Did Brexit win the Euro Elections?

Entertainment Forum Helper, Debate & Current Affairs Helper

The media have portrayed it as a hard Brexit win. Rubbish.

The Brexit party clearly won the election. Remain didn’t.

Reply 2

Original post by Andrew97

The media have portrayed it as a hard Brexit win. Rubbish.

The Brexit party clearly won the election. Remain didn’t.

Remain parties got a higher number of votes than BP. So how does that work?

If you look at the downward swings for Tory and Labour (cumulative 26%) and BP got 30.5%, it would suggest the Brexiteers left the main parties and voted for BP. The people continuing to vote for the main parties are people who did not vote for Brexit in the first place, and are unlikely to support it today.

(edited 4 years ago)

Reply 3

Entertainment Forum Helper, Debate & Current Affairs Helper

Original post by Notoriety

Remain parties got a higher number of votes than BP. So how does that work?

The sum of the votes of 4 parties is higher than the total votes for 1 party doesn’t mean much.

Reply 4

Original post by Andrew97

The sum of the votes of 4 parties is higher than the total votes for 1 party doesn’t mean much.

When all 3 parties have one clear message, it kinda does.

Reply 5

Fullofsurprises

OP

Original post by Andrew97

The media have portrayed it as a hard Brexit win. Rubbish.

Which media do you watch/read?

The Telegraph this morning: "How Farage won his election victory".
The Mail yesterday: "Farage sweeps the board: electorate demand a hard Brexit".
Sky News ticker on election night: "Brexit party sweeping to victory".

Reply 6

Fullofsurprises

OP

Original post by Andrew97

The sum of the votes of 4 parties is higher than the total votes for 1 party doesn’t mean much.

Add all the Remain parties and all the Leave parties. Remain ended ahead.

Reply 7

Entertainment Forum Helper, Debate & Current Affairs Helper

Original post by Notoriety

When all 3 parties have one clear message, it kinda does.

A clear message that only got 40% of the vote roughly. In reality it’s still 52-48 and nothing has changed.

Original post by Fullofsurprises

Which media do you watch/read?

The Telegraph this morning: "How Farage won his election victory".
The Mail yesterday: "Farage sweeps the board: electorate demand a hard Brexit".
Sky News ticker on election night: "Brexit party sweeping to victory".

The telegraph and the mail would say that, appeal to their voter base. Sky news was correct. LBC had different presenters bringing this up (the sum of votes as well)

Reply 8

Original post by Andrew97

A clear message that only got 40% of the vote roughly. In reality it’s still 52-48 and nothing has changed.

A simple agreement, the easiest there has ever been, has become a complete **** show with 2 extensions now and there is not a proposed deal that is gaining any clear support in Parliament. A lot has changed.

Reply 9

Entertainment Forum Helper, Debate & Current Affairs Helper

Original post by Notoriety

A simple agreement, the easiest there has ever been, has become a complete **** show with 2 extensions now and there is not a proposed deal that is gaining any clear support in Parliament. A lot has changed.

Nothing has changed in terms of how the country is divided rather than the actual process.

Reply 10

maachu_pichuu

Remain would win a second referendum, Farage is dreading the prospect of brexit being toshed out. Young people want to remain and old people are dying, the UK is never leaving the EU now. In 2017 I thought it would be close, but now I see a solid 60-40 win for remain.

Reply 11

Fullofsurprises

OP

Original post by maachu_pichuu

Remain would win a second referendum, Farage is dreading the prospect of brexit being toshed out. Young people want to remain and old people are dying, the UK is never leaving the EU now. In 2017 I thought it would be close, but now I see a solid 60-40 win for remain.

Agreed, this is why they are so desperate not to permit a second referendum.

Reply 12

Original post by Andrew97

Nothing has changed in terms of how the country is divided rather than the actual process.

I would suggest the difficulty of the process, now having been realised, would cause some people to change their minds.

To get back on track, all we know is that one party definitely in support of Brexit got 30.5%. Parties definitely not in support of Brexit got more than that. What the main parties are doing now is completely unknown.

Reply 13

maachu_pichuu

Original post by Fullofsurprises

Agreed, this is why they are so desperate not to permit a second referendum.

I actually work in the elections (as a poll clerk and counting assistant- been doing it for 10 years now) and I was surprised at the surge in the green and lib dem vote. The lib dems are going to do VERY WELL in the next general election. I don't mind the lib dems, since they are a central party, what I don't like is far right or far left, as that distorts the economy.

Reply 14

Entertainment Forum Helper, Debate & Current Affairs Helper

Original post by Notoriety

I would suggest the difficulty of the process, now having been realised, would cause some people to change their minds.

To get back on track, all we know is that one party definitely in support of Brexit got 30.5%. Parties definitely not in support of Brexit got more than that. What the main parties are doing now is completely unknown.

I would add at least UKIP and the Tories to that (their official position is leave).

As I said it’s not as simple as adding up votes for both sides, you had lower turnout in leave supporting areas (there fault for not voting of course) and also the fact that I don’t think it’s reasonable to assume everybody you voted for remain (or leave for that matter) parties voted solely on their opinion of the EU. (I imaine the Greens, Labour and SNP would be an example of this)

Reply 15

fallen_acorns

Btexit-wise Neither side really won..

More people voted for parties that support leave then remain..
But more people voted for parties that want to remain then want a hard Brexit..

That's all you can draw from it

Indivially the Brexit part and farage won, and the Tories and ukip badly lost

Reply 16

Arran90

Original post by maachu_pichuu

The lib dems are going to do VERY WELL in the next general election.

The Lib-Dems are a one and a half issue party like UKIP was. Nobody knows what the Lib-Dems really stand for apart from cancelling Brexit. This Euro Election was really their trump card like Euro Elections in the last were UKIP's trump card.

How Lib-Dems perform in an election under FPTP fought on domestic issues remains to be seen. They could well be the biggest danger to Jeremy Corbyn in a future general election judging from the Euro Election result in Islington.

Reply 17

Wōden

15

Original post by Notoriety

Remain parties got a higher number of votes than BP. So how does that work?

If you look at the downward swings for Tory and Labour (cumulative 26%) and BP got 30.5%, it would suggest the Brexiteers left the main parties and voted for BP. The people continuing to vote for the main parties are people who did not vote for Brexit in the first place, and are unlikely to support it today.

Pure speculation and what-iffery, you don't know that at all. Even if we are to take the view that Brexit was the only issue in everybody's minds in this election, then I frankly don't see why any true remainer would vote for the Conservatives, a party who still hold an official 'leave' position, have no intention of ever holding a second referendum, and look highly unlikely to ever elect a pro-remain leader in the near future (all odds point to the opposite in fact).

Reply 18

anarchism101

17

Neither Brexit nor Remain won per se. The purists on both sides beat the moderates. Hopes for consensus and compromise lost. In the short term, any deal is dead. The Tory leadership election will likely produce a winner who cannot hold a majority in the Commons, thus leading to a general election which will likely be a straight vote between No Deal and Full Revocation of Article 50. Hang on to your seats, this is going to be messy.

Reply 19