Peterborough by election - Brexit Party for the win?

Isn’t the Brexit party just UKIP with a different name?
Or is it s completely new party?

Farage's new party since UKIP won't take him back.

UKIP got rid of him??

1. This by election (IMO) cannot be judged by the past. Politics is moving at break neck speed, and is incredibly, mind blowingly febrile, we have yet to see this reflected electorally. Sure FPTP props up the Tory/Labour duopoly, even though both parties are increasingly unpopular and that system no longer serves our democratic needs, arguably. In a General Election what you say will be relevant. But as I keep saying this is a by election.

2. The result will hinge on who can hoover up the Remainer vote and appear to be the likely winner, or if it remains split. The Lib Dems are masters at doing that, they have form, that is why I say this. Of course if any of the Remainer Parties can take an overwhelmingly lead in the campaign, the Greens, Change UK, even Labour, they could win it.

Utterly extraordinary things can happen. Look at Galloway's victory in Bradford. Who saw that coming?

The chance of an upset victory is still extremely small. BP cannot rely on protest votes alone, especially in a region that has traditionally voted Conservative.



I think there will be too much of a split vote for any of the non-mainstream parties to have a shot at this.



That was indeed an extrodinary result, which is exactly the point. Stuff like this can happen but in British politics it's incredibly rare. The only other recent instance of a by-election being stolen away by a fresh candidate was when that tory MP defected to UKIP, and those circumstances don't really apply to Peterborough's situation I think.

Maybe I'll be eating my words in a month's time, but I really don't see how BP could hope to gain the seat here. They've already ruled out putting Farage up for the seat which means it's going to be some nobody on the ballot paper, so short of some ridiculously successful campaigning or (another) major political incident or scandal it's not at all likely they'll succeed.

I'm struggling to decide whether 'apposite aphorism' (which I greatly like) is tautologous.

You still write beautifully. It was a highlight of returning

By election upsets (against the governing party) are by no mean rare. In fact they have been so common over the years since, say, Orpington in the sixties, as to be almost a mid term norm.

Thatcher was particularly prone to them, although it didn't stop her getting three thumping election victories.

This is a Labour seat, and takes place under a Tory Government unpopular to an almost unprecedented degree. Under normal circumstances Labour should destroy the Tories here. The fact that it is even seriously discussable as a non Labour victory is what makes it so interesting.

There is going to be a by election in Peterborough, the recall petition against the disgraced Labour MP has been successful.

Hostage to fortune time. I forecast a win for the Brexit Party. Peterborough is a Leave Constituency. Pretty poor, lots of EU migrants.

The Labour MP is a pile of $hite, not too put to fine a point on it. Voters tend to punish that. We are in a febrile state as a country. By Elections can be extraordinary.

Sure, it is all to play for but in my bones I sense a shock.

Thoughts?

I was more considering modern politics (post-'97), I don't really see stuff from decades prior being particularly relevant in predicting present-day results. As you said yourself, things have moved on.



Labour only nabbed the seat in the snap election and their current majority is very slim, it was a Tory seat for the three parliaments prior to that. Obviously, the main reason Labour stand to lose this seat is the fact that their sitting MP was criminally convicted. The Tories only need to achieve a small swing, and if a chunk of Labour votes get absorbed by BP (or LD or whoever) that only works further to the Tories' advantage.

Note also that the lowest vote percentage that the Conservatives have gotten in this constituency is 40% (from 2015; the next lowest result is from the 1970s). The chances of them dropping below 30-35% is minimal, even with the party in the state that it's in right now.

And even if BP exceed all expectations and manage to get a full 10% off the Tories, maybe 15-20% off of Labour, that's still not going to be enough to command a majority and win the seat. Again, 3rd place is definitely doable for them, 2nd at a stretch, but the chances of outright victory are looking very small right now. At least that's how I see it.

The fact that a convicted criminal voted (whilst still tagged I believe) decisively voted alongside the Labour Party (under whose banner she was elected) in one of the most important votes held in the Commons for a century is an appalling reflection both on Parliament and that Party. Shameful. The voters will punish Labour for this unnecessary by election (unnecessary since her lack of moral probity should have been spotted by Labour before she even became a candidate), mark my words.

Obviously someone of your ilk is going to get their knickers in a twist or panties in a wad (those are the normal expressions, the first British the second American) at the mere mention of "EU migrants." How very dare I? How racist, how xenophobic! But it is relevant, because there is a causal link between support for Brexit in Eastern England (and places like Peterborough) and high rates of recent EU migration. That is a fact and the facts don't care about your feelings. How many of these EU migrants will have been here long enough to get a vote, and will then vote is a different matter. I don't believe it will be material, but we will see.

She was removed from the Labour Party after the Court's decision. That was all Labour could do, they didn't have the power themselves to remove her as an MP as I'm sure you well know.

How's does the fact she then voted against the Government in a vote on Brexit have anything to do with Labour, let alone reflect badly on them? She wasn't in the party, let alone on the Labour whip when she voted as she did.

In terms of foresight, I'm not sure exactly what you think should have led the party to predict this would happen. She was a qualified solicitor, who was accepted onto the roll by the regulatory body. She had no previous convictions as far as I'm aware. How exactly was the party supposed to predict she would do what she did? She was a qualified solicitor, not some convicted fraudster when she was selected as thr candidate.

Farage has run in a multitude of seats and never breached 32% of the vote so although he may get close, i doubt the Brexit Party will win given that the Tories and Labour have a starting base from 2017 of 46 and 48%. CUK and Farage would need to be taking two thirds of the Con-Lab vote to prevent one of them winning.

I do think it will be interesting if both CUK and BRX run given that the by-election is likely in June but i would imagine that Labour will hold the seat.

The caveat here is of course that if May gets her deal with Corbyn then as bad as it is, it will settle the minds of a fair group of people and make it a challenge.

The vetting procedure (or its absence) is the issue.

Agreed. I think the BP will probably eat into the Tory party vote, allowing Labour to hold the seat on a low turnout.

When she was vetted she was on the roll of solicitors, meaning she would have passed the character and suitability test of the Solicitors Regulation Authority.

Unless she had any previous convictions or incidents of note, I'm not really sure what exactly you imagine vetting should/would have brought up to indicate she was likely to act as she did.

The bookies agree with you.

https://www.peterboroughtoday.co.uk/news/politics/labour-made-favourite-by-the-bookies-to-win-peterborough-by-election-1-8912084

The BP at 2/1 looks very tempting I have to say.

Notice the odds for the Tories and Dez! Looks like he was wise not to take up my offer of a private bet...

Just read that George Galloway has approached Farage to be the Brexit Party candidate and will stand as an independent if turned down!

He would be a formidable candidate and threaten the Labour vote. Wow.

Surely Farage would not accept him. He is toxic.

He is toxic.

That's basically standard fare for the far-right.