Climate change happening? yes
Climate change causing everything from a cold winter to the volcano exploding in NZ recently? no

I believe climate changed is used as a scapegoat for any random event related to nature

(edited 4 years ago)

Reply 6

username4528716

OP

18

Original post by Miss Maddie

Climate change happening? yes
Climate change causing everything from a cold winter to the volcano exploding in NZ recently? no

I believe climate changed is used as a scapegoat for any random event related to nature

Okay, I'll accept that.

I don't know of anyone claiming that volcanoes are caused by climate change, if anything, they actually cool the planet.

Reply 7

Rakas21

21

Original post by Ferrograd

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=hpnews&id=5149&title=Winter+remains+AWOL

A far cry from one of the coldest winters in 30 years as many were predicting https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-weather-forecast-beast-from-the-east-coldest-winter-latest-a9096601.html.

Seems other places have been mild or very mild too.

Although i would first again caution you from looking at media forecasts from the likes of the Independent (only the GLOSEA5 and ECWMF seasonal models have any real skill - though TWO is a respected website in the community) it has been a remarkably warm first half to January although actually only the warmest since 2007.

With regards to your thread title though, the record looks unlikely to go. Reliable modelling takes us a good week out now and the CET should drop off over the next week or so. A finish warmer than December (so very mild) but not threatening the record is likely without a substantive change in output. The warmest January since 2008 does appear very likely however.

On the climate change argument it's hard to say how much you can ascribe to it in this instance. The Pacific pattern (Victoria Mode/EPO) was always going to fight us this season and only very low solar activity was strongly on our side (other indices were somewhat weak). As it turns out we have seen a strong polar vortex although that should relent over the next few weeks, especially with the MJO at high amplitude (so a rabidly zonal February seems unlikely).

It could be worse though, the strong vortex pushing westerlies much further east than normal has led to some startling anomolies over Russia.

https://twitter.com/ScottDuncanWX/status/1217497895651422209/photo/1

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EOVyp5_WAAAKHGo?format=jpg&name=medium

(edited 4 years ago)

Reply 8

username4528716

OP

18

Original post by Rakas21

Although i would first again caution you from looking at media forecasts from the likes of the Independent (only the GLOSEA5 and ECWMF seasonal models have any real skill - though TWO is a respected website in the community) it has been a remarkably warm first half to January although actually only the warmest since 2007.

With regards to your thread title though, the record looks unlikely to go. Reliable modelling takes us a good week out now and the CET should drop off over the next week or so. A finish warmer than December (so very mild) but not threatening the record is likely without a substantive change in output. The warmest January since 2008 does appear very likely however.

On the climate change argument it's hard to say how much you can ascribe to it in this instance. The Pacific pattern (Victoria Mode/EPO) was always going to fight us this season and only very low solar activity was strongly on our side (other indices were somewhat weak). As it turns out we have seen a strong polar vortex although that should relent over the next few weeks, especially with the MJO at high amplitude (so a rabidly zonal February seems unlikely).

It could be worse though, the strong vortex pushing westerlies much further east than normal has led to some startling anomolies over Russia.

https://twitter.com/ScottDuncanWX/status/1217497895651422209/photo/1

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EOVyp5_WAAAKHGo?format=jpg&name=medium

Yeah I've heard how Russia has been significantly warmer than normal, though obviously it is still freezing compared to the rest of europe.

I've noticed though that many places in the Arctic like Greenland and many parts of northern Canada are very, very cold, quite a bit colder than average.

It is supposed to get much colder this weekend in the UK, is february likely to continue the mild trend or be colder? TWO is saying March will potentailly be very cold (or colder than average) due to weakened polar vortex

Is it true about it being 3.8C+ above average? Seems very high.

(edited 4 years ago)

Reply 9

Rakas21

21

Original post by Ferrograd

Yeah I've heard how Russia has been significantly warmer than normal, though obviously it is still freezing compared to the rest of europe.

I've noticed though that many places in the Arctic like Greenland and many parts of northern Canada are very, very cold, quite a bit colder than average.

It is supposed to get much colder this weekend in the UK, is february likely to continue the mild trend or be colder? TWO is saying March will potentailly be very cold (or colder than average) due to weakened polar vortex

Is it true about it being 3.8C+ above average? Seems very high.

It's 3C above the the most recent 1981-2010 average so yes, it will that much warmer compared to an older average that they are probably using. That's not quite as breathtaking as you think though since end of month adjustments tend to bring the value down and your more likely to get extreme anomalies over shorter periods like half monthly rather than full monthly periods. Looking at some recent records the Aprils of 2007 and 2011 (exceptional to break the record twice) were only 2.7C and 3.3C above average, the first half of May 2008 was running about 5C above average but dropped off as the month went on (summer then went on to be one of the dullest and wettest on record), July 2006 was the hottest month on record but is only 3.3C above average and September 2006 also the warmest on record was only 2.8C above average, the October of 2001 is only 2.7C above average but the warmest albeit December 2015 comes in at a whopping 5.1C above average.

Current signs are that February should be closer to average and for March it is difficult to say (GLOSEA5 suggests Spring will be very warm in Europe) however it is not abnormal for mild winters to be followed by cooler springs in the UK.

Reply 10

username4528716

OP

18

Original post by Rakas21

Although i would first again caution you from looking at media forecasts from the likes of the Independent (only the GLOSEA5 and ECWMF seasonal models have any real skill - though TWO is a respected website in the community) it has been a remarkably warm first half to January although actually only the warmest since 2007.

With regards to your thread title though, the record looks unlikely to go. Reliable modelling takes us a good week out now and the CET should drop off over the next week or so. A finish warmer than December (so very mild) but not threatening the record is likely without a substantive change in output. The warmest January since 2008 does appear very likely however.

On the climate change argument it's hard to say how much you can ascribe to it in this instance. The Pacific pattern (Victoria Mode/EPO) was always going to fight us this season and only very low solar activity was strongly on our side (other indices were somewhat weak). As it turns out we have seen a strong polar vortex although that should relent over the next few weeks, especially with the MJO at high amplitude (so a rabidly zonal February seems unlikely).

It could be worse though, the strong vortex pushing westerlies much further east than normal has led to some startling anomolies over Russia.

https://twitter.com/ScottDuncanWX/status/1217497895651422209/photo/1

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EOVyp5_WAAAKHGo?format=jpg&name=medium

https://www.metcheck.com/WEATHER/cet.asp#

That's predicting CET for month of 7.95

Reply 11

Rakas21

21

Original post by Ferrograd

https://www.metcheck.com/WEATHER/cet.asp#

That's predicting CET for month of 7.95

Yes however that’s because it’s just taking the model forecast. Models are notorious for underestimating minima in winter and underestimating maxima in summer. Those who analyse it and perform an adjustment seem to be estimating a probable finish around 6-6.5C.

Reply 12

QE2

20

Original post by Miss Maddie

Climate change happening? yes
Climate change causing everything from a cold winter to the volcano exploding in NZ recently? no
I believe climate changed is used as a scapegoat for any random event related to nature

That is an argument only used by climate change deniers. No informed person claims that everything is down to climate change.

Reply 13

username4528716

OP

18

Original post by Rakas21

Yes however that’s because it’s just taking the model forecast. Models are notorious for underestimating minima in winter and underestimating maxima in summer. Those who analyse it and perform an adjustment seem to be estimating a probable finish around 6-6.5C.

Fair enough that seems about right. Any links to those CETs?

(edited 4 years ago)

Reply 14

username4528716

OP

18

Original post by QE2

That is an argument only used by climate change deniers. No informed person claims that everything is down to climate change.

You can't deny though, perhaps naturally, nowadays our first reaction to any extreme weather event is "climate change". Remember last year when it got to 20C+ in february? I was sh*tting myself tbh - but then you realise that it wasn't far off from the last high, 19.7 in 98. As scientists say, it is practically impossible to attribute one freak weather event to climate change.