New opposition plan to legislate on Brexit

What you have chosen not to add is that many of those Tory MP's have stated they would still back the Tories in a Monc and that Corbyn has had to all but capitulate on that prospect.

But yes, i think there is a strong chance that the bill to extend passes on the 9th and that as a result Boris calls an election for the 24th.

It was interesting to note that amongst others, the new anti-HB coalition has identified 116 Tory members who have at some point or other previously voted in ways that suggest they do not support an HB. If mobilised, they would be decisive - we'll see.

I agree, I think the coalition bill will pass and therefore BJ will call a General - I suspect this will have to be in early Oct now.

Do you think that in the circumstance if an early GE, it's pretty much inevitable that an extension to A50 will also have to be sought? The EU would surely grant it under those conditions.

One of two things happen: Bercow changes the rules to allow them to revoke article 50 (requiring some way to do it without a majority, mind), or Brexit happens. There is no option in the middle. Demand an extension? It will be ignored. No confidence? If it passes we get a post brexit election.

This also isn't really news, they did the same thing 6 months ago so you would have to be pretty special to think they wouldn't try it now, especially when the alternative is a VonC which would either fail or lead to a post brexit GE as Corbyn is too stubborn to allow anybody else to be PM, and nobody else wants him to be PM.

The adults are coming back after the hols.

Serious politicians are very unlikely to take us into dangerous constitutional waters.

We are not going to get a prorogation. We aren't going to get a refusal of Royal Assent. We aren't going to get a refusal to resign in the face of a caretaker government with an actual majority. We aren't going to get a dissolution and election campaign spanning a No Deal Brexit.

What might we get?

The likeliest outcome is that Boris strikes a deal that doesn't pass the Commons. Boris seeks a pre-October 31 general election which Corbyn facilitates, perhaps with assurances of an Article 50 extension if the election is inconclusive.

Slightly less likely is Boris striking a deal that does pass the Commons in which case Boris would seek a late Autumn election.

If Boris fails to strike a deal; a Bill requiring Boris to seek an extension will have a clear majority in the Commons. Boris will prevent it becoming law by again calling a pre-October 31 election with Corbyn's support.

If the politics goes really wrong and we are looking at a crash out; there would be a VoNC with Corbyn supporting Clarke.

Qfa

Qfa

Boris has just sprung the trap.

News is now breaking that the Queen will prologue parliament on the 9th for a Queens Speech on the 14th.

This does a few brilliant things..

1) The remain alliance has been robbed of their chance to take the order paper on the 9th

2) The remain alliance has been robbed of their chance to stop the conference recess

3) The remain alliance may well have been robbed of their chance to change the order paper at all if no bills are brought before parliament in the 14th-31st period and to extend technically requires 2 weeks notice for a summit

..

This is important because..

1) There is unlikely to be a majority to revoke late. As highlighted before, a large number of Tory and Labour remainers are cowards who will not put blood on their own hands.

2) By robbing the remain alliance of the chance to use legislation, they are effectively forcing Corbyn to call a MoNC next week, to force Tory remainers to choose him or Corbyn.

In effect, the battle will be won or lost next week.

Cumming's really is impressive if this was the idea. Most people were fearing a much later prologue through the 31st.

Boris has just sprung the trap.

News is now breaking that the Queen will prologue parliament on the 9th for a Queens Speech on the 14th.

This does a few brilliant things..

Do you know how long the prorogation would last? Can’t MPs have emergency debates and expedite the process?

It is a prerogative power so theoretically nobody can amend the date. The courts also can't reasonably stop it because parliament returns pre-Brexit (its not their job to make the life of remainers easy when they are outplayed).

Parliament would be prorouged on Monday 9th (so Corbyn has 3rd-6th for his MoNC) and return for a Queens Speech on 17th. Queens speech then has 5 sitting days before the vote (which even Tory remainers are unlikely to oppose if they have backed Boris in the monc) which takes us to the 24th.

From there the government just wont put anything before parliament for a week to stop remainers using legislation unless Merkel gives Boris what he wants at the EU summit on the 17th in which case Labour will be told to back his deal or they leave in a week with No Deal.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49493632

Her Majesty the Queen is acting by the Grace of God.... it says so on your coins if you care to check. She has the authority to suspend parliament and allow the Will of the People to be carried out.

It is a prerogative power so theoretically nobody can amend the date. The courts also can't reasonably stop it because parliament returns pre-Brexit (its not their job to make the life of remainers easy when they are outplayed).

Parliament would be prorouged on Monday 9th (so Corbyn has 3rd-6th for his MoNC) and return for a Queens Speech on 17th. Queens speech then has 5 sitting days before the vote (which even Tory remainers are unlikely to oppose if they have backed Boris in the monc) which takes us to the 24th.

From there the government just wont put anything before parliament for a week to stop remainers using legislation unless Merkel gives Boris what he wants at the EU summit on the 17th in which case Labour will be told to back his deal or they leave in a week with No Deal.

Wow, Cummings is truly clever. I think this puts Tory MPs in a quagmire, put your Party first or put your values first and vote for your political demise.

I don't think Tory MPs would want to see Corbyn as a replacement to Boris Johnson. However, Dominic Grieve has publicly stated that he would vote against the Govt in a VoNC.

If Johnson can pull this off then he would truly become the Churchill of our times.

That's the gift to the Remainers.

Both the Commons and the Lords have the right to debate any matter they want in priority to the Queen's Speech.

https://churchinparliament.org/2014/06/03/the-select-vestries-bill/

It gets even better. Thanks to people being thick before the summer, if Boris is Monc'd next week then the 14 day period runs past the 13th which means that automatically an election would occur but after the 1st (an election in which he would be able to tell the Brx Party, this non-Tory parliament is the enemy of Brexit).

That means that even if Corbyn moved on day 1 next Tuesday, he must form a majority government within 10 days or likely lose the chance to stop no deal.

But can they vote on it?

They need an opportunitity to use a hard bill.