Brexit has not even happened yet and thousand of jobs have gone

Original post by Jammy Duel

And it's pointless trying to explain reality to those who believe it the economic reality is deep recession, not least because the beliefs are based on fundamentally the same forecasts made 3 years ago (the ones which said there'd be half a million jobs lost and a 2 year recession simply by voting to leave)

You seem to be very out-of-date with your information. A treasury analysis was published in November 2018 which assesses the long-term economic outlook for various scenarios including No Deal. The forecast for No Deal is that the UK economy will be 9.3% smaller:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/760484/28_November_EU_Exit_-_Long-term_economic_analysis__1_.pdf

Summarised here by the BBC: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46366162

Reply 23

SteveyStack

17

Original post by winterscoming

You seem to be very out-of-date with your information. A treasury analysis was published in November 2018 which assesses the long-term economic outlook for various scenarios including No Deal. The forecast for No Deal is that the UK economy will be 9.3% smaller:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/760484/28_November_EU_Exit_-_Long-term_economic_analysis__1_.pdf

Summarised here by the BBC: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46366162

Even the governments best models don’t have a clue.

Supposedly the best they have predicts 30% of what happens and they will have to guess from there.

Reply 24

Rakas21

Original post by winterscoming

You seem to be very out-of-date with your information. A treasury analysis was published in November 2018 which assesses the long-term economic outlook for various scenarios including No Deal. The forecast for No Deal is that the UK economy will be 9.3% smaller:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/760484/28_November_EU_Exit_-_Long-term_economic_analysis__1_.pdf

Summarised here by the BBC: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46366162

That’s actually the lower end of their range and from a Chancellor who opposes Brexit. It’s also not forecasting a 9.3% contraction I should add, it’s relative to forecast growth.

The OBR however (independent of government) has forecast an impact of more like 4% with a 2% contraction next year and growth returning in 2021.

Reply 25

Original post by SteveyStack

Even the governments best models don’t have a clue.

Supposedly the best they have predicts 30% of what happens and they will have to guess from there.

The report above from the UK government is only one of many conducted by economists around the world. There are others which have been undertaken to assess the impact of different forms of Brexit.
For example: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.31.4.163

In short, there is overwhelming almost-unanimous agreement among economists (something which happens quite infrequently on most topics) that it's going to damage the UK economy. Unless perhaps you'd like to offer some other reliable and credible evidence or analysis which suggests otherwise?

Reply 26

Rakas21

Original post by winterscoming

The report above from the UK government is only one of many conducted by economists around the world. There are others which have been undertaken to assess the impact of different forms of Brexit.
For example: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.31.4.163

In short, there is overwhelming almost-unanimous agreement among economists (something which happens quite infrequently on most topics) that it's going to damage the UK economy. Unless perhaps you'd like to offer some other reliable and credible evidence or analysis which suggests otherwise?

Most people are reasonable enough to accept that there will be a short term hit. It is simply the judgement of those like me that in the long run sovereignty is worth it.

Reply 27

SteveyStack

17

Original post by winterscoming

The report above from the UK government is only one of many conducted by economists around the world. There are others which have been undertaken to assess the impact of different forms of Brexit.
For example: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.31.4.163

In short, there is overwhelming almost-unanimous agreement among economists (something which happens quite infrequently on most topics) that it's going to damage the UK economy. Unless perhaps you'd like to offer some other reliable and credible evidence or analysis which suggests otherwise?

What I’m saying is no one really knows! I’m not saying that evidence doesn’t suggest this what I’m saying is even the best evidence doesn’t know it’s taking an educated guess. The governments model is about the best out there as well

Reply 28

Burton Bridge

15

Original post by Rakas21

Most people are reasonable enough to accept that there will be a short term hit. It is simply the judgement of those like me that in the long run sovereignty is worth it.

As anyone who has read my posts knows I'm very pro brexit, a passionate socialist and endorser of a big state with group responsibility. I'm going to make a point which could come a surprise but bear with me.

Firstly I agree with you that the majority of brexiteers feel there will be short term pain, any move of such huge magnitude is almost impossible not too. When we joined we went into ressession months after, a statistic remainers never seem to quote...

Secondly, this is the strange one, the talk of sovereignty is a little of a fallacious argument similar to the remainers economic security BS arugement. Why because unless we are going we rip up all international laws and become a rouge country, we will never be 100% totally sovereign. The problem with the EU is its become a frankinstien, and thus is totally unrecognisable to the EEC we joined in 1973, our membership is half in half out anyway.

I guess what I'm saying is for me as a brexiteer, a different one to yourself, the EU is simply not fit for purpose, it's more than a trading block, its controlling political union with a unpleasant free market capitalism that is crippling many in the country, and is largely unanswerable to the British electorate regards it directional compass. I think your reasons for disliking the EU will be drastically different

Reply 29

Rakas21

Original post by Burton Bridge

As anyone who has read my posts knows I'm very pro brexit, a passionate socialist and endorser of a big state with group responsibility. I'm going to make a point which could come a surprise but bear with me.

Firstly I agree with you that the majority of brexiteers feel there will be short term pain, any move of such huge magnitude is almost impossible not too. When we joined we went into ressession months after, a statistic remainers never seem to quote...

Secondly, this is the strange one, the talk of sovereignty is a little of a fallacious argument similar to the remainers economic security BS arugement. Why because unless we are going we rip up all international laws and become a rouge country, we will never be 100% totally sovereign. The problem with the EU is its become a frankinstien, and thus is totally unrecognisable to the EEC we joined in 1973, our membership is half in half out anyway.

I guess what I'm saying is for me as a brexiteer, a different one to yourself, the EU is simply not fit for purpose, it's more than a trading block, its controlling political union with a unpleasant free market capitalism that is crippling many in the country, and is largely unanswerable to the British electorate regards it directional compass. I think your reasons for disliking the EU will be drastically different

For me I was historically a full Europhile as recently as 2014 largely because I was only concerned with power projection (big trading block, more potential influence) and not especially opposed to future federalism so I guess I was American in my views of state vs nation (I have always had a nationalist streak but being part of the EU did not bother me).

My journey to becoming Euro-skeptic occurred over 2015 as a result of a few things..

1) While the UK gets its way more often than people think on issues like trade and the Single market I read a lot of stuff which highlighted that it was possible to wield greater trade influence alone, the protectionism of France, Italy and Spain means that actually Switzerland have several superior trade agreements. This added to my existing dislike of CAP (a subsidy junkie programme) and generally high external tariffs.

2) Although I have never been bothered with high immigration levels the attitude from Germany and the EU utterly horrified me. Not only did it become clear that the EU has no common immigration policy and little desire to protect its borders but a member state was able to unilaterally invite more than a million third worlders (in 2020 they will be able to attain citizenship and leave for the UK should they wish). To compound that horrific act of cultural destruction they then did something even worse.. Germany attempted to use EU means to enforce third world quotas on Eastern Europe! From being something of a political giant to me, Merkel turned villain.

3) As the referendum got closer and my opinion was much more neutral I actually read the treasury and IMF executive summaries and forecasts. While they did suggest a recession was possible, in the long run they actually (and it’s backed by recent forecasts) suggest that the impact will be less than 0.5% GDP per annum. That for me is perfectly copable

4) With the point above having neutralised the economy I was able to consider some of my previously smaller niggles. Firstly I have never considered myself European, my affiliation was always politically advantageous in my mind. Secondly (and the biggest reason I am euro-skeptic) I have always considered European law or directives foreign, I find the idea that we are ultimately subject to the rulings of a foreign court to be offensive. In essence, my nationalist streak was set free.

Reply 30

Greywolf.

22

Original post by Jammy Duel

And it's pointless trying to explain reality to those who believe it the economic reality is deep recession, not least because the beliefs are based on fundamentally the same forecasts made 3 years ago (the ones which said there'd be half a million jobs lost and a 2 year recession simply by voting to leave)

The end is nigh!!

Reply 31

Original post by SteveyStack

What I’m saying is no one really knows! I’m not saying that evidence doesn’t suggest this what I’m saying is even the best evidence doesn’t know it’s taking an educated guess. The governments model is about the best out there as well

No, it's based on mathematics, using statistical analysis of hard real-world data about economic trade between the UK and EU, combined with known concrete facts such as the costs of adding tariffs to imports and exports as mandated by WTO rules, as well as knowing what the increased costs will be of adding non-tariff barriers (e.g. the cost of added paperwork and the cost of disruption due to longer waits at ports, the loss of trade in services due to the loss of privileges that allow UK companies to sell directly into the EU market, etc).

So, in short, not an educated guess as you suggest, but using all the available data and statistical methods to compare the economic effect of UK trade with the EU based on its current agreement, compared with the economic effect of UK trade with the EU under WTO rules.

Other economists have used different data and different methods of analysis, yet all reach the same conclusions that WTO rules will cause significant long-term damage to the UK economy. Unless you can point out anything significantly wrong with either the source data or the particular methods of statistical analysis used, then it can be taken as being both reliable and credible, and therefore treated as a sound basis upon which to make informed decisions.

(edited 4 years ago)

Reply 32

Original post by Rakas21

Most people are reasonable enough to accept that there will be a short term hit. It is simply the judgement of those like me that in the long run sovereignty is worth it.

That government document is a long-term analysis, showing the UK relatively worse-off after 15 years. But there are other studies aside from those conducted by the UK Government and all coming to much the same conclusion; almost unanimous agreement by economists around the world which conclude that the WTO rules will have a long-term negative effect on the UK economy when compared with the UK's current trading relationship.

Could I ask what the basis of your judgement is? So far I haven't seen any credible or reliable evidence at all to suggest that the UK has anything whatsoever to gain. While the concept of sovereignty may sound nice on paper, nobody seems to be able to spell out what tangible real-world benefits there are which actually affect real people. The UK's relationship with the EU is almost entirely about trade and international cooperation (the EU doesn't have any control over UK domestic policy), so the issues at hand are things which will be affected by loss/disruption to trade caused by new barriers; things like like employment prospects, salary, working conditions, cost of living, the treasury's ability to pay for public services, interest rates for mortgage holders and first-time buyers, etc.

The important question that I haven't ever seen answered is what tangible benefits ordinary people and businesses in the UK gain from the UK being outside of the EU? We already know that the current arrangement brings a lot of advantages in terms of facilitating trade which supports hundreds of thousands of businesses and millions of jobs, which in-turn has benefits to the treasury in terms of tax revenue to pay for public services, and we know that GDP is the most reliable figure that we have to determine how well-off people are. All reliable and credible economic analysis I've seen so far shows a long-term hit to the economy and increased costs for businesses, which generally indicates a negative effect on all of those things. So, if not any of those, then what are the actual benefits to people?

Related to this topic, an interesting article which seems even more relevant now than when it was written: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10052646/Quitting-the-EU-wont-solve-our-problems-says-Boris-Johnson.html

(edited 4 years ago)

Reply 33

mgi

Original post by SteveyStack

Well I suppose but the vast majority of those on 0 hours get a large number of hours most weeks, the issue being there are some where you get next to none.

Also, would you rather people don’t have jobs or that they work in these roles?

Zero hours contracts are not something people should feel grateful for. Have you not read about the increasing use of foodbanks by working people?

Reply 34

Jammy Duel

Original post by winterscoming

You seem to be very out-of-date with your information. A treasury analysis was published in November 2018 which assesses the long-term economic outlook for various scenarios including No Deal. The forecast for No Deal is that the UK economy will be 9.3% smaller:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/760484/28_November_EU_Exit_-_Long-term_economic_analysis__1_.pdf

Summarised here by the BBC: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46366162

And when you look at that assessment and the assumptions behind it, along with the conclusions, they are remarkably similar to those thrown out 3 years ago before the referendum. That 9.3%, for instance, is based on the assumption that net migration from Europe is zero and not compensated for from the rest of the world, which is a laughable assumption, that is also nominal GDP with the figure dropping by an eight simply by shifting it to per capita. It also works based on gravity models which have been irrelevant for decades with geographical distance being a very important factor despite so much of our economic activity and "exports" being based on an effective separation of 0. The best bit in all of it is that it assumes that nature of global trade remains static: changes in the provision of services aren't considered; the growing prosperity of Asia, Africa, and South America isn't considered despite those globally considered "middle income" being expected to nearly three times as numerous in 2030 compared to 2009 with the report even stating this will be beneficial to the UK; and it ignores technological advances expected over the coming decades.

Just like any government report it is written with assumptions that give the desired conclusion for the government at the time.

Reply 35

Quady

I was working in London on £54k when the Brexit vote took place. Now I work in Glasgow on £68k. Yeah, Brexit rubbish and hasn't even happened yet.

Reply 36

Vinny C

Yes... but they're all up North where people voted to leave. Don't you just love it when justice works.

Reply 37

mgi

Original post by Vinny C

Yes... but they're all up North where people voted to leave. Don't you just love it when justice works.

Parliament has been suspended as well now by Boris! The voices talking about referendums are finally giving up on this delusion!

Reply 38

Vinny C