Brexit Opinions/predictions?
Scroll to see replies
Original post by DJKL
It may do, but the absolute living standards of those at the bottom also increase so overall standards of living increase, but the rate of growth is now sluggish and will remain sluggish.
There is no free lunch here, the world got really small very quickly and our comparative advantage re access to capital and know how has shrunk, the rest of the world can now stand toe to toe and slug it out economically with the developed West and given cheaper labour win the contest, no amount of wishful thinking re wages rates etc will buck that trend, no alternative systems will change this, this will be the 21st century story.
When the UK can produce T Shirts here and sell them into say India on similar price and quality points to those made in India you will have a totally level playing field, until that time those in lower paid work in the UK will struggle against global markets.
The big secret has always been to not do low paid work, to use education to enable higher value added outputs, but with AI now looming even that path is likely to get more difficult.
The reality is the West had a good run and has binged on world output, we will now pay the price for the next 40-60-80-100 odd years until societies around the world are more equal, until then expect slow increases in living standards at the botom of the ladder and some real nasty suffering in the middle of the ladder as that sector (to be gradually replaced by AI) gets squeezed.
These are nor UK issues they are world issues, Brexit merely tilts at the wrong windmill because it is the nearest windmill, Trump is a reflection of similar re the US, in effect, for the West, Winter is coming.
There is no free lunch here, the world got really small very quickly and our comparative advantage re access to capital and know how has shrunk, the rest of the world can now stand toe to toe and slug it out economically with the developed West and given cheaper labour win the contest, no amount of wishful thinking re wages rates etc will buck that trend, no alternative systems will change this, this will be the 21st century story.
When the UK can produce T Shirts here and sell them into say India on similar price and quality points to those made in India you will have a totally level playing field, until that time those in lower paid work in the UK will struggle against global markets.
The big secret has always been to not do low paid work, to use education to enable higher value added outputs, but with AI now looming even that path is likely to get more difficult.
The reality is the West had a good run and has binged on world output, we will now pay the price for the next 40-60-80-100 odd years until societies around the world are more equal, until then expect slow increases in living standards at the botom of the ladder and some real nasty suffering in the middle of the ladder as that sector (to be gradually replaced by AI) gets squeezed.
These are nor UK issues they are world issues, Brexit merely tilts at the wrong windmill because it is the nearest windmill, Trump is a reflection of similar re the US, in effect, for the West, Winter is coming.
This is rubbish the reason the rest of the world outside of the ‘west’ has been growing so much is globalisation which doesn’t happen without our money, our markets and our companies moving production there.
Original post by paul514
This is rubbish the reason the rest of the world outside of the ‘west’ has been growing so much is globalisation which doesn’t happen without our money, our markets and our companies moving production there.
They are not your companies, they belong to their shareholders who are often spread all around the world. Globalisation is not the property of the West, it will continue irrespective of what the West wants to happen and countries do not own or possess global companies. Ask yourself what size say HSBC is relative to say those banks you see and perceive as more British, it dwarves them.
Consider this table of Market Caps, look how many are from China and the Pacific, so whose money is it, certainly not ours.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/264905/top-10-banks-by-market-capitalization/
They will continue to have sustained growth outside the West whilst there are signifcant wage differentials and there are vast amounts of capital in say China; China is so awash with foreign currency it is one of the reasons they have so many major capital projects in say Africa, it is a way to secure both valuable mineral resources and rid themselves of say dollars.
Consider the factors of production, land, labour, capital and these days know how, they no longer need our money which is my point, the advantage we held re Capital and Know how have evaporated.
Original post by DJKL
They are not your companies, they belong to their shareholders who are often spread all around the world. Globalisation is not the property of the West, it will continue irrespective of what the West wants to happen and countries do not own or possess global companies. Ask yourself what size say HSBC is relative to say those banks you see and perceive as more British, it dwarves them.
Consider this table of Market Caps, look how many are from China and the Pacific, so whose money is it, certainly not ours.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/264905/top-10-banks-by-market-capitalization/
They will continue to have sustained growth outside the West whilst there are signifcant wage differentials and there are vast amounts of capital in say China; China is so awash with foreign currency it is one of the reasons they have so many major capital projects in say Africa, it is a way to secure both valuable mineral resources and rid themselves of say dollars.
Consider the factors of production, land, labour, capital and these days know how, they no longer need our money which is my point, the advantage we held re Capital and Know how have evaporated.
Consider this table of Market Caps, look how many are from China and the Pacific, so whose money is it, certainly not ours.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/264905/top-10-banks-by-market-capitalization/
They will continue to have sustained growth outside the West whilst there are signifcant wage differentials and there are vast amounts of capital in say China; China is so awash with foreign currency it is one of the reasons they have so many major capital projects in say Africa, it is a way to secure both valuable mineral resources and rid themselves of say dollars.
Consider the factors of production, land, labour, capital and these days know how, they no longer need our money which is my point, the advantage we held re Capital and Know how have evaporated.
China’s debt level has sky rocketed and the wages aren’t that far behind western workers now.
But that aside, you fail to understand governments set the rules and of a few key governments or even a group decides to go protectionist or even ban companies trading in some countries it slits the throats of the none western economies pretending globalisation can’t be messed with is bull.
Whether you want to is another matter.
OK guys, I'm a little late to the party here so much to reply to and I've only got half and hour break!
@DJLK the absolute living standards of those at the bottom also increase so overall standards of living increase is what we are being sold for the sole benefit of the wealthiest people in the world.
A free market unregulated economy simply does not work for everyone @djkl when you add global in it as well it really falls apart. This is where the EU should help the west but unfortunately it lost its way and tried to become more than a free market for the Western economy. Living standards of those at the bottom also increase so overall standards of living increase, is the theory simply not true in reality, in reality this is only true if those whom are at the top decide to share their sucess, which is where socialism come into play. If you need proof of this have a look at India, brazil or wait for it England previous to our socialist movement which has transformed what we all have and can achieve, those Council houses where not built by Capitalism, it took regulation and taxation to lift the poor out of sleeping in filthy conditions, when 'santa' and her iron handbag sold off the these public assets they are gone forever and now are going slowly back in the hands of the rich because the system doesn't work for anyone bar the people at the top. See where I'm coming from?
@byeeek
We simply don't manufacture what we used too, you (or they) can quote whatever you like we don't. In money value we are bound too, my olds brought their house for 4 grand 50odd years ago, it's like saying I own 32 and half worth of houses now in comparison to them, I'm so much more successful. It's holds no water. Local to me alone speedo, cussions, John player, boots print, fields, Raleigh, imperial tobacco .... I've not even got off house hold names yet or gone further than 5 miles of my house.
I dont think sitting in an office is any less productive than digging coal, you are putting words in my mouth and/or trying to pigeon hole me. Some of he service industries you list are manufacturers to me, if I manufacture a antivirus or computer game and sell it, that's manufacturing not service. I take what you are saying about overseas insurance mind you good point
@DJLK the absolute living standards of those at the bottom also increase so overall standards of living increase is what we are being sold for the sole benefit of the wealthiest people in the world.
A free market unregulated economy simply does not work for everyone @djkl when you add global in it as well it really falls apart. This is where the EU should help the west but unfortunately it lost its way and tried to become more than a free market for the Western economy. Living standards of those at the bottom also increase so overall standards of living increase, is the theory simply not true in reality, in reality this is only true if those whom are at the top decide to share their sucess, which is where socialism come into play. If you need proof of this have a look at India, brazil or wait for it England previous to our socialist movement which has transformed what we all have and can achieve, those Council houses where not built by Capitalism, it took regulation and taxation to lift the poor out of sleeping in filthy conditions, when 'santa' and her iron handbag sold off the these public assets they are gone forever and now are going slowly back in the hands of the rich because the system doesn't work for anyone bar the people at the top. See where I'm coming from?
@byeeek
We simply don't manufacture what we used too, you (or they) can quote whatever you like we don't. In money value we are bound too, my olds brought their house for 4 grand 50odd years ago, it's like saying I own 32 and half worth of houses now in comparison to them, I'm so much more successful. It's holds no water. Local to me alone speedo, cussions, John player, boots print, fields, Raleigh, imperial tobacco .... I've not even got off house hold names yet or gone further than 5 miles of my house.
I dont think sitting in an office is any less productive than digging coal, you are putting words in my mouth and/or trying to pigeon hole me. Some of he service industries you list are manufacturers to me, if I manufacture a antivirus or computer game and sell it, that's manufacturing not service. I take what you are saying about overseas insurance mind you good point
(edited 5 years ago)
Original post by paul514
Right so companies can’t do on the job training? Apprenticeships, and sponsoring people to do qualifications....?
You should let the companies that do this already know.
I wasn’t arguing about tertiary industry, that was a different poster.
You should let the companies that do this already know.
I wasn’t arguing about tertiary industry, that was a different poster.
Some of the larger companies can and do. Smaller companies find it much more difficult. If you employ 6 or 7 highly skilled people, taking one of those away from earning money for the company to train someone up is very very costly. Not only do you have to pay their salary and tax, but you also have to pay for the trainee and the associated costs to the business employees create. You go from being all up to two down in one fell swoop.
The cynic in me does not have much time for the current apprenticeship programme. The fact that the government is subsidising apprenticeships means that in reality companies are just getting uber cheap labour with no risk or commitment.
Original post by ByEeek
Some of the larger companies can and do. Smaller companies find it much more difficult. If you employ 6 or 7 highly skilled people, taking one of those away from earning money for the company to train someone up is very very costly. Not only do you have to pay their salary and tax, but you also have to pay for the trainee and the associated costs to the business employees create. You go from being all up to two down in one fell swoop.
The cynic in me does not have much time for the current apprenticeship programme. The fact that the government is subsidising apprenticeships means that in reality companies are just getting uber cheap labour with no risk or commitment.
The cynic in me does not have much time for the current apprenticeship programme. The fact that the government is subsidising apprenticeships means that in reality companies are just getting uber cheap labour with no risk or commitment.
Some times we do things for moral reasons rather than financial reasons, however what you have at the moment is overseas investment over what we are investing in our children.
I think we are both agreed that we should spend more on training and also I think we are both agreed that the current government apprenticeship programme is not in the interests of young people but a smoke and mirrors policy to gift money to businesses?
So my question to you is instead of investing in developing poorer European countries to hope they become net contributers to the European Union as a whole, while we submit to heavy reliance on forigen labour because we don't train. Why don't we spend this money on meaningful training?
(edited 5 years ago)
Original post by paul514
China’s debt level has sky rocketed and the wages aren’t that far behind western workers now.
But that aside, you fail to understand governments set the rules and of a few key governments or even a group decides to go protectionist or even ban companies trading in some countries it slits the throats of the none western economies pretending globalisation can’t be messed with is bull.
Whether you want to is another matter.
But that aside, you fail to understand governments set the rules and of a few key governments or even a group decides to go protectionist or even ban companies trading in some countries it slits the throats of the none western economies pretending globalisation can’t be messed with is bull.
Whether you want to is another matter.
So, US is going to tell HSBC to do as it says or no access to Europe and USA, well on volume of activity outside these two areas they would likely go with Pacific rather than with these two countries.
Re China are you perhaps looking at city average wages rather than country average wages, country average circa 74,318 CNY, circa £8,500 p.a.
https://tradingeconomics.com/china/wages
Where has most of the world's growth come from lduring ast decade?
Over ten years ago I attended a breakfact briefing from the chief economist at Clydesdale Bank (they did a good bacon roll) .the summing up was the most encouraging thing he could suggest was to ensure our children learnt Cantonese and Mandarin.
You cannot buck the tend and nor can governments.
Original post by Burton Bridge
So my question to you is instead of investing in developing poorer European countries to hope they become net contributers to the European Union as a whole, while we submit to heavy reliance on forigen labour because we don't train. Why don't we spend this money on meaningful training?
I think that is a loaded question. It is like being in a tennis club and asking why the club are paying money to the tennis federation who line the pockets of their fancy HQ in Mayfair, rather than relaying court number 3. Forgetting of course all the benefits such membership brings to the membership.
The development funds of the EU is not particulaly large as a proportion of the whole budget and some of that money comes back to us in the form of regional development grants. But you are choosing to portray the idea that we spend money on other countries as a bad thing forgetting that that money allows us to trade anywhere in the EU in exactly the same as you might trade with the chap over the road. There is no difference. And on top of that we were part of a club that has a lot of weight on the world stage. One of the reason that the US has continued to kiss our ass and pretend they have a "special" relationship with us is because we are their way into Europe. Now that we have left, the US doesn't have quite as much interest in us as it once did and being out of the EU means that we will no longer be the heavy weight we once were. Just a small damp island on slight to the left of something much more worthy and vauable of courtship.
I am not for a second pretending that the EU is perfect. It isn't. But I feel that on average we get much more out of it than we put in, just as we as tax payers get much better value for money from the state than if we all had to pay for our own education or all had to pay for our own police or had our own private medical insurance. Being in a club is always more advantageous than being on your own.
(edited 5 years ago)
Original post by ByEeek
I think that is a loaded question. It is like being in a tennis club and asking why the club are paying money to the tennis federation who line the pockets of their fancy HQ in Mayfair, rather than relaying court number 3. Forgetting of course all the benefits such membership brings to the membership.
Well avoided but to use your story, it would largely depend on how much the club has to rely on court 3, if they are losing business and having to action costly temporary fixes to it on a regular basis, then would it not make sence to evaluate how much the club benifits from their membership?
Of corse in this hypothetical situation you can make the numbers very favourable either way, the actual debate is very different, so why would we not spend this money on meaningful training?
Original post by ByEeek
The development funds of the EU is not particulaly large as a proportion of the whole budget and some of that money comes back to us in the form of regional development grants. But you are choosing to portray the idea that we spend money on other countries as a bad thing forgetting that that money allows us to trade anywhere in the EU in exactly the same as you might trade with the chap over the road. There is no difference. And on top of that we were part of a club that has a lot of weight on the world stage. One of the reason that the US has continued to kiss our ass and pretend they have a "special" relationship with us is because we are their way into Europe. Now that we have left, the US doesn't have quite as much interest in us as it once did and being out of the EU means that we will no longer be the heavy weight we once were. Just a small damp island on slight to the left of something much more worthy and vauable of courtship.
The development funds of the EU is not particulaly large as a proportion of the whole budget and some of that money comes back to us in the form of regional development grants. But you are choosing to portray the idea that we spend money on other countries as a bad thing forgetting that that money allows us to trade anywhere in the EU in exactly the same as you might trade with the chap over the road. There is no difference. And on top of that we were part of a club that has a lot of weight on the world stage. One of the reason that the US has continued to kiss our ass and pretend they have a "special" relationship with us is because we are their way into Europe. Now that we have left, the US doesn't have quite as much interest in us as it once did and being out of the EU means that we will no longer be the heavy weight we once were. Just a small damp island on slight to the left of something much more worthy and vauable of courtship.
We are not a heavy weight at all from our EU membership, give me some examples of the USA sucking to to us for a access to the European Union or even one example!
The UK currently pays into the EU twice what it gets back in the way of subsidies, etc.
Simple mathematics then says to continue paying the subsidies out of what we are not paying the EU.
Fund our own manufacturing to re-build our manufacturing base (the foundations of any wealthy country) from the remaining half saved - total cost to this country no more than what we are currently paying the EU
Or is that too simplistic?
Original post by paul514
No opinion is needed, the fact is that it is all down to Theresa May, she can stone wall the commons and give no amendments and she can’t be removed.
If she wants to do no deal then she can.
This has all been a game from start to finish with the PM out manoeuvring the opposite benches and remainers in her own party as a tactic to get through the last two years.
This has been completely down to the overwhelming majority of remainers in the commons not representing the views of their constituents or actually respecting what people voted for which was very clear.
If may extends article 50 for three months then we will be back where we are now in 3 months time.
If she wants to do no deal then she can.
This has all been a game from start to finish with the PM out manoeuvring the opposite benches and remainers in her own party as a tactic to get through the last two years.
This has been completely down to the overwhelming majority of remainers in the commons not representing the views of their constituents or actually respecting what people voted for which was very clear.
If may extends article 50 for three months then we will be back where we are now in 3 months time.
I disagree... there will be even more job losses and lack of foreign investment. You just want to get it past the point of no return before the damage becomes even more apparent.
Original post by Vinny C
I disagree... there will be even more job losses and lack of foreign investment. You just want to get it past the point of no return before the damage becomes even more apparent.
Why do you think there will be more job losses, the fact you say more means you believe there has already been some where do you think these habe occurred?
Original post by Burton Bridge
Why do you think there will be more job losses, the fact you say more means you believe there has already been some where do you think these habe occurred?
Nissan, HMV, Debenhams... keep watching this space.
Original post by Vinny C
Nissan, HMV, Debenhams... keep watching this space.
Non of which have anything to do with Brexit
Original post by Burton Bridge
Non of which have anything to do with Brexit
Of course not... Nissan even said it did. As for the other two... they have enough problems without upsetting 52% of their customers so Mr PR man says blame something else.
(edited 5 years ago)
Original post by Burton Bridge
Well avoided but to use your story, it would largely depend on how much the club has to rely on court 3, if they are losing business and having to action costly temporary fixes to it on a regular basis, then would it not make sence to evaluate how much the club benifits from their membership?
Of corse in this hypothetical situation you can make the numbers very favourable either way, the actual debate is very different, so why would we not spend this money on meaningful training?
We are not a heavy weight at all from our EU membership, give me some examples of the USA sucking to to us for a access to the European Union or even one example!
The UK currently pays into the EU twice what it gets back in the way of subsidies, etc.
Simple mathematics then says to continue paying the subsidies out of what we are not paying the EU.
Fund our own manufacturing to re-build our manufacturing base (the foundations of any wealthy country) from the remaining half saved - total cost to this country no more than what we are currently paying the EU
Or is that too simplistic?
Of corse in this hypothetical situation you can make the numbers very favourable either way, the actual debate is very different, so why would we not spend this money on meaningful training?
We are not a heavy weight at all from our EU membership, give me some examples of the USA sucking to to us for a access to the European Union or even one example!
The UK currently pays into the EU twice what it gets back in the way of subsidies, etc.
Simple mathematics then says to continue paying the subsidies out of what we are not paying the EU.
Fund our own manufacturing to re-build our manufacturing base (the foundations of any wealthy country) from the remaining half saved - total cost to this country no more than what we are currently paying the EU
Or is that too simplistic?
Its way yoo simplistic. It costs £200 a year for my son to join a football club and all we get for that money is his kit, a cheap rainproof in club colours and a water bottle with his name on it that has already been broken. We have surely been ripped off no?
Except that cost also covers his training, match fees and FA registration subs. How can I put a monetary value on his enjoyment and personal development?
Sure we pay more in than we get back in pure money, but that isn't how clubs work is it?
Original post by Vinny C
Of course not... Nissan even said it did. As for the other two... they have enough problems without upsetting 52% of their customers so Mr PR man says blame something else.
Sorry can you please confirm nissan said they are taking business away from Sunderland or even any branch because of Brexit?
(edited 5 years ago)
I'm not into politics but why are we leaving the EU anyway??
(edited 5 years ago)
Nice, anything to add apart from your bigoted insulting pictures?
Original post by Burton Bridge
Sorry can you please confirm nissan said they are taking business away from Sunderland or even any branch because of Brexit?
Nissan want to manufacture a new car. Doing so in the UK is risky so they are doing it elsewhere. This effectively puts Sunderland at risk. Not today and possibly not next year but the future isn't bright. It doesn't take an expert to realise that surely.
Original post by ByEeek
Its way yoo simplistic. It costs £200 a year for my son to join a football club and all we get for that money is his kit, a cheap rainproof in club colours and a water bottle with his name on it that has already been broken. We have surely been ripped off no?
Except that cost also covers his training, match fees and FA registration subs. How can I put a monetary value on his enjoyment and personal development?
Sure we pay more in than we get back in pure money, but that isn't how clubs work is it?
Except that cost also covers his training, match fees and FA registration subs. How can I put a monetary value on his enjoyment and personal development?
Sure we pay more in than we get back in pure money, but that isn't how clubs work is it?
Yes and no, the main idea if the EEC was a good one in theory, the political EU is a different beast mind you.
Yes a club is a luxury, that gives a product for a cost, whatever that product is, is valued different to everyone. Now for the No part, However when we are borrowing each day eye watering as that our children will have to repay one day. Largely to benifit other members of the club, Italy are looking next in line for a nail out, also you seemly are pointing out that the EU is so beneficial to us we will sink without it, that's just not true is it?
I do respect you're opinion mate, I'd like to say thanks for the debate personally I have really enjoyed it, I do think we may have to agree to differ at some point mind you
Quick Reply
Related discussions
- Even Europe’s far-right firebrands seem to sense Brexit is a disaster- The Guardian
- Applying to a Spanish university with A-levels from the UK
- Cameron-comeback, opinions?
- Can someone please give me feedback on my A-Level Politics essay?
- EPQ Help -- People who were voting age at Brexit
- Lee Anderson defects to reform
- UCL Politics and IR Applicants
- Should i vote Labour?
- Edexcel A-level Politics Paper 1 (9PL0 01) - 23rd May 2023 [Exam Chat]
- Imperial College or TU Delft?
- A teacher wanted to cane me when I was 14 but I am 28 now
- open day
- should i take a gap year?
- Finally, a study to show what we all knew anyway.
- Tractors converge at Westminster as farmers protest over food security
- A-level predicted grades
- Should i do my epq on the 2008 financial crisis?
- Failed year 12
- Who regrets the outcome of Brexit??
- Ucl chances for bsc economics
Latest
Last reply 1 minute ago
LSE anthropology and law 2024Last reply 2 minutes ago
What games did everybody play on their computers at school or when they were youngerGaming
10
Last reply 4 minutes ago
JK Rowling in ‘arrest me’ challenge over hate crime lawLast reply 9 minutes ago
BAE systems degree apprenticeships September 2024Last reply 15 minutes ago
TSR Study Together - STEM vs Humanities - Tenth SessionLast reply 16 minutes ago
Official University of Leicester 2024 Applicant ThreadLast reply 16 minutes ago
NCA Trainee Investigator/Intelligence 2019Last reply 17 minutes ago
Accommodation for University of Birmingham - medical school applicant :)Last reply 17 minutes ago
Official University of Edinburgh Offer Holders Thread for 2024 entryLast reply 19 minutes ago
Official University of Leicester Offer Holders Thread for 2024 entryLast reply 20 minutes ago
Medical doctor degree apprenticeship 2024Trending
Last reply 1 hour ago
Even Europe’s far-right firebrands seem to sense Brexit is a disaster- The GuardianLast reply 9 hours ago
Why is the political left now censorious and authoritarian??Last reply 2 days ago
Sunak rejects offer of youth mobility scheme between EU and UKLast reply 1 week ago
Rayner denies wrongdoing over council house sale amid police reviewLast reply 1 week ago
TSR Goes Green: How important will the environment be in this year's election?Last reply 2 weeks ago
TSR Big Discussion #1: What should be top priority to protect the environment?Last reply 2 weeks ago
Where do you stand on the political spectrum (8values)? – Take a quiz here!Last reply 3 weeks ago
2024 UK general election speculation and build-up threadLast reply 3 weeks ago
No progress made on half of UK government’s levelling-up targetsLast reply 3 weeks ago
Trump needs a $464m bond in six days. What if he can't get it?Trending
Last reply 1 hour ago
Even Europe’s far-right firebrands seem to sense Brexit is a disaster- The GuardianLast reply 9 hours ago
Why is the political left now censorious and authoritarian??Last reply 2 days ago
Sunak rejects offer of youth mobility scheme between EU and UKLast reply 1 week ago
Rayner denies wrongdoing over council house sale amid police reviewLast reply 1 week ago
TSR Goes Green: How important will the environment be in this year's election?Last reply 2 weeks ago
TSR Big Discussion #1: What should be top priority to protect the environment?Last reply 2 weeks ago
Where do you stand on the political spectrum (8values)? – Take a quiz here!Last reply 3 weeks ago
2024 UK general election speculation and build-up threadLast reply 3 weeks ago
No progress made on half of UK government’s levelling-up targetsLast reply 3 weeks ago
Trump needs a $464m bond in six days. What if he can't get it?
