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Iran Shoots Down RQ-4 BAMS-D $150m Drone near Persian Gulf

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Original post by Palmyra
The reality is that the US has imposed economic warfare against Iran but cannot afford to go to war with Iran. Thus Iran feels it has greater leeway to assert itself in the Persian Gulf region because it knows the Pentagon and Trump are both opposed to war with Iran.


1) A few days ago the Houthis launched a cruise missile strike against a water desalination facility in Saudi Arabia.
2) A few weeks prior the Houthis launched an armed drone attack that pierced 500km deep into KSA without being detected and successfully attacked a PG-Red Sea (East-West) oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia, designed to enable it to export oil via other avenues than the Persian Gulf/Strait of Hormuz.
3) Just the other day the operational offices etc of ExxonMobil and other US oil companies were hit by a rocket in Iraq, forcing them to evacuate.

I could go on. People who follow military and political affairs will understand what each of those attacks are in response to and the signals they are designed to send to deter US aggression against Iran.


Persians invented chess and luckily for Iran brash overconfident illiterate businessmen rarely make for good chess players. @Tempest II

4.9% recession? Ouch.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/US-Oil-Sanctions-Trigger-Recession-In-Iran.html

And it's only going to get worse.
"Keep in mind, BAMS-D, like the Global Hawk and the MQ-4C to a degree, has a zero penetration mission. It doesn't fly into contested airspace. It is literally a sitting duck. The only reason it would do so would be if it was off the leash or there was a major navigational malfunction. It is far more likely Iran just shot it out of international airspace as the Pentagon states."

As I've been saying.

Source -
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/28613/everything-we-know-about-irans-claim-that-it-shot-down-a-u-s-rq-4-global-hawk-drone

Of course, Iran has a history of attempting to shoot down US RPAS in international airspace:

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/we-now-know-f-22-raptor-flew-under-iranian-air-force-f-4-phantom-59522
Reply 82
Original post by fallen_acorns
Its a crazy world we live in, where a country with literally 50x less financial resources and a fraction of the military budget or capability can provoke the larger power, knowing that the larger power can't really do anything back, or at least any action taken back would hurt the larger power far more.

Its a very unusual position historically to be in, but its where we are. Obviously there will be some american's who will think 'well, in all out war, we will crush them!' and they would be right, but all out war is an impossibility, it doesn't exist like it used to, and likely never will.

American can't use their nuclear dominance for obvious international reasons..
They can't use their dominance in numbers/population, because the value of human life has, for the first time, vastly exceeding the value of war/conquest in the past century (in western nations)
They can't use their military and technological superiority, because you can never truly win against an opponent who would die before giving up, and eventually it will become too costly in terms of life/money to keep going (see basically every US war since WW2)

All, the absolute most they could do is send in a few strikes, bomb a few targets.. but for what? A show of force? Its not going to threaten a nation like Iran away from actions, it will provoke them to do more.. so why bother?

There is no positive path forward for the US here, and they know it. Iraq/Afghanistan were the last straws.. they showed that even against incredibly week opponents, you can't win if they are prepared to die, and they showed that the US population really doesn't have the resolve to handle prolonged conflicts. There is no desire for war with Iran among the American people, and any president who started one would become the most unpopular president of the past century, given the costs that it would incur.

What makes you think the Iranians are suicidal exactly...?

Its a crazy time we live in.. in the previous era, Iran would be finished by now, it would be defeated and occupied (as it was), but in this era.. Iran actually has the advantage over the larger nations in conflict situations like these.. and it seems to fully know it, and is prepared to act on it.

Doubtful. There's a good reason the strategists cautioned America against going near Iran with a 10 foot barge pole at the turn of the millennium.
Original post by Napp
What makes you think the Iranians are suicidal exactly...?

Doubtful. There's a good reason the strategists cautioned America against going near Iran with a 10 foot barge pole at the turn of the millennium.


which bit of my post detailing why they can do this and get away with it, makes you presume that I think they are suicidal?

+ "Previous Era" is a lot longer ago then a the turn of the millennium. I would describe the previous military era as either before Vietnam or the Korean war, I can see arguments for both.


Excellent morning entertainment! :rofl:
Original post by Tempest II
Another reason why I very much doubt the RPAS was in Iranian airspace. Despite what Hollywood and the press may sometimes think, armed forces can be rather risk-averse; if you c*ck up a something big, your career will pretty much be over, at the very least.

No way is anyone signing off such as expensive asset flying over Iran when an MQ-1/MQ-9 could have caused a similar incident. Whereas if the Yanks were trying to spy on Iran within their airspace, they'd use a VLO aircraft.


I would like to say that the SAM that Iran used has a operational range of 50km which extends beyond Iran's airspace.

It is entirely possible that Iran shot it down by mistake as they thought they probably thought it flew into their airspace when in reality it was it was very close to Iranian airspace. (but not inside it).

I don't think the US was expecting the Iranian army to take such measures.

I really doubt that the US would want to risk loosing their UAV like that (which costs more than an f35 btw). It is very likely that it never entered in Iranian airspace.
(edited 4 years ago)
Reply 86
Original post by stoyfan
I would like to say that the SAM that Iran used has a operational range of 50km which extends beyond Iran's airspace.

An interesting problem arises there though. If the only criteria for shooting down an enemy unit was it being in your airspace war would be a tricky thing. That is to say, this unit is a spy plane which, 50mi or greater, is going to be able to look at you and thus should be able to give you the ability to shoot them down if you so wish.

It is entirely possible that Iran shot it down by mistake as they thought they probably thought it flew into their airspace when in reality it was it was very close to Iranian airspace. (but not inside it).

Define mistake?
I mean i imagine the RCS is quite unique on such craft and unless the Iranians radar is complete crap or the Americans are lying about the flight path (both seem to be equally believable) it would seem to be highly questionable a 'mistake' in the traditional sens eof the word, had been made.

I don't think the US was expecting the Iranian army to take such measures.

It isnt without precedent. Although for clarity I believe they the IRGC were the ones pulling the trigger werent they? A decidedly different organisation from the army.
As far as I know, Iran wanted to take the dron to UN as evidence against the US, but the US wanted to start another war with them, but hey... at least we are a part of 'civilised society', right? :biggrin:

Anyway, the US motto is 'the whole world will obey our orders and let us do whatever we want otherwise we may just start a war with you over the night. Love, yours United States'
Iran has shown parts of the RQ-4 wreckage it recovered from its territorial waters (when will the US show the wreckage they find in 'international waters'?):

Update: Iran said that a P-8 Poseidon was flying alongside the RQ-4 and that it deliberately did not shoot the P-8 down because it wanted to avoid loss of life and just send a signal about its ability and determination to defend its borders/airspace.


Good move - if they shot down the P-8 Poseidon too (there were 35 US passengers on board) there would almost definitely have been US retaliation.


Iran also said that it issued two warnings to the RQ-4 before it shot it down.
(edited 4 years ago)
Well that's not good at all..
Just wondering what the US would do if Iran's spying drone would be spying on Americans around their borders :biggrin:
President Trump has commented on the fact that Iran chose not to down the P-8 jet carrying 38 US passengers flying alongside the downed RQ-4, saying "we appreciate" that Iran didn't shoot it down:


"President Trump said Saturday Iran was “very wise” not to shoot down a manned plane when it decided to down an unmanned U.S. surveillance drone.

“There was a plane with 38 people yesterday, did you see that? I think that's a big story. They had it in their sights and they didn't shoot it down. I think they were very wise not to do that. And we appreciate that they didn't do that. I think that was a very wise decision,” Trump told reporters Saturday."



https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/449845-trump-iran-very-wise-not-to-shoot-down-manned-plane
As much as I loathe to use Fox as a source, Gen Jack Keane makes some good points.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/trump-drone-iran-strike

The Pasdaran, or at the very least, one of its commanders, operated without the backing of the Iranian government against the RPAS.

And now the Iranians are trying to claim a USN P-8 (basically a 737 airliner designed to track ships and subs) was also in its airspace? I smell a massive amount of BS; no way would the pilot of that aircraft or their chain of command sign that off. Especially if the 38 POB total is correct.

https://breakingdefense.com/2019/06/over-past-24-hours-us-iran-each-claim-to-narrowly-avoid-deadly-attacks/
Daddy Trump and Based Bibi not gonna let this slide w/out a fight *****
Original post by Tempest II
As much as I loathe to use Fox as a source, Gen Jack Keane makes some good points.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/trump-drone-iran-strike

The Pasdaran, or at the very least, one of its commanders, operated without the backing of the Iranian government against the RPAS.

:rolleyes:

It's common procedure for individual air defence officers to make the final decision via a decentralised chain of command, this was confirmed by the head of the IRGC earlier today (or yesterday).
(edited 4 years ago)
I don't buy the 150 casualties rationale, if the issue was a disproportionate number of casualties then... Strike fewer targets. Not difficult. Trump never wanted to attack. He knows this wasn't worth going to war over.
Original post by Slim Thick
Daddy Trump and Based Bibi not gonna let this slide w/out a fight *****

Actually, looks like they did just that.
Iran released the official flight path of the RQ-4:

drone path.jpg


Also revealed the drone was flying at 52,000 feet when it was intercepted. Probably thought Iran couldn't intercept the drone at such a high altitude - oops!
Original post by fallen_acorns
Its a crazy world we live in, where a country with literally 50x less financial resources and a fraction of the military budget or capability can provoke the larger power, knowing that the larger power can't really do anything back, or at least any action taken back would hurt the larger power far more.

Its a very unusual position historically to be in, but its where we are. Obviously there will be some american's who will think 'well, in all out war, we will crush them!' and they would be right, but all out war is an impossibility, it doesn't exist like it used to, and likely never will.

American can't use their nuclear dominance for obvious international reasons..
They can't use their dominance in numbers/population, because the value of human life has, for the first time, vastly exceeding the value of war/conquest in the past century (in western nations)
They can't use their military and technological superiority, because you can never truly win against an opponent who would die before giving up, and eventually it will become too costly in terms of life/money to keep going (see basically every US war since WW2)

All, the absolute most they could do is send in a few strikes, bomb a few targets.. but for what? A show of force? Its not going to threaten a nation like Iran away from actions, it will provoke them to do more.. so why bother?

There is no positive path forward for the US here, and they know it. Iraq/Afghanistan were the last straws.. they showed that even against incredibly week opponents, you can't win if they are prepared to die, and they showed that the US population really doesn't have the resolve to handle prolonged conflicts. There is no desire for war with Iran among the American people, and any president who started one would become the most unpopular president of the past century, given the costs that it would incur.

Its a crazy time we live in.. in the previous era, Iran would be finished by now, it would be defeated and occupied (as it was), but in this era.. Iran actually has the advantage over the larger nations in conflict situations like these.. and it seems to fully know it, and is prepared to act on it.


I think you are mistaken. the nature of warfare and conflict has changed.
It would never be an all out war as the US has no interest in using land troops.
It would depend on the incident that provoked it.
It could still be quite serious.

You then make several claims which are either false misguided or flawed.
They use their larger size in a different way. It supports and finances a larger military.

You then claim they cant use technological and military superiority? Wtf do you think they are doing and why do you think they spend so much on their armed forces?

You then claim they cant win because it would become too costly in terms of lives and money.
It depends on the nature of the engagement , its objectives and how provoked they were. As it would be an engagement from the air and sea, then the chances of mass casualties is much reduced. It would be unlike any other conflict since world war 2, since they would have little interest in holding territory..

You really have to provide the scenario first to decide what might provoke a massive response by the US. If you can do that then we can discuss what the US response might be as you seem to claim they are helpless. I think you are deluded.

If Iran provokes them enough they will get conflict. You can only prod them so much and then the American people will get behind a deeply divisive president and they can enjoy taking them on. Make it outrageous enough and allies would join in. Americans arent cowards or weak they just arent interested in a war unless they feel their is a real reason.

Iran or its allies could close the straits of Hormuz. for an extended period.
They could do mass attacks on US bases.
They could target US civilians in the US or abroad.
They could do a pre emptive strike against the US navy and regional bases
They could attack US allies with substantial force.

At least in the case of the middle three you would be declaring war on the US and you will find the restraint will disappear.
You arent talking about a few strikes you are talking thousands. It would have to be thousands since they would want to degrade the Iranian air force and navy to limit losses. There arent really half measures once a provocation like that occurs.
We would then find out the effectiveness of the military from both sides.

Completely bonkers to think you will come out well from that.

Keep pushing them and you might get what you want.
Original post by 999tigger
If Iran provokes them enough they will get conflict. You can only prod them so much and then the American people will get behind a deeply divisive president and they can enjoy taking them on. Make it outrageous enough and allies would join in. Americans... arent interested in a war unless they feel their is a real reason.

LOLed hard at the bit in bold.

But yeah, you're right - Iran is definitely provoking the US by putting its country so close to the US RQ-4:

map.jpg

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