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Will Theresa May win today's vote of No Confidence?

This poll is closed

Will Theresa May win the vote of no confidence?

Yes! 55%
Yes - but she'll resign anyway 6%
No!39%
Total votes: 67
It will take a total of 158 Conservative MPs to vote against her - do you think they will? They start voting in a secret ballot at 6pm with the decision expected shortly after 9pm

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46535739

And if she does win narrowly will she step down anyway?
(edited 5 years ago)

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The consensus is that she will but there is also a consensus that the Tory Party and her leadership is in a slight pickle.
Reply 2
Avatar for Doones
Doones
OP
21
Original post by JMR2018
The consensus is that she will but there is also a consensus that the Tory Party and her leadership is in a slight pickle.


Agreed - but it might put the ERG in their place.
Reply 3
Avatar for Lewito
Lewito
19
I can't forsee her losing it, but it is a possibility. If she does win however, I do see it being by a not so big margin.
I think she'll manage to hold on. You have to wonder what the ERG are attempting here...this will only bolster May's position and harm the infleunce Hard Brexiters have.
There is an assumption that MPs sincerely like or support Mrs May. This could be a con to make her think she is safe then they go in for the kill. Same happened to Merkel in her party.

Who knows, she may lose tonight.
Reply 6
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xDron3
19
Hopefully she'll lose, the lack of leadership and certainty in the entirety of the government is worrying
Reply 7
Avatar for Doones
Doones
OP
21
Original post by MrDystopia
I think she'll manage to hold on. You have to wonder what the ERG are attempting here...this will only bolster May's position and harm the infleunce Hard Brexiters have.


Exactly - it locks her in position for at least 12 months.

The bigger question is why hasn't Corbyn called a VoNC in the Commons instead...
Original post by Doonesbury
The bigger question is why hasn't Corbyn called a VoNC in the Commons instead...

The same reason Sturgeon hasn't pushed for indyref2, they don't believe they'd win and would prefer to be able to keep shouting loudly.
Reply 9
Avatar for JT_888
JT_888
20
174 Tory MPs have said publicly stated that they'll support the Prime Minister in VoNC but some of them could just be bluffing. I think the Prime Minister will survive the VoNC triggered but by a small/tight majority as it has taken this long for Graham Brady to confirm whether he had received letters from 15% of Tory MPs to call for a VoNC in the Prime Minister's leadership. Also if she does win, I don't expect her to announce her resignation but she will seriously have to reconsider her position as Prime Minister and Leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party.
Original post by Doonesbury
Exactly - it locks her in position for at least 12 months.

The bigger question is why hasn't Corbyn called a VoNC in the Commons instead...


Original post by Duncan2012
The same reason Sturgeon hasn't pushed for indyref2, they don't believe they'd win and would prefer to be able to keep shouting loudly.


As above, there's uncertainty as to whether a Corbyn led VONC would have the numbers to actually go through.

Which begs the question, is that what this Tory VONC is attempting to do? Covertly strengthen May's position :beard:
Reply 11
Avatar for Doones
Doones
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Original post by CoffeeAndPolitics
174 Tory MPs have said publicly stated that they'll support the Prime Minister in VoNC but some of them could just be bluffing. I think the Prime Minister will survive the VoNC triggered but by a small/tight majority as it has taken this long for Graham Brady to confirm whether he had received letters from 15% of Tory MPs to call for a VoNC in the Prime Minister's leadership. Also if she does win, I don't expect her to announce her resignation but she will seriously have to reconsider her position as Prime Minister and Leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party.


I expect to her to stay on even if she only wins by 1.
Reply 12
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JT_888
20
Original post by Doonesbury
I expect to her to stay on even if she only wins by 1.


Same.
I’ll be very surprised if she doesn’t. Brexit and trump were a direct result of the general public which in all honesty aren’t the brightest and are incapable of seeing the bigger picture. But this vote is among our elected representatives who are supposedly the brightest ones we could find for the job. Surely they can see that a change of prime minister isn’t going to help matters, especially as nobody else really seems willing to step into her shoes/little kitten heels.
Original post by Eva.Gregoria
I’ll be very surprised if she doesn’t. Brexit and trump were a direct result of the general public which in all honesty aren’t the brightest and are incapable of seeing the bigger picture. But this vote is among our elected representatives who are supposedly the brightest ones we could find for the job. Surely they can see that a change of prime minister isn’t going to help matters, especially as nobody else really seems willing to step into her shoes/little kitten heels.


Boris Johnson?? Jacob Rees Mogg???
Reply 15
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Doones
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Original post by Wired_1800
Boris Johnson?? Jacob Rees Mogg???


There is absolutely no way JRM will ever become leader.
Theresa May would hold on, considering the delicate political climate with EU negotiations, it would be hurtful to the entire nation if a cabinet reshuffle and a newly elected leader occurs; also all the potential candidates are parasites.
Original post by Wired_1800
Boris Johnson?? Jacob Rees Mogg???


Jacob Rees Mogg has never wanted to lead the party, and if Boris is elected, this will certainly guarantee Labour a win in the next election. They are prime examples of people who complain about what should NOT be done but never come up with alternatives or what SHOULD be done.
Original post by Wired_1800
Boris Johnson?? Jacob Rees Mogg???

Jacob Ree Mogg has explicitly stated on multiple occurences that he didn't want to become PM. So no.

Boris could well become the next PM, but considering how incompetant as the Foreign Seceratary I don't think he will do well as a PM.
Original post by Doonesbury
Exactly - it locks her in position for at least 12 months.

The bigger question is why hasn't Corbyn called a VoNC in the Commons instead...


Because it’s premature to have a VoNC in the Commons at this point.
The time for one is when the deal is most probably voted down.
At this point a VoNC would be opposed by the DUP.

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