No Deal Brexit Will Hit Leave Voting Areas The Hardest - Says Report

Yeah... but aren't you ignoring the fact that the vast majority of UK fish is sold to the EU?

Yeah... but aren't you ignoring the fact that the vast majority of UK fish is sold to the EU?

There's no schadenfreude to be had here, because our Poundland Trump has already started the blame game, and the damage done to these areas will just solidify the anti-EU and anti-left sentiment as the government propaganda machine goes into overdrive to tell them it's the fault of the EU for not surrendering to us, and the fault of labour for not backing a deal or a general election, or for passing the Benn Act. They'll never get to hear the truth, that this is exactly what they voted for, because what they are getting is dictated by the far end of the Tory party, who've never had the interests of the country at heart

Oh the tragic irony of this whole affair. As it easy as it is to say that these people deserve this, it furthers the myth that Brexit happened in a vacuum, and was the consequence of a few bitter xenophobes getting angry at a progressive institution. People voted for Brexit, for Trump, for Bolsanaro, because they were angry at and alienated by an establishment that has left them behind. The system doesn’t work, it should hardly be a surprise that people got angry and wanted a change. The tragedy is that rather than getting angry at the rich who perpetuate this broken system, they were taken in by the lies of charismatic populists like Farage, who saw an opportunity for unprecedented power by undermining the institutions, that if reformed, could have changed society for the better. We have to address the feelings of discontent and abandonment that fuelled Brexit, rather than just dismiss all leavers as bigots and liars, or else this will not be the last geopolitical calamity we face.

People's real incomes either fell or stagnated after the 2008 financial crash and in many cases are still stuck at early-2000s levels. This makes working people angry and they look for someone to blame. It is always the case that the hard right step into such situations and come up with easy finger-pointing and blame games - in our case the EU as a thinly-veiled figleaf for racism.

This did sweep the world and we are just a symptom, not a cause. The good news is that in some places now, like Hungary, Italy and others, the trend is being counter-attacked successfully by more rational forces - even in Turkey, which is why Erdogan is currently engaged in nationalistic warmongering against defenceless victims. (That particular right wing response is not so easy for the British to get into now as we have basically scrapped our armed forces to hand money over to banks.) It's now up to us to counter-attack our own one. Trump is going to lose big in the next election in the US (opinion is significantly hardening against him in the crucial swing states) and Johnson and the ERG/Faragists will look increasingly stupid and marginal when he goes.

I've said before on here that the crash of 2008 was part of the problem, but wages have also been suppressed by large scale immigration which only served to worsen the situation.
Here's a report by the BoE on how wages have been affected and how there are different ways of reading what has happened, also QEII please note figure 4 on page 10 to see the sharp rise of low skilled workers between 2012-2014.

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-paper/2015/the-impact-of-immigration-on-occupational-wages-evidence-from-britain.pdf

I've said before on here that the crash of 2008 was part of the problem, but wages have also been suppressed by large scale immigration which only served to worsen the situation.
Here's a report by the BoE on how wages have been affected and how there are different ways of reading what has happened, also QEII please note figure 4 on page 10 to see the sharp rise of low skilled workers between 2012-2014.

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-paper/2015/the-impact-of-immigration-on-occupational-wages-evidence-from-britain.pdf

The impact of immigration on wages is incredibly small: https://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/how-small-small-impact-immigration-uk-wages

In making such claims, you're turning immigration into the scapegoat for the failure of right wing economics to adequately provide for the many, for politics designed to suppress workers at the benefit of the upper classes. Like most of our problems, low wages were created at home through domestic attempts to strangle workers organising in unions and collective bargaining.

What are everyone's thoughts of this?

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-deal-will-hit-leave-voting-areas-hardest-says-report-mxt8nqzxm

As bad as these reports sound they are short term and don’t assume any change in wider policy (if we did not take advantage of leaving there’d be no point). For example fishing, not being subject to state aid rules (discriminating in favour of British firms) and no longer (in the long term given the cost) having to apply VAT.

I’m not overly concerned at the content. Brexit is a long term project.

How very magnanimous of you, but I think that the vast majority of us knew what we were letting ourselves in for.
Now just sit back and watch as a deal appears before your very eyes over the next few days, obviously the threat of a no deal brexit has done it's job which is exactly why it has to stay as an option.

As bad as these reports sound they are short term and don’t assume any change in wider policy (if we did not take advantage of leaving there’d be no point). For example fishing, not being subject to state aid rules (discriminating in favour of British firms) and no longer (in the long term given the cost) having to apply VAT.

I’m not overly concerned at the content. Brexit is a long term project.

There will be no new deal (a deal is more than just a proposal from one side). And No Deal has been legally ruled out.
This is just political manoeuvring to try and avoid being blamed for no deal being accepted and the next extension being agreed. Ireland will always be the fatal stumbling block for any deal.

If people who voted for Brexit then find themselves unemployed and living in poverty as a result of Brexit, it is difficult to have any sympathy for them. They made their decision, they have to accept the consequences of their decision.

However it will be a real shame to see people who didn't vote for Brexit suffer due to the irresponsibility of Brexiters.

Of course not, my point is that all economic forecasts have suggested that there will be a drop in relative growth of upto half a percent in GDP per year out to 2030 which means that any gain from Brexit is long term. With that being said, those forecasts may also be overly bearish given that they assume the status-quo.

For me though, that's a price worth paying for new opportunities

and to leave the single market (to be able to do things like state aid and vat reform).

It would have to be done in stages probably over at least a decade but you could get a good £30bn from abolishing foreign aid,

bringing in a carbon tax and bringing in a 'mansion' tax.

From there we have other possibilities such as removing the state contribution to pensions,

restricting the annual NHS splurge simply to 2% per annum

Indeed. By removing protections to workers' rights and conditions, by reducing access and increasing tariffs to some of our main export markets, plus reducing our influence when negotiating new deals, the things are bound to get better for the average working person. Duh!

Exiting the Common Fisheries Policy is likely to be beneficial because currently more than 60% of stock in UK waters is able to be caught by foreigners.

Exiting the Single Market means that we are no longer legally obligated to apply VAT on anything albeit as mentioned it brings in a lot of revenue and would take time to remove.