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Am I still in time to join the Tories? I'd like to vote against BoJo. I looked at the tory website but it's not clear how long the processing would take. Does anybody know? Thanks
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#2
it's pretty instant, there's plenty of time
(Original post by phloaw)
Am I still in time to join the Tories? I'd like to vote against BoJo. I looked at the tory website but it's not clear how long the processing would take. Does anybody know? Thanks
Am I still in time to join the Tories? I'd like to vote against BoJo. I looked at the tory website but it's not clear how long the processing would take. Does anybody know? Thanks
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#3
No, you require to the a fully paid up member for three months prior to the election process beginning.
You can join the party whenever you like and approval will be pretty quick, but you won't acquire voting rights for this leadership election now.
You can join the party whenever you like and approval will be pretty quick, but you won't acquire voting rights for this leadership election now.
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#4
(Original post by L i b)
No, you require to the a fully paid up member for three months prior to the election process beginning.
You can join the party whenever you like and approval will be pretty quick, but you won't acquire voting rights for this leadership election now.
No, you require to the a fully paid up member for three months prior to the election process beginning.
You can join the party whenever you like and approval will be pretty quick, but you won't acquire voting rights for this leadership election now.
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#5
(Original post by phloaw)
Am I still in time to join the Tories? I'd like to vote against BoJo. I looked at the tory website but it's not clear how long the processing would take. Does anybody know? Thanks
Am I still in time to join the Tories? I'd like to vote against BoJo. I looked at the tory website but it's not clear how long the processing would take. Does anybody know? Thanks
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#6
(Original post by That'sGreat)
Your vote is pretty irrelevant even if you could vote, BoJo won't win by a single vote - he'll probably get a landslide
Your vote is pretty irrelevant even if you could vote, BoJo won't win by a single vote - he'll probably get a landslide
But all the same, voting is rarely about one vote making a difference. If it was, we'd hardly ever bother in an electorate any larger than about 20 people.
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#7
(Original post by That'sGreat)
Your vote is pretty irrelevant even if you could vote, BoJo won't win by a single vote - he'll probably get a landslide
Your vote is pretty irrelevant even if you could vote, BoJo won't win by a single vote - he'll probably get a landslide
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#8
(Original post by L i b)
Yeah, they thought Theresa May would get a landslide in 2017 too. A lot can change in a few weeks. There's a significant anti-Boris vote that, if an alternative candidate can unite, is certainly in with a good chance.
But all the same, voting is rarely about one vote making a difference. If it was, we'd hardly ever bother in an electorate any larger than about 20 people.
Yeah, they thought Theresa May would get a landslide in 2017 too. A lot can change in a few weeks. There's a significant anti-Boris vote that, if an alternative candidate can unite, is certainly in with a good chance.
But all the same, voting is rarely about one vote making a difference. If it was, we'd hardly ever bother in an electorate any larger than about 20 people.
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#9
(Original post by ColinDent)
You do understand that Mr Johnson already has enough votes to get him into the final 2 candidates yes?
You do understand that Mr Johnson already has enough votes to get him into the final 2 candidates yes?
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#10
(Original post by L i b)
I'm not really sure where you got "he doesn't think Boris will go through to the final two" in anything that I've written. Needless to say, yes - I do believe he will almost certainly go into the final two.
I'm not really sure where you got "he doesn't think Boris will go through to the final two" in anything that I've written. Needless to say, yes - I do believe he will almost certainly go into the final two.
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#11
(Original post by ColinDent)
So where amongst the conservative party members is the significant anti Boris vote?
So where amongst the conservative party members is the significant anti Boris vote?
In terms of the membership, in the last two Conservative Home polls (which, of course, aren't great metrics given the size of the electorate and the nature of the survey) Boris has been on 43% and 54%.
Rory Stewart came second in the last one - but is just into double-figures. However if we assume that Boris has somewhere in the region of half the party backing him, it's down to the second candidate (who, bar Stewart, were all on single figures) to reach that other 40%-odd percent who don't want Boris. If the other candidate can absorb a respectable portion of that, then it becomes a far more evenly matched race and a real competition of ideas between two alternative visions of the party.
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#12
(Original post by L i b)
You seem to be switching between talking about Conservative MPs and Conservative members a bit here.
In terms of the membership, in the last two Conservative Home polls (which, of course, aren't great metrics given the size of the electorate and the nature of the survey) Boris has been on 43% and 54%.
Rory Stewart came second in the last one - but is just into double-figures. However if we assume that Boris has somewhere in the region of half the party backing him, it's down to the second candidate (who, bar Stewart, were all on single figures) to reach that other 40%-odd percent who don't want Boris. If the other candidate can absorb a respectable portion of that, then it becomes a far more evenly matched race and a real competition of ideas between two alternative visions of the party.
You seem to be switching between talking about Conservative MPs and Conservative members a bit here.
In terms of the membership, in the last two Conservative Home polls (which, of course, aren't great metrics given the size of the electorate and the nature of the survey) Boris has been on 43% and 54%.
Rory Stewart came second in the last one - but is just into double-figures. However if we assume that Boris has somewhere in the region of half the party backing him, it's down to the second candidate (who, bar Stewart, were all on single figures) to reach that other 40%-odd percent who don't want Boris. If the other candidate can absorb a respectable portion of that, then it becomes a far more evenly matched race and a real competition of ideas between two alternative visions of the party.
And Rory Stewart's version of leaving is not actually leaving, as I've said to another poster let's see who is correct in a month or so.
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#13
(Original post by ColinDent)
Not switching at all, members will back him to the hilt when it comes to brexit, Rory Stewart will gain very little other support from the members than he already has, in a 2 horse race between a leaver and a remainer within the conservative party membership the leaver wins hands down.
And Rory Stewart's version of leaving is not actually leaving, as I've said to another poster let's see who is correct in a month or so.
Not switching at all, members will back him to the hilt when it comes to brexit, Rory Stewart will gain very little other support from the members than he already has, in a 2 horse race between a leaver and a remainer within the conservative party membership the leaver wins hands down.
And Rory Stewart's version of leaving is not actually leaving, as I've said to another poster let's see who is correct in a month or so.
Rory Stewart's position, incidentally, is to leave by 31 October with a deal largely similar to that which was negotiated by Theresa May. Let's not forget that Boris Johnson has also voted for that same deal, saying that "we have to get this thing over the line" and noting that it was at the time the only way to stop Parliament blocking Brexit. He will inherent precisely the same parliamentary arithmetic as existed at that time - these things have not changed.
Bar the rather ridiculous suggestion of proroguing Parliament to force through no deal - which I don't think Boris would actually do, and in any case I don't think the government is prepared to do by 31 October - Stewart, Johnson and all the other candidates are presented with the same limited scope of options.
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#14
(Original post by L i b)
You seem to be switching between talking about Conservative MPs and Conservative members a bit here.
In terms of the membership, in the last two Conservative Home polls (which, of course, aren't great metrics given the size of the electorate and the nature of the survey) Boris has been on 43% and 54%.
Rory Stewart came second in the last one - but is just into double-figures. However if we assume that Boris has somewhere in the region of half the party backing him, it's down to the second candidate (who, bar Stewart, were all on single figures) to reach that other 40%-odd percent who don't want Boris. If the other candidate can absorb a respectable portion of that, then it becomes a far more evenly matched race and a real competition of ideas between two alternative visions of the party.
You seem to be switching between talking about Conservative MPs and Conservative members a bit here.
In terms of the membership, in the last two Conservative Home polls (which, of course, aren't great metrics given the size of the electorate and the nature of the survey) Boris has been on 43% and 54%.
Rory Stewart came second in the last one - but is just into double-figures. However if we assume that Boris has somewhere in the region of half the party backing him, it's down to the second candidate (who, bar Stewart, were all on single figures) to reach that other 40%-odd percent who don't want Boris. If the other candidate can absorb a respectable portion of that, then it becomes a far more evenly matched race and a real competition of ideas between two alternative visions of the party.
No-one will jump ship until the leadership contest is over but then there a real risk some MPs will go. Brexiteers have been handing out metaphorical kickings to Remainer colleagues for months without regard to the fact that they will need the support of those colleagues to stay in Government. If Boris, or whoever, tilts Remainerwards to keep them onboard there is a risk that Leavers will prefer the ideological purity of the Brexit Party.
The problem will become more acute as the Tories have to seek another Brexit extension because they found no-one to renegotiate with before 31 October and a “No Deal” Brexit is politically undeliverable.
A lot of MPs will have made the calculation that Labour’s problems in Scotland mean that even if they get into Government, it will be without the strength to pursue a radical left wing agenda.
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#15
Bit of a waste of money bro. Much more economical to invest in a milkshake and hurl it at him.
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#17
(Original post by L i b)
Yeah, they thought Theresa May would get a landslide in 2017 too. A lot can change in a few weeks. There's a significant anti-Boris vote that, if an alternative candidate can unite, is certainly in with a good chance.
But all the same, voting is rarely about one vote making a difference. If it was, we'd hardly ever bother in an electorate any larger than about 20 people.
Yeah, they thought Theresa May would get a landslide in 2017 too. A lot can change in a few weeks. There's a significant anti-Boris vote that, if an alternative candidate can unite, is certainly in with a good chance.
But all the same, voting is rarely about one vote making a difference. If it was, we'd hardly ever bother in an electorate any larger than about 20 people.
May lost the supposed 'landslide' more to do with a poor election campaign and the overarching issue of Brexit, considering 70% of Tory party members are happy for a no-deal - BoJo has little chance of losing. The fake Rory Stewart will not get a look in.
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#18
(Original post by ColinDent)
Oh no, according to 04MR17 there's no conclusive proof that BoJo will win and actually Rory Stewart stands as much chance.
Oh no, according to 04MR17 there's no conclusive proof that BoJo will win and actually Rory Stewart stands as much chance.
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#19
(Original post by That'sGreat)
I don't know who 04MR17 is, but they clearly are deluded over this matter. Boo will win by a landslide.
I don't know who 04MR17 is, but they clearly are deluded over this matter. Boo will win by a landslide.
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#20
(Original post by nulli tertius)
because the risk is that something occurs, Boris pulls out and the Party is left with a leader it would not have chosen if Boris had not stood.
because the risk is that something occurs, Boris pulls out and the Party is left with a leader it would not have chosen if Boris had not stood.
When I said Boris Johnson will win by a landslide, this was on the basis that things would go normally, I can't account for every little factor that might stop him running. But sure, if BoJo gets photographed paying for a sex slave I'm sure he will not be elected as party leader.
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