How to make your firm and insurance picks, on UCAS?

ey guys, I have 4 conditional offers and 1 unconditional offer. The unconditional one is for an okay-ish university (but the course is VERY good for me). One of the conditional offers is from a brilliant uni (but it needs grades that I'm not sure I'll meet-I may but I take very hard subjects) and the other 3 conditional offers all require decent grades (they aren't easy grades to get but they're easier to get than the other conditional offer's grades). If you were in this position, what would you do?

Pick your favourite as your firm. IGNORE the grades/conditions. Pick the course where you will be able to fulfil your potential and be happiest.

For my insurance, should I go with the unconditional offer? The firm-insurance system is so risky

Hardly anyone ends up at their insurance (because most universities will accept lower grades in August than applicants expect)...only around 8% of applicants end up with their insurance. Many many more applicants find a place via clearing than that (and the majority end up at their firm choice)

Your insurance choice should be somewhere you would be happy to go to....if you would be happy with the uni making the unconditional offer then great....but the fact they're making unconditionals means that they're short of applicants so they'll probably be in Clearing anyway.

If you're finding the decision difficult then write down what you THINK you want to do today and sit on that decision for a month and see if you still feel the same way in April. There's no advantage to making your decisions official on Track before April....it's not a race - UCAS make sure you have months to decide because it's a decision you need to be confident about.

Well I know they gave me an unconditional offer because I already meet their entry requirements, so I can't for sure say they'll have clearing. Also my firm is an LLB at Warwick? Do you think they still may take me at less than an AAA (of course I'm not asking for a guarantee-- I understand how absurd this may sound haha)?

It's a slim chance but it isn't a no chance. AAA was the most common grades for entrants in previous years but noone can predict how many firm acceptances they'll have that meet those conditions this year. You could ring them up and ask them what happens in August if you miss AAA and what sort of things they consider when deciding which missed applicants to accept if they have the space available. They'll either be able to reassure you or make it clear that they aren't likely to give any leeway to missed grades....in which case it's worth looking at which of your other universities have a guarantee of hall places for insurance entrants (and working your arse off to meet the AAA).

They took 3% of entrants with lower grades in the past https://unistats.ac.uk/subjects/entry/10007163FT-U-M300/ReturnTo/Search (that's 2 out of 65 entrants - so not a lot but not an automatic rejection either).