The Brexit Party going to crush the European Elections

Bold prediction but not one the polling supports despite you already talking about their numbers...

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1118859517620572163?s=19

Pretty much just replaced UKIP, and are as relevant as they were.

Who saw that coming?

Will the Remoaners try to insist on a rerun, or something??

The biggest joke is how Continuity UK have split the Remain vote.
Their percentage share will be embarrassing. Farage is going to tear them a new one. THAT is how you conduct a political campaign, watch and learn, Remainer kiddies.

Above all, I can't wait till those like Umuna and Soubry get turfed out of Parliament at the next election and are kicked into well deserved obscurity. Get all the sympathetic media coverage from the London bubble, Remainer media you want, it will make no difference.

When you are hated, you are hated. Don't let the door hit your @rses on the way out, Anna, Chuka, Heidi, Luciana et al...

What are your thoughts on UKIP?

Who saw that coming?

Will the Remoaners try to insist on a rerun, or something??

The biggest joke is how Continuity UK have split the Remain vote.
Their percentage share will be embarrassing. Farage is going to tear them a new one. THAT is how you conduct a political campaign, watch and learn, Remainer kiddies.

Above all, I can't wait till those like Umuna and Soubry get turfed out of Parliament at the next election and are kicked into well deserved obscurity. Get all the sympathetic media coverage from the London bubble, Remainer media you want, it will make no difference.

When you are hated, you are hated. Don't let the door hit your @rses on the way out, Anna, Chuka, Heidi, Luciana et al...

What are your thoughts on UKIP?

I'm not going to waste my time on this crap. These issues have been debated many times before, and it's clear you're very ignorant of the reality of the situation when you make statements like this.



What an absurdity. It's remainers fault that the only way hardnose Brexiteers can enforce their minority opinion is through violence? That makes no sense at all. If you want a no-deal burn-the-borders Brexit, then you need to convince people that it's a good idea, not enforce it via fascism.

They have always been nationalist, anti immigration, and anti EU, and in this they they share common cause with Farage. Since he left, however they have also become very anti Islamist, with the addition of Sargon and Dankula, and refusal to join in the witchhuntery of Tommy Robinson (who actually hasn't joined them, and is standing as an MEP as an Independent but you would never have guessed that to read the liberal mainstream media.)

This is essentially the same programme as the European Radical Right. The party that just got 10% in Spain, Gert Wilders vehicle, the AfD, the new version of Le Pen's party which seems to change its name every five minutes, the Sweden Democrats. So I see them as the UK version of those parties.

UKIP will not match them in electoral terms, in fact FPTP will ensure that they get nowhere. Elsewhere in Europe, under proportional representation the radical right gets electoral representation. The concerns they are a manifestation of are not going away heer or in the rest of Europe. Whatever Remainers try and pretend to themselves the EU is corrupt and decaying and deeply unpopular with everyone except the globalist elite and the metropolitan middle classes of Europe. Brexit has proven it to be what we have always argued. inherently, structurally, inimical to democracy. No-one seriously doubts that now, not even rabid Remainers. So UKIP isn't going to fade away unless the issues it is a response to also fade away.

Farage is using them to differentiate. He is adapting the Blair playbook. Tommy Robinson is his Clause 4 if you like. Which is a very very clever strategy, if deeply unprincipled. Farage actually agrees with everything Tommy R says about the Islamisation of Europe. But he knows the wider electorate isn't prepared (yet) to accept that truth, and the way to gain electoral success in our deeply flawed electoral system is to lie about what you truly believe and pretend to be what you are not.

But this is in pursuit of his one overarching aim, in which he is sincere. Brexit. UKIP has a pro Brexit policy, but it is one of many. It has a radical right wing programme. Farage subordinates that programme in his attempt to achieve Brexit.

Interesting post. It will be interesting to see if the Brexit Party will be a flash in the pan party or whether they can achieve what UKIP failed and build a substantive policy platform beyond the EU, although the party's name may be a clear indication that it's the former.

I also may disagree with Farage on most things, but you really can't deny his ability. Compare the Brexit party polling at near 30% to Change UK at 3%!

The Spanish elections are quite interesting too. Since 2008 we have seen the Centre Left being obliterated just about everywhere. Perhaps now, as the polticial fractures, we may see the same for the centre right.

Farage is a phenomenon and had been constantly underrated by the commentariat. Constantly.

You still see the same tired attack lines, but they are losing their lustre. The fact he want to Public School. How on earth can he help that?? Then there is " poor Nigel. He has never been elected as an MP despite standing x times."

It is an absurd observation, which entirely misses the point. Does anyone seriously doubt that if he had wanted an easy life he couldn't have found selection in some safe Tory seat, where the party machine assures the biggest morons going (and there are plenty of them in the shires) a political sinecure for an entire nothing career, as lobby fodder? Even Cabinet Ministers largely achieve little of lasting importance, they are in office for too short a time. He chose making a political difference over being an MP, and is probably more famous worldwide than all but a handful of MP's who occupy the greatest Offices of State. Apart from May herself, in fact, is there anyone at Westminster more famous than him and he hasn't even got a seat!?

There are literally hundreds of MP's who DID get elected, who could walk down any street in the country (maybe even in their own Constituency!) unrecognised. Who can say that of Farage? He is that rare thing, the politician as rock star. Why? I have no idea, the best I can't come up with is raw charisma, we can't define it, but we all recognise it when we see it.

It is much harder to get elected outside the mainstream in our FPTP system. These sneerers ought to try it. With nothing but his eloquence and drive he has had more influence of British Foreign Policy than most post war Foreign Secretaries.

And his career isn't over, he could even be at his peak.

One of the most gifted politicians of his generation. Even Cameron admitted that.

I believe the issue is there is more than one remain based party. The Brexit party obviously wants to leave therefore Leave voters will vote for them but it would be interesting to compare how many voters they get compared to the remain parties. I also believe the marketing of the Brexit party has been extremely successful with a constant stream of members who are running

Some of what you say is true, other things are simply wrong.

First, Farage is definitely a phenomenon. He's made the biggest impact to British politics since Blair, and arguably even bigger. His political acumen in this era of shoddy politicians is second to none.

Second, people mention him being a public schoolboy for one huge reason; namely, that he talks about sticking it to the "elite", which he is very much part of. Part of his charisma is that he is able to fool a vast number of the electorate that he is the average British guy, simply by being interviewed in pubs. That has been lapped up by literally millions of people.

Third, and as above, Farage is a fantastic liar. Some people have just got the knack - and he has it. That, combined with his enthusiasm and ability to exacerbate people's deep seated xenophobia, is why he's so effective. He's made xenophobia a dominant social norm amazingly well, and normalised a feeling that generations have tried to subdue because what it can lead to.

Fourth, he didn't choose to be more effective not as an MP. Someone who had sought election 7 times clearly wanted to be an MP. Fair enough he's been more effective than any elected parliamentarian, but it is beyond absurd to say he chose this. Instead, he's made the most of not being elected. Weird to represent this in any other way since it does not detract from his achievements.

Lastly, it's a shame he's been this effective. He's making this country poorer while, simultaneously, having a regressive effect on society. He shouldn't be idolised, or even commended. It should only be recognised that he is very effective at what he does.

No doubt the newly formed Brexit Party will be great representatives of the United Kingdom, much like UKIP were. Barely bothering to show up, making fools of themselves when they do, and generally being the laughing stock of Europe, but managing a pretty decent slice of corruption at the same time.

Well, I will reply in kind... Some of what you say is true, other things are simply wrong.

I agree that the fact he is a public schoolboy understandably sticks in the craw of many, and he is obviously from an elite background, and is no man of the people.

But I think to so emphasise this is to miss the whole point of his appeal. What people instantly recognise about him is that he is comfortable in his own skin, and above all he says what he actually believes. (Which isn't to say that he isn't a consummate liar too, I agree with you on that). The hail fellow well met, pint down the pub thing may be an act, but the very fact he can make it is telling. He doesn't care that people might think of him as a drunken sot.

We are in an age of politicians who are schooled what to say twithin an inch of their lives. There are image consultants briefing them, focus groups parsing the party line to take, they are terrified of saying something politically incorrect so they say nothing, they lie and lie and lie and everyone can see them doing it. Ultimately Farage is sincere. He wants us out of the EU and has dedicated his life to it. What did Cameron believe in? Blair? Brown? May? Political power for its own sake, that was it. That is why when they got to the top of the slippery poll they achieved little that was positive, to countermand all that was and is negative in their legacies. They didn't know what they want to do with the power they got, so surprise surprise, nothing much they wanted happened.

One man's "xenophobia" is another's soft nationalism. Farage believes (and I agree with him and so does the majority of the population in poll after poll) that there has been too much immigration in recent years. This was not discussable in polite circles before he came along. You deprecate it, I applaud him.

Sure he stood and failed to be an MP many times, and sure he will have wanted to win (although must have known he wouldn't). But it isn't an issue for him, I think we both agree on that. And indeed his career ought to be used as a prime exemplar of the decline in Parliament as an institution in the country.

We'll have to agree to disagree on your last point of course.


(Original post by Bashtopher)

I am just going off the people I know and see around me, what more can I do.

They love watching England footie, have a bulldog tattooed on their back, their missus gives them earache, they love a Saturday night curry, and they want the foreigners gone.

I know that, Notoriety doesn't though.

So currently polling on a lower percentage than UKIP obtained in the last European elections despite getting the new party/campaign launch bounce.

Come on 52%. Where the hell are you? Do you really want Brexit?