What next for Hong Kong?
As another day of rioting takes place in Hong Kong, the police are taking an increasingly heavy-handed approach (whether rightly or not), and Carrie Lam invokes the Emergency Regulations Ordinance to ban face masks at protests, I wonder what the future holds for Hong Kong.
Will the authorities eventually quell the violence? If so, at what cost? Will there be a total revolution? If so, where will that leave HK?
What do you think is going to happen next?
Will the authorities eventually quell the violence? If so, at what cost? Will there be a total revolution? If so, where will that leave HK?
What do you think is going to happen next?
Scroll to see replies
It’s impossible to predict for certain . The CCP knows that if they allow the people of Hong Kong to successfully challenge them (in other words if they back down and offer major concessions to the protestors) then others in China will do the same. The CCP cannot afford to back down, but if the protestors back down, they acknowledge the government has won, which I doubt they would like to do. If neither side can retreat without losing its authority, then a serious impasse exists.
From Beijing’s perspective, they could just wait it out, and hope the movement runs out of energy as it has done in the past. BUT, if they can’t handle being undermined and embarrassed so close to home, they might order a crackdown, which could be incredibly dangerous if the protestors try to fight back. Realistically, I think it is more likely to be the former, as it would be horrible PR for them, would alienate a lot of people, and wouldn’t do them any good internationally to be seen sending in forces to HK.
If the protestors grow more extreme, Lam might have a case (people might grow tired of the disruption) for using HK security services ‘independently’ of China for a major crackdown, but this could still entail serious violence, and harm HKs international reputation. She could wait it out for a bit, let the energy start to run out and public opinion change against them, then offer some limited cosmetic reforms, which wouldn’t really have much impact.
From Beijing’s perspective, they could just wait it out, and hope the movement runs out of energy as it has done in the past. BUT, if they can’t handle being undermined and embarrassed so close to home, they might order a crackdown, which could be incredibly dangerous if the protestors try to fight back. Realistically, I think it is more likely to be the former, as it would be horrible PR for them, would alienate a lot of people, and wouldn’t do them any good internationally to be seen sending in forces to HK.
If the protestors grow more extreme, Lam might have a case (people might grow tired of the disruption) for using HK security services ‘independently’ of China for a major crackdown, but this could still entail serious violence, and harm HKs international reputation. She could wait it out for a bit, let the energy start to run out and public opinion change against them, then offer some limited cosmetic reforms, which wouldn’t really have much impact.
I think they are a bit stuck. CCP are unlikely to compromise = they will crack and send in the troops.
Lam will use emergency powers to restore order and mass arrests. She wouldnt be allowed to make concessions even if she wanted to, she will do what CCP tell her.
As brave and well organised as they are, then I dont see CCP giving way and they would rather crush the protesters as an example. They dont need Hong Kong as much as they used to. They can arrest any ring leaders and send them to re education camps.
Protests are well organised, but as China wont budge I see rich HK students leaving and the rest realising one country two systems will not be respected. Maybe they will offer a fudge and scapegoat lam plus offer an investigation which will be a whitewash. They wont do any reforms.
Lam will use emergency powers to restore order and mass arrests. She wouldnt be allowed to make concessions even if she wanted to, she will do what CCP tell her.
As brave and well organised as they are, then I dont see CCP giving way and they would rather crush the protesters as an example. They dont need Hong Kong as much as they used to. They can arrest any ring leaders and send them to re education camps.
Protests are well organised, but as China wont budge I see rich HK students leaving and the rest realising one country two systems will not be respected. Maybe they will offer a fudge and scapegoat lam plus offer an investigation which will be a whitewash. They wont do any reforms.
I basically agree with a lot of the thoughts here. I suppose the only way to know for certain what will happen is to wait and see, and in the meantime the clashes between police and protesters becomes increasingly more violent. As you say, either the protester momentum will run out in the face of the refusal to back down on the part of the authorities or... who knows. Maybe a crackdown on the part of Lam or Beijing itself, neither of which would be good.
Original post by Napp
To be honest im rather hoping they get around to squashing the rioters soon rather than later, im meant to be flying into HK in a couple of weeks and id rather not get petrol bombed by some nasty little rioter.
If I were you, I would cancel my trip.
I am from HK. It is quite a mess outside and all the trains were not working on Saturday. Some stations reopened yesterday but the network was shut down again at 8:30 pm last night. Today the network is only opened to less than 50% of the stations, and will shut down at 6:00 pm. A uni has called off all classes for today.
It is a public holiday today. My church has an outing originally scheduled for today, but it was cancelled as of Saturday. I did not use any public transport over the weekend.
Fortunately, the bus routes I normally take to school are towards the countryside areas (91 Diamond Hill to Clear Water Bay, and 92 Diamond Hill to Sai Kung), so it won't affect me a lot.
It is a public holiday today. My church has an outing originally scheduled for today, but it was cancelled as of Saturday. I did not use any public transport over the weekend.
Fortunately, the bus routes I normally take to school are towards the countryside areas (91 Diamond Hill to Clear Water Bay, and 92 Diamond Hill to Sai Kung), so it won't affect me a lot.
Original post by 8013
I am from HK. It is quite a mess outside and all the trains were not working on Saturday. Some stations reopened yesterday but the network was shut down again at 8:30 pm last night. Today the network is only opened to less than 50% of the stations, and will shut down at 6:00 pm. A uni has called off all classes for today.
It is a public holiday today. My church has an outing originally scheduled for today, but it was cancelled as of Saturday. I did not use any public transport over the weekend.
Fortunately, the bus routes I normally take to school are towards the countryside areas (91 Diamond Hill to Clear Water Bay, and 92 Diamond Hill to Sai Kung), so it won't affect me a lot.
It is a public holiday today. My church has an outing originally scheduled for today, but it was cancelled as of Saturday. I did not use any public transport over the weekend.
Fortunately, the bus routes I normally take to school are towards the countryside areas (91 Diamond Hill to Clear Water Bay, and 92 Diamond Hill to Sai Kung), so it won't affect me a lot.
It is a shame I dont see it ending well. I see some of the protesters getting frustrated. Damage and petrol bombs detract from the other protesters. China will not listen as to give any concessions will be seen as weakness. Continued damage and China will just bus in fake protesters to cause trouble and give the police or army an excuse to start shooting and arresting people proper.
Original post by 8013
If I were you, I would cancel my trip.
Meh, i'd rather police just toss them all in jail.
Original post by Napp
To be honest im rather hoping they get around to squashing the rioters soon rather than later, im meant to be flying into HK in a couple of weeks and id rather not get petrol bombed by some nasty little rioter.
PRSOM.
Original post by Napp
To be honest im rather hoping they get around to squashing the rioters soon rather than later, im meant to be flying into HK in a couple of weeks and id rather not get petrol bombed by some nasty little rioter.
Somehow I don't think you'd be a target, but you should definitely consult the FCO and contemplate cancelling.
A dystopian society like that in Cyberpunk comics!
There are people chanting slogans at my school just now. They are mainly people in my year (Year 11, which is equivalent to your Year 12) and Year 12 (equivalent to your Year 13), which are the 2 highest year groups in my school.
There are also a lot of people protesting against the anti mask law in my school over the past 3 days, and most of them are Years 10-12.
There are also a lot of people protesting against the anti mask law in my school over the past 3 days, and most of them are Years 10-12.
(edited 4 years ago)
Original post by 8013
There are people chanting slogans at my school just now. They are mainly people in my year (Year 11, which is equivalent to your Year 12) and Year 12 (equivalent to your Year 13), which are the 2 highest year groups in my school.
There are also a lot of people protesting against the anti mask law in my school over the past 3 days, and most of them are Years 10-12.
There are also a lot of people protesting against the anti mask law in my school over the past 3 days, and most of them are Years 10-12.
Out of interest, do you see this as being mostly a youth movement?
Original post by CatusStarbright
Out of interest, do you see this as being mostly a youth movement?
I think it is. Most people participating are secondary school and university students. There was also booing of the national anthem in a 2-0 home defeat to Iran during the World Cup qualifiers.
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