Could the Lib Dem’s ever win an election?

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Could the Lib Dem’s ever form a government would it be possible?

Original post by DeesideEwan

Could the Lib Dem’s ever form a government would it be possible?

The Lib Dems were in the government as part of the Coalition from 2010 to 2015.

I don't think they'll ever win a General Election though, at least not under FPTP. For a great many people, the risk of either Labour or Tory getting in is too high, hence they'll vote vote tactically for the other one.

Reply 2

londonmyst

19

If they effectively unite all the UK opposition to Brexit and emerge as the official party to lead 'Remain'- yes.
But I doubt that the new Lib Dem leader will be able to present a conciliatory demeanor or establish sufficient dialogue with all the cross party factions opposed to Brexit.

Both the government & opposition face significant internal and external challenges unrelated to Brexit that could decimate their leadership appeal, render their parties unattractive to the electorate or leave them vulnerable to 'no confidence motions'.
Highly responsive smaller parties have the potential to make significant gains at the expense of Labour and the Conservatives- as the Brexit Party has already demonstrated.

Reply 3

Andrew97

20

The best they can hope for is to be Kingmakers.

Reply 4

username1799249

19

If Brexit is the sh1t storm everyone is predicting everything is up for grabs. The Tories have shown their true colours (again) recently and Labour seem rudderless lurching from one crisis to the next.

Reply 5

Original post by DeesideEwan

Could the Lib Dem’s ever form a government would it be possible?

It is difficult to see them winning without coming second at the previous election.

Their highest ever polling since universal suffrage was 25.4% or 7,794,770 in 1983. They finished only 2.2% behind Labour. At a time when constituencies were more tribal than today, that only translated into 23 seats as against 209 for Labour.

If they had polled 2.3% more, the Conservative Government might have had to concede electoral reform of some form. Occasional elections where the "loser" gains most votes is one thing; a complete mismatch between votes and seats would have been something else. I don't think it would have been proportional representation as that might put the Liberals into being the permanent arbiter of the election; but something would have to have been done.

With lower turnouts in modern elections 25.4% would have been 8,179,847 votes in 2017. The Conservatives have never polled as low as that in second place, but they came close in 2001 and 2005.

However if you want to look what can happen to a party, look at the 1983 Canadian election. The PM Kim Campbell of the Progressive Conservatives went in with 156 seats in a 295 seat House of Commons. She came out of the election with 2.

(edited 4 years ago)

Reply 6

Drewski

19

In theory; yes.
In reality; no.

Reply 7

NotNotBatman

20

I don't think their parties ideology is convincing for people. They want to stop Brexit. Brexiteers obviously won't like it, and soft remainers won't like it unless they give sufficient reason to. For a soft remainer there'll be a fear of "what else will they ignore the majority on?"

Now that they have a leader who has a history of being pro austerity and voted to increase tuition fees even the strong left winged remainers wouldn't want her.

Also people tend to blacklist a party which they believe has done something detrimental in recent years, so if there's s lib dem government it won't be anytime soon.

Reply 8

Original post by NotNotBatman

I don't think their parties ideology is convincing for people. They want to stop Brexit. Brexiteers obviously won't like it, and soft remainers won't like it unless they give sufficient reason to. For a soft remainer there'll be a fear of "what else will they ignore the majority on?"

Now that they have a leader who has a history of being pro austerity and voted to increase tuition fees even the strong left winged remainers wouldn't want her.

Also people tend to blacklist a party which they believe has done something detrimental in recent years, so if there's s lib dem government it won't be anytime soon.

It is probably fair to treat the leader as representing the party in the case of the modern Lib Dems, contrary to the position of 25 years ago when the Lib Dems were an association of individuals who campaigned on their own personal merits.

However, the flaw in your reasoning is that voters have a choice between the parties which exist or staying at home.

The soft remainer in an English seat has the choice of the hard Brexiteer poseur Johnson, the hard Brexiteer Farage, the Brexiteer pretending to be a Remainer Corbyn, waste the vote on a Green, vote for Swinson's candidate or stay at home. There aren't any other realistic choices. Assembling reasons to vote against the Lib Dems in isolation is unrealistic. That doesn't mean someone is going to vote Lib Dem but they are inevitably in the mix for anyone who is not committed to either Johnson or Corbyn's beliefs.

Reply 9

tenacity

13

Opposing any rise in tuition fees wasn't just another broken promise. It was breaking their flagship policy without any necessity to do so, after every single one of their MPs was photographed with signed pledges, and a party campaign characterised by attacking the undelivered committments of other parties.

They were rightly destroyed in 2015 and can only hope to be junior partners in a coalition in the future. They should have the good sense not to.

(edited 4 years ago)

Reply 10

Alt Tankie

8

Those radical lib dem policies in full

-A referendum on leaving the EU and stay in regardless of the vote.
-legalise pot dude
-let in more immigration and wonder why there’s not enough housing and low wages.
-spend some more money on wind turbines
-keep everything as it is and call any change to the status quo as extremist.
-tackle furry phobia and allow furries into the workplace.
-have a satanic orgy in the House of Commons
-blow up the moon and bring about the apocalypse. The anti christ will rip itself out of Jo Swinsons womb and declare that the forces of Satan are ‘winning here’ and will pierce a Lib Dem rosette through prince williams quivering body.

No, they can't.

Original post by DeesideEwan

Could the Lib Dem’s ever form a government would it be possible?

The simple answer is not any time soon.

The greatest issue they face is that the thing that people vote for first is the economy which means that for all the center ground whaffle, their is little real appetite for economic centrism. They either need to become the 05 social democrats or go full square for classical liberalism. One of their worst decisions in the 2015 election was not following through and going for the soft right.

Reply 13

Alt Tankie

8

Original post by Rakas21

The simple answer is not any time soon.

The greatest issue they face is that the thing that people vote for first is the economy which means that for all the center ground whaffle, their is little real appetite for economic centrism. They either need to become the 05 social democrats or go full square for classical liberalism. One of their worst decisions in the 2015 election was not following through and going for the soft right.

Brexit wasn’t about the economy and arguably neither was the 2017 election either.,

Generally elections are indeed fought on the issue of the economy and it is still highly important but I think we are also seeing a pivot to a focus on more social values. Esp in Europe and US. This is because of the change in ethnic and cultural homogeneity of white Christians being eroded.

The U.K. may have nipped this in the bus with semi populists like Corbyn and Boris who both support mass migration but this could return esp if Brexit doesn’t play out well.

Reply 14

helloman1

12

Original post by DeesideEwan

Could the Lib Dem’s ever form a government would it be possible?

They would have to win seats like Cardiff Central, Redcar, Hornsey, Wood Greed off Labour and Birmingham Yardley . Ross Skye and Lochaber (Ian Blackford's seat leader of the SNP in the HOC), North East Fife off the SNP. They would have to win St Ives, Brecon and Radnorshire, Solihull, Richmond Park, Berwick Upon Tweed, Wells, Lewes and Witney off the Conservatives. In terms of swing it will have to be pretty large. At the next election I reckon they will get 110 seats if they are lucky.

Reply 15

ColinDent

Original post by helloman1

They would have to win seats like Cardiff Central, Redcar, Hornsey, Wood Greed off Labour and Birmingham Yardley . Ross Skye and Lochaber (Ian Blackford's seat leader of the SNP in the HOC), North East Fife off the SNP. They would have to win St Ives, Brecon and Radnorshire, Solihull, Richmond Park, Berwick Upon Tweed, Wells, Lewes and Witney off the Conservatives. In terms of swing it will have to be pretty large. At the next election I reckon they will get 110 seats if they are lucky.

110 seats is hugely optimistic, I'd say 30-40 max

Reply 16

Original post by ColinDent

110 seats is hugely optimistic, I'd say 30-40 max

There is a tipping point, which once you exceed it, it produces many more seats. The SNP achieved it in 2015. I don't think the Lib Dems are there.

(edited 4 years ago)

Reply 17

ColinDent

Original post by nulli tertius

There is a tipping point, which once you exceed it, it produces many more seats. The SNP achieved it in 2015. I don't think the Lib Dems are there.

No they are way short of what they need for those sort of gains, I wouldn't be at all surprised if The Brexit Party gained more seats than the Lib Dems in any election that preceded our leaving of the EU.

Reply 18

Original post by ColinDent

No they are way short of what they need for those sort of gains, I wouldn't be at all surprised if The Brexit Party gained more seats than the Lib Dems in any election that preceded our leaving of the EU.

In that situation, the Brexit Party will gain votes but not seats. Really, their only chance of a seat is for a scandal to befall a Tory sitting MP in a strong leaver seat during the campaign. It might have been different with May but the problem is that too many Brexit supporters are so emotionally invested in Boris to desert him, even if he betrays them.

Reply 19

ColinDent