No Deal Brexit Will Hit Leave Voting Areas The Hardest - Says Report

Original post by _gcx

Toxic ties need to be severed and that'll inevitably come at a cost.

Like the ones holding our shoes on?

Reply 41

Original post by Quady

£120bn in VAT from the fishing industry? That's incredible.

That's pollocks, more like.

Reply 42

Sam1999__

Original post by Fullofsurprises

Yes, the Tory plan will be to blame the EU when a whole series of large manufacturers up sticks and leave, to nobody's surprise at all apart from hardcore Brextremists.

This will happen even with the deal currently being proposed, because it takes us out of both the single market and the customs union, both of which are vital to our economic wellbeing. The idea that it can be auto-magically replaced by the wave of Jacob Rees-Mogg's free trade magic wand is simply a delusion.

Explain the logic behind this statement. 80% of economy is based on services and only 10% of our economy is based on exporting to the EU. We pay astronomical sums of money into the EU in return for saving ourselves from having to pay a 25% tariff (WTO rules) on 10% of our economy.

So the argument that our economy is dependent on an arrangement that included us being regulated on 100% of our economy to have tariff free trade on 10% is simply ludicrous. This isn't even mentioning that many potential trade deals we will be able to strike once out of the EU will easily negate this anyway. Economics aside, Brexit will allow the revival of the British identity and fight back against the globalist erosion of nation states. I am British and proud of it, and I went my children to grow up proud to be British as well, if things continue the way they are in Europe future generations will forget their British identity and become absorbed in a European superstate. The Brexit argument for economics alone is compelling, but we must not forget the non economic side of it. If European integration continues, Britain will simply become a state of a German dominated Europe, our nationhood is sacred and we cannot willingly surrender it to a multinational political project.

Reply 43

Original post by ColinDent

I've said before on here that the crash of 2008 was part of the problem, but wages have also been suppressed by large scale immigration which only served to worsen the situation.
Here's a report by the BoE on how wages have been affected and how there are different ways of reading what has happened, also QEII please note figure 4 on page 10 to see the sharp rise of low skilled workers between 2012-2014.

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-paper/2015/the-impact-of-immigration-on-occupational-wages-evidence-from-britain.pdf

That report states that immigration has only a small effect of low-skill wages if immigration rises significantly. (Findings that it admits is contradicted by the consensus of experts in the field)
However, it also states that EU or non-EU immigration does not alter the effect. Therefore given that leaving the EU will not affect (and many predict it will increase) non-EU immigration, this "problem" will not be solved by leaving the EU.

Anyway, I thought you dismissed any figures and statistics on immigration. Now they are suddenly trustworthy and valid? Curious.

Reply 44

Original post by QE2

That's pollocks, more like.

Or a load of cods wallop?

Reply 45

Original post by Sam1999__

People keep forgetting that only 10% of our exports go to the European Union

Erm, no. Nearly half of all UK exports go to the EU.

Oh, hold on, that can't be right. Leavers keep telling us that Brexit will mean we will be able to trade with other countries, so we must currently export 100% to the EU. Yes?

the EU is an insult to patriotism and national identity.

Only if you base your "patriotism and national identity" on disliking foreigners.

it was slowly brought in through the back door.

In my experience, if you are going to introduce something through the back door, it's usually better to do it quickly, before they realise what you are up to.

Leaving will allow us to reclaim and assert our British identity

In what way?

in addition to us being free to make trade deals all over the world, something the EU is an impediment to.

Whoah! Back up there a sec. You just claimed that 90% of UK exports already go to countries outside the EU. Therefore we already have these trade deals in place, despite being in the EU which stops us from trading with the wider world.

Reply 46

Original post by QE2

There will be no new deal (a deal is more than just a proposal from one side). And No Deal has been legally ruled out.
This is just political manoeuvring to try and avoid being blamed for no deal being accepted and the next extension being agreed. Ireland will always be the fatal stumbling block for any deal.

No deal has been ruled out 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 dream on Queenie.

Reply 47

Original post by Sam1999__

Working class people stand the most to gain, we are primarily a service economy and a plentiful supply of cheap labour from the continent does nothing but harm to people working in blue collar professions by undercutting wages. Historically, it is the lowest echelons of society which feels the greatest impact of mass and uncontrolled immigration.

There are only around 500,000 EU migrants in low skilled jobs. The consensus amongst experts is that EU migration has a negligible effect on wage levels. What has actually suppressed wages across the board is a decade of unnecessary Tory austerity policies, not a few Polish barmaids and Romanian cleaners.

Also the EU is not a champion of human and workers rights,

Kinda is. Certainly in comparison to what the Tory right will do if they are given the chance.

we should not be taking morality lectures from a German controlled organisation.

No idea what point you are trying to make there. Please expand.

Workers rights are protected within UK law

Nonsense. Didn't you know that the UK can't make its own laws? Thats one of the reasons for Brexit.

and many of the legislative protections from EU law will likely be drafted into UK law according to politicians involved in Brexit

Not likely, definitely. Part of the Brexit process involved passing EU directives into UK law so that they will apply after Brexit.
Seems a bit odd though, don't you think? We leave the EU to take back control of our own laws, so we then pass into UK law EU directives that are not currently part of UK law, so they will be UK law.

Reply 48

Original post by ColinDent

No deal has been ruled out 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 dream on Queenie.

Not heard of the "Benn Act"? Keep up.

Reply 49

Original post by ColinDent

No deal has been ruled out 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 dream on Queenie.

Speaking of the Queen... was that the Queen's speech or a party political broadcast by the ERG? She normally talks a great deal of common sense but with respect, not on this occasion, Ma'am.

Reply 50

_gcx

Study Forum Helper

Original post by Vinny C

Like the ones holding our shoes on?

toxic ties.

the EU is not as fundamental as you imply. whether it'll still even be around in a decade or a few decades time is dubious.

Reply 51

Original post by _gcx

toxic ties.

the EU is not as fundamental as you imply. whether it'll still even be around in a decade or a few decades time is dubious.

The only toxicity I see so far is the desire to tear our Nation apart in order to be popular. A referendum campaign openly run on bigotry, blame and lies to falsely cultivate an attitude of the people vs Parliament. A toxic cauldron of hatred where some 30 right wing elitists pull the strings of an assembly of over 600 and now it seems, also the Queen. An insidious movement willing to bring about the downfall of the most successful Tory government of the century to get it's own way. Cameron may not have been popular but he wasn't in it to win brownie points. I never said the EU was perfect but it pulled us out of the racist, unemployed anarchy of the '70's which you seem determined to plunge us back into.

(edited 4 years ago)

Reply 52

Quady

Original post by QE2

Not heard of the "Benn Act"? Keep up.

That rules out no deal?
How?

Reply 53

Original post by QE2

Not heard of the "Benn Act"? Keep up.

Awww bless, still relying on that?

Reply 54

Original post by Quady

That rules out no deal?
How?

QE2 obviously needs to learn about article 51 of a different treaty.

Reply 55

DJKL

Original post by Quady

Fishing boats?
Fuel?

Recoverable by a vat registered party (fisherman) making zero rated supplies (foodstuffs).

Vat is in the main a tax on the end user , usually the public ,or on someone in the chain who may not recover (banks/financials often being such an example). The vat a vat registered business pays on its purchases is most often input vat claim against and reducing the payment to HMRC of the vat on their outputs (sales),

So if a vat reg party sells items for £1,000 plus vat of £200 and paid £600 plus vat of £120 on their purchases they get in £1200 from customer pay £720 to supplier, pay £80 to HMRC (200-120) and keep £400.

Reply 56

DJKL

Original post by Sam1999__

People keep forgetting that only 10% of our exports go to the European Union yet we accept EU regulation on 100% of our economy for the sake of that 10%.

People do not forget that because it is incorrect. This is somewhat nearer reality:

"In 2018, UK exports to the EU were £289 billion (46% of all UK exports)"

https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/

Reply 57