No deal: Disaster or opportunity?

Original post by studette

Tariffs would only be raised if the government chooses to raise them. The EU would no longer have any say in it.

True. But if we offer tariff free trade, under WTO rules, we have to have tariff free trade from everywhere which means we see our markets flooded with cheap imports from places like China, India and Africa. "Great" I hear you say. Well not really. Such imports would undermine our own industry causing job losses whilst tariffs set by other countries would still make our own exports expensive or uncompetitive against local markets.

You can guarantee that whatever did happen, nothing would likely go in our favour given the excellent deals we currently enjoy. And there is the rub - we have it so so good right now. Those talking about Brexit as being better are either ignorant or just plain lying. Reece Mogg for example. He will be fine sat on his family wealth and recently offshored business.

Reply 3

hello_shawn

If Brexit was the Brit's response to being shafted in their own country... https://www.afr.com/lifestyle/arts-and-entertainment/books/theodore-dalrymple-explains-how-britain-went-down-the-drain-20160412-go46es
(This was before Brexit. Brits need to have a long hard look at themselves. But to be honest, a country not propped up by foreigners in order to pretend they're still "rich" would be a breath of fresh air!)

Reply 4

username3883544

18

Brexit in any form is an act of economic self-harm. The UK is worse off regardless, but the worst is no-deal.

Reply 5

The UK didn't join the Common Market until 1972. The country has existed for many centuries before without being in this club. It can do so successfully again. If the economy is terrible for a few years, even for a decade, it WILL turn around and improve at some point. The notion we are screwed without being a member of the EU is ridiculous, considering as a nation we coped perfectly fine before its existence. As did every other EU country.

Reply 6

Original post by markova21

The UK didn't join the Common Market until 1972. The country has existed for many centuries before without being in this club. It can do so successfully again. If the economy is terrible for a few years, even for a decade, it WILL turn around and improve at some point. The notion we are screwed without being a member of the EU is ridiculous, considering as a nation we coped perfectly fine before its existence. As did every other EU country.

There are two issues here.

The first is that you cannot turn back the clock. The British economy, which was in a very bad way in the early 1970s, has changed enormously in the last 45 years. Leaving the EU will not recreate some past golden age (and indeed when such a golden age was is debatable; 1914 (peak coal and cotton production); 1930s (yes if you are making cars in Cowley or Shredded Wheat in Welwyn Garden City but not if you are on the dole in Jarrow), 1950s high employment but already managing industrial decline).

The second is that the calls for a radical Brexit come from the financially secure. Ten years of economic problems will blight millions of families. What right has anyone to voluntarily inflict that on others. Such economic pain, indeed any economic pain, was not in the Brexiteers' referendum offer. No-one voted for becoming poorer.

Reply 7

The economic pain you talk about has always been with us. It comes and goes. How many Recessions have there been since 1972? Being in the EU hasn't protected us from this.

Reply 8

Look, if in a few year's time it turns out to have been a disaster, then there is always the option of us re-joining the EU. We're not going to be shot for leaving. But let's at least try and make a go of it. We might just inspire other EU countries to follow suit. I think it could be incredibly liberating, but if we are too afraid to step out on our own for fear of the unknown we will never know.

Reply 9

Original post by markova21

The economic pain you talk about has always been with us. It comes and goes. How many Recessions have there been since 1972? Being in the EU hasn't protected us from this.

That is different from gratuitously inflicted economic damage by those immune from it.

Reply 10

Duncan2012

It's not in Europe's interest to have tariffs on trade. Apart from some short-term disruption a no-deal Brexit won't be the economic disaster that some people seem to think. See the stats here https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/

Reply 11

Do you think in 50, 100 year's time, the next generation will know about or care about a few years of hardship the country went through back in the early 2000's? You have to think long-term and look at the bigger picture.

Reply 12

Original post by markova21

Do you think in 50, 100 year's time, the next generation will know about or care about a few years of hardship the country went through back in the early 2000's? You have to think long-term and look at the bigger picture.

The repeal of the Corn Laws shaped British economic policy from the 1840s to the 1930s. The Great Depression then did so from the 1930s to the 1980s.

The wanton ruination of millions of people would see the end of centre-right policies for at least a generation.

Reply 13

Original post by Duncan2012

It's not in Europe's interest to have tariffs on trade.

Odd then that the EU maintains a Common Customs Tariff

Reply 14

Yes, but that's IF leaving results in the wanton ruination of millions. We can't know for certain that will happen. As I said if it fails, we have the option of re-joining in the future. But we should at least give leaving our best shot. I really, genuinely believe that.

Reply 15

Duncan2012

Original post by nulli tertius

Odd then that the EU maintains a Common Customs Tariff

...which is done to create the internal market and doesn't apply to goods moving between EU countries. Perhaps I should edit my post to say it's not in Europe's interest to have tariffs on EU-UK trade.

Reply 16

Maker

20

Original post by Duncan2012

...which is done to create the internal market and doesn't apply to goods moving between EU countries. Perhaps I should edit my post to say it's not in Europe's interest to have tariffs on EU-UK trade.

Europe would want tariffs on things from the UK it also produces like meat and cars.

Reply 17

Duncan2012

Original post by Maker

Europe would want tariffs on things from the UK it also produces like meat and cars.

Far too simplistic, I'm afraid. And wrong, too.

Reply 18

ColinDent

14

I think a no deal brexit is the last thing that the EU wish to happen, there is growing anti EU feeling " populism" for those who wish to trivialise it.
A no deal brexit will cause many job losses in already struggling nations, this will lead to further resentment towards the EU and they really can't afford for that to happen, yes Germany and France will probably do slightly better than us to start with but eventually they will have to cover all the other countries issues, a no deal would be catastrophic for the EU but it might sharpen their minds.

Reply 19

username1799249