to actually unite the party under a hard Brexit stance, which let’s face it isn’t happening. Moving towards a more central ground wouldn’t exactly help as 1) the public has come to hate the Blairites of a decade ago and 2) a centre left labour wouldn’t necessarily be one that’s united

Reply 9

username3672344

OP

14

Original post by Snufkin

Labour should certainly be doing better in the polls. The Tories are shambolic, there's no excuses for not doing better.

Labour cannot win a GE without convincing some Tory voters to switch, and so far Corbyn and McDonnell have done nothing to try and convince them. They need to stop playing to their base and reach out... sadly, I don't think Jezza is capable of doing that tbh.

I'm inclined to agree but I think Brexit is a circle that can't be squared.

Most Tory voters seem to happy with Brexit, even those who voted remain. On the other hand about 2/3 of Labour voters seem to be passionately against Brexit and 1/3 are passionately for it.

The Tories have been able to position themselves as the party of Brexit without losing too many voters, but Labour's base just seems a lot more divided making it difficult for there to be anything like a unanimous position.

Reply 10

Snufkin

Universities Forum Helper

21

Original post by Arran90

What matters is where the voters are. Labour has won Warwick & Leamington and Canterbury - that were Conservative even in the 1997 landslide - but at the same time lost formerly safe seats of Stoke South and Walsall North. Their performance in Scotland in 2017 was lacklustre whilst the Conservatives surprised everybody with how many seats they won.

I actually think that older white English blue collar folk, who traditionally identified with Labour, shunning Labour is more responsible for Labour failing to win the 2017 election than anything else.

The student vote does not win elections (and it's worth noting that Labour only narrowly won those two seats, they could easily be lost in the next election). Labour lost because 1. it failed to convince Tory voters that they wouldn't crash the economy and 2. because Corbyn is (and remains) ambiguous on Brexit.

Original post by Plagioclase

Labour needs to stop screwing its Remain voters about. There is much to like about Corbyn's Labour but it is impossible to take them seriously when they appear just as intent on economically crippling the country as the Tories currently are.

Absolutely.

Reply 11

Gwilym101

17

Possibly, but if the last few elections and referendums have demonstrated anything it is that polls are not infallible. No one thought Labour would do as well as it did in the GE, everyone thought they were going to be eviscerated. Plus it isn't exactly unbiased when a centrists say a politician would be more popular if they were centrist.

Plus none of the polls matter at the moment due to Brexit which is going to drastically alter our economy, so basically it is the polls post-brexit that will matter. Hence why Labour is largely saying nothing about Brexit because they know they're not going to be in power for any of it, all their big policy stuff is about dealing with the fallout without saying it, social housing, NHS funding, education, all things that are going to be severely affected by Brexit (and lets not forget that we don't know how severely because the Tories have been lying to the public about carrying out assessments for months).

By comparison, the Tories are in a bind as well (of their own making). The now have to enact a thankless and difficult task and the political fallout is going to fall on them. What they'll likely want to do is put it all on May and then ditch her the second Brexit is done and get a new leader, the problem is with the current tory front bencher that's a bit like asking which lunatic should run the asylum.

Reply 12

Arran90

20

What about Scotland? Would a centrist Labour party have done better or worse in Scotland in 2017?

Reply 13

Davij038

13

Too many variables- but I doubt it.

I think brexit is now going to do to the Labour Party what the EU has traditionally done to the Tories.

Also had labour elected a less ‘controversial’ leader I doubt the Tories would have taken the risks they did during the election had it been called at all.

Labour are in a no win situation at the moment as they are trying to appeal to very different groups of people.

Reply 14

username3672344

OP

14

Original post by Davij038

Too many variables- but I doubt it.

Also had labour elected a less ‘controversial’ leader I doubt the Tories would have taken the risks they did during the election had it been called at all.

That's a good point. Before the 2017 Election, if Labour had someone like Starmer in charge, they probably would have been doing similar to how Miliband was. Either level pegging or a few points either way and May wouldn't have risked an election.

How do you think Labour can win if Corbyn stays?

Reply 15

Davij038

13

Original post by DeBruyne18

That's a good point. Before the 2017 Election, if Labour had someone like Starmer in charge, they probably would have been doing similar to how Miliband was. Either level pegging or a few points either way and May wouldn't have risked an election.

How do you think Labour can win if Corbyn stays?

Well the next election will be 2022 which is ages away so who knows what will happen. The Tories will have a new leader and a new manifesto. If both of these are as dreadful as the last (on terms of electoral success) then possibly Corbyn may have a shot- although he’ll be pretty old- a younger corbynite may prove better at taking over the reigns.

I don’t think labour can win unless brexit is as bad as the experts predict it to be or there is a major disaster and the Tories elect somebody useless / uninspiring though.

Reply 16

ChaoticButterfly

20

Original post by Plagioclase

Labour needs to stop screwing its Remain voters about. There is much to like about Corbyn's Labour but it is impossible to take them seriously when they appear just as intent on economically crippling the country as the Tories currently are.

It also has to rely on Leave voters. The Labour party position on Brexit is slightly more remain than whatever the Tory position is.

You can vote for the lib dems if you want I guess. Good luck with that.

Reply 17

Plagioclase

21

Original post by ChaoticButterfly

It also has to rely on Leave voters. The Labour party position on Brexit is slightly more remain than whatever the Tory position is.

You can vote for the lib dems if you want I guess. Good luck with that.

I'm sorry that I'm not happy with having a choice between disaster, and an ever-so-slightly smaller disaster. Labour knows fully what a terrible decision Brexit is (even if the leader unfortunately doesn't appear to think so), yet they continue to pander to the misinformed and the bigoted rather than actually standing up for what's good for the country. It's impossible for me, as a scientist and a young person, to vote for them. So yes, I have - and will continue - to vote Lib Dem until Labour stops being complete cowards.

Reply 18

username2324315

17

Original post by Plagioclase

I'm sorry that I'm not happy with having a choice between disaster, and an ever-so-slightly smaller disaster. Labour knows fully what a terrible decision Brexit is (even if the leader unfortunately doesn't appear to think so), yet they continue to pander to the misinformed and the bigoted rather than actually standing up for what's good for the country. It's impossible for me, as a scientist and a young person, to vote for them. So yes, I have - and will continue - to vote Lib Dem until Labour stops being complete cowards.

Because, unfortunately, the "misinformed" and the "bigoted" make up an incredibly large percentage of Labour voters. Tell me what an incredibly low polling Labour party and an incredibly low polling Lib Dem party would do to stop Brexit?

Also, don't refer to Labour as "cowards" and then vote Lib Dem lolol

Reply 19

username1799249

19

Mid-term polls are pretty meaningless and don't really say anything. If Labour and the Tories are on level pegging I would hypothesise that those who are polled are pretty apathetic and resigned to the fate of Brexit that faces them.

Would a more centrist Labour be polling higher now?

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