EU shoots down Boris’s Brexit plan the minute he is elected
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Original post by limetang
No deal is a big problem for both sides. I think even if it happens you will very quickly see emergency deals and legislation put in place to ensure smooth running of things.
Pragmatism will eventually win our. Neither the EU not the UK want to he the side that will put a border in Ireland (not that you really effectively could), so there won’t be one.
UK citizens in the EU and Vice Verda won’t suddenly be deported.
The UK won’t introduce checks on its side of the border at Dover because (and vice Versa).
I could be wrong but pragmatism usually wins.
Pragmatism will eventually win our. Neither the EU not the UK want to he the side that will put a border in Ireland (not that you really effectively could), so there won’t be one.
UK citizens in the EU and Vice Verda won’t suddenly be deported.
The UK won’t introduce checks on its side of the border at Dover because (and vice Versa).
I could be wrong but pragmatism usually wins.
Aye but so does common sense usually... apparently its the closed season on such things.
True, hence my disclaimer.
Original post by Napp
Aye but so does common sense usually... apparently its the closed season on such things.
Original post by limetang
No deal is a big problem for both sides. I think even if it happens you will very quickly see emergency deals and legislation put in place to ensure smooth running of things.
Whether it'll be Deal or No Deal is now up to the EU, their bluff has finally been called and it's up to them. In the meantime, Remainers keep treating themselves to the parallel universe they are dragged into by the Indy and the rest of the gutter press: Boris' plan shot down in flames by the EU? Ok.
The conservatives as a party is finished. I hope everyone has learned their lesson and will not vote for them again in the general election.
Original post by z-hog
Whether it'll be Deal or No Deal is now up to the EU, their bluff has finally been called and it's up to them.
Seriiously...?
In the meantime, Remainers keep treating themselves to the parallel universe
Which would be...?
they are dragged into by the Indy and the rest of the gutter press:
Considering the tripe i imagie you read i'm not sure you're in a position to be casting stones.
Boris' plan shot down in flames by the EU? Ok.
So which bit of the EU saying they wont renegotiate said agreement do you think supports this human fleshlights 'plan'?
All that will happen is that we'll end up with a No-Deal Brexit. Boris will definitely go ahead with Brexit - just that it'll be a "no deal" Brexit instead of negotiating something with the EU.
Original post by Napp
He doesn’t have a position to undermine? The EU have been clear that they’re not going to renegotiate anything, least of all to this fatuous egotist
So was Johnson, I doubt he cares one way or the other he just wanted to get into number 10 and saw siding with this moronic cause as the best way.
So was Johnson, I doubt he cares one way or the other he just wanted to get into number 10 and saw siding with this moronic cause as the best way.
His position is that May sucked as a negotiator so he's going to get a better deal by renegotiating. It is reasonable to assume that a more 'agreeable' negotiator will get a less favourable (but more likely) than a less agreeable one such as BoJo. And even if the EU are willing to renegotiate to avoid a no deal Brexit, they know that a deal with BoJo will be less favourable to them than May's is. My point is, the EU would say they don't want to renegotiate even if they would rather give a bit more to avoid no deal.
Original post by spotify95
All that will happen is that we'll end up with a No-Deal Brexit. Boris will definitely go ahead with Brexit - just that it'll be a "no deal" Brexit instead of negotiating something with the EU.
Whats to negotiate? They're done talking to idiots in Britain who couldnt negotiate their way out of a supermarket let along something like this. As previously evidenced.
Original post by ThomH97
His position is that May sucked as a negotiator so he's going to get a better deal by renegotiating. It is reasonable to assume that a more 'agreeable' negotiator will get a less favourable (but more likely) than a less agreeable one such as BoJo. And even if the EU are willing to renegotiate to avoid a no deal Brexit, they know that a deal with BoJo will be less favourable to them than May's is. My point is, the EU would say they don't want to renegotiate even if they would rather give a bit more to avoid no deal.
May didnt negotiate anything though... the team of negotiators did. Same will be true of johnson, especially as he knows nothing about negotiations or policy.
Original post by Napp
Whats to negotiate?
The issue that has been a stumbling block all along, the Irish backstop. The Government's position is clear on that.
Original post by z-hog
The issue that has been a stumbling block all along, the Irish backstop. The Government's position is clear on that.
And so has Europes. the Government on the other hand have repeatedly proposed non-deas. like that preposterous rubbish involving AI and other fun forms of tech that dont actually exist.
Either way, BoJo is likely going to be the head of the regime that breaks the UK.
Original post by Napp
And so has Europes. the Government on the other hand have repeatedly proposed non-deas. like that preposterous rubbish involving AI and other fun forms of tech that dont actually exist.
So here we are, if there's no compromise or budging by either party the only way for the UK to leave the EU is without a deal. Then we'll see what the Republic and the EU do about it as it will be their problem. You may think I'm saying that because I am a Brexiteer but you should know that it's from a democratic angle entirely and this is just the way it looks to me.
Unless something happens before it, the UK will be out of the EU by the end of October. What is likely to happen?
(edited 4 years ago)
Original post by z-hog
So here we are, if there's no compromise or budging by either party the only way for the UK to leave the EU is without a deal. Then we'll see what the Republic and the EU do about it as it will be their problem. You may think I'm saying that because I am a Brexiteer but you should know that it's from a democratic angle entirely and this is just the way it looks to me.
Unless something happens before it, the UK will be out of the EU by the end of October. What is likely to happen?
Unless something happens before it, the UK will be out of the EU by the end of October. What is likely to happen?
What has democracy got to do with this? Equally itll be Britains problem more than theres?
Original post by Napp
May didnt negotiate anything though... the team of negotiators did. Same will be true of johnson, especially as he knows nothing about negotiations or policy.
I don't know what point you're trying to make? The EU don't want to renegotiate, but they might well do if faced with a PM (or his/her team of negotiators) willing to walk away without a deal. If they intend to call Johnson's bluff (or genuinely would rather Britain left without a deal than give up a bit more) then proclaiming they won't renegotiate serves that. Whoever is negotiating on behalf of Johnson or May does so under instruction, same way a lawyer or ambassador would.
Original post by ThomH97
I don't know what point you're trying to make? The EU don't want to renegotiate, but they might well do if faced with a PM (or his/her team of negotiators) willing to walk away without a deal. If they intend to call Johnson's bluff (or genuinely would rather Britain left without a deal than give up a bit more) then proclaiming they won't renegotiate serves that. Whoever is negotiating on behalf of Johnson or May does so under instruction, same way a lawyer or ambassador would.
Doubtful... just as Johnson promised to walk away so have the eu and unlike Britain they appear to be prepared for it
I was more referring to the minutiae of the discussions. The negotiators have a mandate from their political overlords yes but aside from that the nitty gritty stuff tends to be done by the civil servants. I mean you wouldn’t expect a politician to know a damn thing about of the details really would you?
Original post by z-hog
So here we are, if there's no compromise or budging by either party the only way for the UK to leave the EU is without a deal. Then we'll see what the Republic and the EU do about it as it will be their problem. You may think I'm saying that because I am a Brexiteer but you should know that it's from a democratic angle entirely and this is just the way it looks to me.
What you haven't mentioned is the Irish-American lobby. Nancy Pelosi has already been making noises this week, but this will span the Republican-Democrat divide in both US chambers.
Unless something happens before it, the UK will be out of the EU by the end of October. What is likely to happen?
The most likely thing to happen is, despite Johnson's statements to the contrary, is a general election called called by him. That is the only thing that keeps him at the centre of events. Everything else involves varying degrees of impotence on his part. There is a clear narrative. He can ask the British people, the age old question:- "who governs Britain?". Obviously the British people might reply, as they did to Ted Heath in 1974, "not you, mate"; but it is a strong question and a way out of this morass. That is the way almost all journalists think he is going to take.
Assume that doesn't happen; Johnson is going to be a bystander. As May and her government realised, Parliamentary democracy is fundamentally Parliamentary majoritarian. Procedural devices to retain power in the face of a lack of a majority of votes will not work. The Commons will pass a VONC to block a No Deal Brexit.
The Parliamentary timetable (dissolution 14 days later; outgoing PM fixing new election date etc) isn't going to bring about an automatic no-deal Brexit by default. Legislation will compel Johnson to seek an extension in terms he is not the master of, or Johnson will be replaced by a favourable caretaker PM, pending an election. Earlier in the year, Brexiteers floated ever more extreme ways of flouting a Parliamentary majority, but everyone other than the most swivel-eyed loons, saw that this didn't work. Rees-Mogg may start to go down that route again, but he will see that very quickly it becomes a coup. Are you really going to want to see TV showing MPs refusing to admit Black Rod to their chamber to attend the Lords Commissioners.
Neither is Corbyn going to come to the rescue of Johnson, by refusing to do anything to prevent an automatic no-deal Brexit following a VONC. Corbyn needs Johnson to own a disorderly no-deal Brexit, and in this scenario, there would be every chance that blame would be pinned on Corbyn. No Labour figure, no matter how dense, is going to fall for that one.
It is possible that Johnson will seek a Brexit extension himself. However, after the last week, I don't see it. Nothing in the mood music from either London or Brussels suggests a deal is being stitched up or is likely to be stitched up. The obvious deal is one that scraps every word of May's deal but is identical in substance. That requires all participants to play the game of pretending the deals are not identical (call it the HC Anderson Treaty) and for no-one to rub the noses of the other side in it. There doesn't seem to be any level of trust to achieve that.
Without a deal in preparation, why should the EU give Johnson an extension when they know that if they refuse it, the Commons will either decapitate him or take him prisoner.
The EU will undoubtedly give an extension for a Johnson-called General Election. Again, the suggestion floated in the last few days that somehow Johnson will be able to call an election whilst bringing about a no-deal Brexit during the campaign is just another version of attempting to use procedural rules to flout a Parliamentary majority and won't succeed.
What has rarely been mentioned so far is the anti-Brexit nuclear weapon, that the EU possesses. Let us say, by ****-up or otherwise, we get into a situation where the UK has an automatic no-deal Brexit on 31st October in the middle of a general election campaign or change of government or whatever. Administrative chaos will result (we needn't argue about whether that means people dying in the streets or a 30 minute delay on Eurostar). However, once a new government opposed to a no-deal Brexit is in office; the EU and that government simply agree Brexit never happened. In a year or so, the European Court will back that view. The nuclear weapon buried deep in the heart of Article 50 is that our departure has to be in accordance with UK Constitutional Arrangements; so if everyone who matters, UK Government, European Court, Council of Minister and Commission agree it wasn't, then Brexit never happened.
(edited 4 years ago)
Original post by ChrisChristian
A clown as a Prime minister
Clowns are funny and have attention to detail of their act. Mr Johnson is not.
Original post by nulli tertius
What you haven't mentioned is the Irish-American lobby. Nancy Pelosi has already been making noises this week, but this will span the Republican-Democrat divide in both US chambers.
The most likely thing to happen is, despite Johnson's statements to the contrary, is a general election called called by him. That is the only thing that keeps him at the centre of events. Everything else involves varying degrees of impotence on his part. There is a clear narrative. He can ask the British people, the age old question:- "who governs Britain?". Obviously the British people might reply, as they did to Ted Heath in 1974, "not you, mate"; but it is a strong question and a way out of this morass. That is the way almost all journalists think he is going to take.
Assume that doesn't happen; Johnson is going to be a bystander. As May and her government realised, Parliamentary democracy is fundamentally Parliamentary majoritarian. Procedural devices to retain power in the face of a lack of a majority of votes will not work. The Commons will pass a VONC to block a No Deal Brexit.
The Parliamentary timetable (dissolution 14 days later; outgoing PM fixing new election date etc) isn't going to bring about an automatic no-deal Brexit by default. Legislation will compel Johnson to seek an extension in terms he is not the master of, or Johnson will be replaced by a favourable caretaker PM, pending an election. Earlier in the year, Brexiteers floated ever more extreme ways of flouting a Parliamentary majority, but everyone other than the most swivel-eyed loons, saw that this didn't work. Rees-Mogg may start to go down that route again, but he will see that very quickly it becomes a coup. Are you really going to want to see TV showing MPs refusing to admit Black Rod to their chamber to attend the Lords Commissioners.
Neither is Corbyn going to come to the rescue of Johnson, by refusing to do anything to prevent an automatic no-deal Brexit following a VONC. Corbyn needs Johnson to own a disorderly no-deal Brexit, and in this scenario, there would be every chance that blame would be pinned on Corbyn. No Labour figure, no matter how dense, is going to fall for that one.
It is possible that Johnson will seek a Brexit extension himself. However, after the last week, I don't see it. Nothing in the mood music from either London or Brussels suggests a deal is being stitched up or is likely to be stitched up. The obvious deal is one that scraps every word of May's deal but is identical in substance. That requires all participants to play the game of pretending the deals are not identical (call it the HC Anderson Treaty) and for no-one to rub the noses of the other side in it. There doesn't seem to be any level of trust to achieve that.
Without a deal in preparation, why should the EU give Johnson an extension when they know that if they refuse it, the Commons will either decapitate him or take him prisoner.
The EU will undoubtedly give an extension for a Johnson-called General Election. Again, the suggestion floated in the last few days that somehow Johnson will be able to call an election whilst bringing about a no-deal Brexit during the campaign is just another version of attempting to use procedural rules to flout a Parliamentary majority and won't succeed.
What has rarely been mentioned so far is the anti-Brexit nuclear weapon, that the EU possesses. Let us say, by ****-up or otherwise, we get into a situation where the UK has an automatic no-deal Brexit on 31st October in the middle of a general election campaign or change of government or whatever. Administrative chaos will result (we needn't argue about whether that means people dying in the streets or a 30 minute delay on Eurostar). However, once a new government opposed to a no-deal Brexit is in office; the EU and that government simply agree Brexit never happened. In a year or so, the European Court will back that view. The nuclear weapon buried deep in the heart of Article 50 is that our departure has to be in accordance with UK Constitutional Arrangements; so if everyone who matters, UK Government, European Court, Council of Minister and Commission agree it wasn't, then Brexit never happened.
The most likely thing to happen is, despite Johnson's statements to the contrary, is a general election called called by him. That is the only thing that keeps him at the centre of events. Everything else involves varying degrees of impotence on his part. There is a clear narrative. He can ask the British people, the age old question:- "who governs Britain?". Obviously the British people might reply, as they did to Ted Heath in 1974, "not you, mate"; but it is a strong question and a way out of this morass. That is the way almost all journalists think he is going to take.
Assume that doesn't happen; Johnson is going to be a bystander. As May and her government realised, Parliamentary democracy is fundamentally Parliamentary majoritarian. Procedural devices to retain power in the face of a lack of a majority of votes will not work. The Commons will pass a VONC to block a No Deal Brexit.
The Parliamentary timetable (dissolution 14 days later; outgoing PM fixing new election date etc) isn't going to bring about an automatic no-deal Brexit by default. Legislation will compel Johnson to seek an extension in terms he is not the master of, or Johnson will be replaced by a favourable caretaker PM, pending an election. Earlier in the year, Brexiteers floated ever more extreme ways of flouting a Parliamentary majority, but everyone other than the most swivel-eyed loons, saw that this didn't work. Rees-Mogg may start to go down that route again, but he will see that very quickly it becomes a coup. Are you really going to want to see TV showing MPs refusing to admit Black Rod to their chamber to attend the Lords Commissioners.
Neither is Corbyn going to come to the rescue of Johnson, by refusing to do anything to prevent an automatic no-deal Brexit following a VONC. Corbyn needs Johnson to own a disorderly no-deal Brexit, and in this scenario, there would be every chance that blame would be pinned on Corbyn. No Labour figure, no matter how dense, is going to fall for that one.
It is possible that Johnson will seek a Brexit extension himself. However, after the last week, I don't see it. Nothing in the mood music from either London or Brussels suggests a deal is being stitched up or is likely to be stitched up. The obvious deal is one that scraps every word of May's deal but is identical in substance. That requires all participants to play the game of pretending the deals are not identical (call it the HC Anderson Treaty) and for no-one to rub the noses of the other side in it. There doesn't seem to be any level of trust to achieve that.
Without a deal in preparation, why should the EU give Johnson an extension when they know that if they refuse it, the Commons will either decapitate him or take him prisoner.
The EU will undoubtedly give an extension for a Johnson-called General Election. Again, the suggestion floated in the last few days that somehow Johnson will be able to call an election whilst bringing about a no-deal Brexit during the campaign is just another version of attempting to use procedural rules to flout a Parliamentary majority and won't succeed.
What has rarely been mentioned so far is the anti-Brexit nuclear weapon, that the EU possesses. Let us say, by ****-up or otherwise, we get into a situation where the UK has an automatic no-deal Brexit on 31st October in the middle of a general election campaign or change of government or whatever. Administrative chaos will result (we needn't argue about whether that means people dying in the streets or a 30 minute delay on Eurostar). However, once a new government opposed to a no-deal Brexit is in office; the EU and that government simply agree Brexit never happened. In a year or so, the European Court will back that view. The nuclear weapon buried deep in the heart of Article 50 is that our departure has to be in accordance with UK Constitutional Arrangements; so if everyone who matters, UK Government, European Court, Council of Minister and Commission agree it wasn't, then Brexit never happened.
Yes, if a new anti-Brexit government came in, the legislative frameworks definitely exist to simply dump A50.
Actually I can see this happening now, because the Brexit Party are sure to take at least some of the Tory vote away (and more Tory voters are likely to go to Brexit than Labour voters, although if the latter in the rustbelt and coastal regions are annoyed enough, they might tip Brexit in some numbers), the LibDems are looking resurgent in SW Britain (I think we should view those seats that Cameron won back from the LDP south of the M4 and west of the M3 as temporarily loaned - the LibDems are still strong in many of those areas and haven't gone away) - which creates a scenario of a possible Lab/SNP/LibDem coalition. Such a coalition might not be possible with Corbyn as leader, which is the true stumbling block - but if Labour faced reality - 5 years of Boris ********, or bust - then they might at last find some cajones and ditch Jezza for Keir. Dumping A50 would be justifiable then, although of course it would still be accompanied by a great deal of Farage-driven trouble making and ERG-driven disruption attempts.
One thing to think about is that Boris has a 5K majority in a seat that whilst not exactly in the heartland of LibDemmery, is sufficiently close to it to be worrying.
The Tories are well aware of the above threat, hence all the current pandering to the Midlands, North, etc. Re-announcing old announcements about HS3, new hospitals, etc. I wonder how many more times before the election in October they will announce the Northern Powerhouse?
Original post by limetang
No deal is a big problem for both sides. I think even if it happens you will very quickly see emergency deals and legislation put in place to ensure smooth running of things.
Pragmatism will eventually win our. Neither the EU not the UK want to he the side that will put a border in Ireland (not that you really effectively could), so there won’t be one.
UK citizens in the EU and Vice Verda won’t suddenly be deported.
The UK won’t introduce checks on its side of the border at Dover because (and vice Versa).
I could be wrong but pragmatism usually wins.
Pragmatism will eventually win our. Neither the EU not the UK want to he the side that will put a border in Ireland (not that you really effectively could), so there won’t be one.
UK citizens in the EU and Vice Verda won’t suddenly be deported.
The UK won’t introduce checks on its side of the border at Dover because (and vice Versa).
I could be wrong but pragmatism usually wins.
This seems to be the reason for the complacency; we've become so accustomed to the idea that cool heads will always prevail and the UK being led by thoughtful, pragmatic leaders has allowed the UK to 'muddle through' all kinds of crises because pragmatism has always been their default position, but we just have no frame of reference for what happens when the country is taken over by extremists who don't think in those terms.
The problem is that for the first time in anybody's living memory, all power in the country has fallen into the hands of a tiny, powerful extremist group. who have finally installed their demagogue into the top spot in government, and just like true zealots, they value their ideology over pragmatism. There may be many people who want a compromise, but if those who have siezed power aren't in the mood for it then it's very unlikely to happen -- it's just not in their interests.
On the opposition benches things aren't much better; far from a calm, moderate centrist party pushing back by acting as the voice of reason to cool things down and seek a middle-ground consensus, there's another minority of extremists leading the opposition party.
The problem with extremists is that they can't govern by consensus nor build a majority, they can only govern by keeping people divided. While it might appear at first that the opposite to "hard right" is "hard left", the true enemy of both the hard-right and hard-left is a party which can build a genuine centrist majority against their extreme ideas because that's where they lose all credibility.
It's this which means that even when there's a pragmatic solution available, they're unlikely to accept it because any compromise undermines their position in power and risks building a unified majority against them. Both the government and the opposition are now so ideologically opposed to each other that they will not accept anything which feels like a shift towards the other's position, and both have a lot to lose if a centrist/moderate party starts to build up a lot of significant support. If anything, they are more likely to adopt a position which intentionally antagonises the other side to push them away from the centre. (This is pretty much what politics in the US looks like right now too, although luckily when it comes to the next general election, the UK has more than two serious political parties)
In any case, the UK is in unchartered waters right now; we've taken strong, moderate, centrist leadership for granted for many decades; despite the fact that Labour/Tory have always been opposed to each other, the reality has generally been that the party in power has needed to stick to the centre-ground or be wiped out in the next general election. That has meant the UK has enjoyed levels of political stability rarely seen in most countries, which has allowed the UK to navigate through a lot of difficult times relatively unscathed, but I don't think we can rely on that this time because neither of the two main parties sees any need to shift towards a centrist position letalone consider any kind of compromises.
(edited 4 years ago)
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