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Can Labour win in 2024?

What do you think? I feel if they elect Starmer or Nandy it could maybe happen but they will go further down if Long Bailey wins ...

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Reply 1
Avatar for Rakas21
Rakas21
21
Original post by DeesideEwan
What do you think? I feel if they elect Starmer or Nandy it could maybe happen but they will go further down if Long Bailey wins ...

The chances of Labour winning are around 5%.

In the past 70 years (since the 1950 general election) only one election (there have been twenty) has produced a swing sufficient for Labour to have the most votes at the next election. That was the 1997 election of Tony Blair.

It is possible of course that you can lose in both votes and seats and enter a union destroying coalition however you still need about a 4% swing and most importantly the Liberal Democrats to punch above 15% and pocket seats.
(edited 4 years ago)
Short Answer: No.
Long Answer: Ha, ha, ha - Nooooooooo.

A
Depends.

Leader
Realistic policies.
Performance of government.
Events.

Unless they recapture or compete for the centre ground they arent going anywhere as only then would the provide a viable alternative with less loon.

Listening to an interview this morning with some party person blaming it on the media and unwilling to accept policies were naive and their message was weak/ confused. Deluded.

I think at the moment unlikely, but a long way to go.
maybe if coronavirus goes into full effect in the uk and kills off all the old people
Reply 5
Avatar for DSilva
DSilva
12
Original post by Rakas21
The chances of Labour winning are around 5%.

In the past 70 years (since the 1950 general election) only one election (there have been twenty) has produced a swing sufficient for Labour to have the most votes at the next election. That was the 1997 election of Tony Blair.

It is possible of course that you can lose in both votes and seats and enter a union destroying coalition however you still need about a 4% swing and most importantly the Liberal Democrats to punch above 15% and pocket seats.

Labour and the Lib Dems tend to do well or badly together.

If Starmer or Nandy wins and forms a decent impression, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Lib Dem vote shoot up. Potential Tory - Lib Dem swing voters are more likely to vote Lib Dems if the Labour leader is palatable.
Way too early to tell, they haven't even got their new leader yet.
Of course we can.

We have sone serious issues to address first mind you, I dont think starmer is the man either.
(edited 4 years ago)
Reply 8
Avatar for Neilos
Neilos
18
Actually 'winning' would probably need an SNP collapse on top of a Conservative collapse, especially if the boundaries are redrawn in a fairer way by then. Oh, and it'd need a credible Labour party.

So I'm not convinced they can gain a majority. But I think there's a decent chance of them getting into the position of leading a messy coalition, which would have passed for winning in recent years.
Reply 9
Avatar for Drewski
Drewski
19
Theoretically? Yes.

Realistically? No.
One thing to note which some may not have factored is that only 12 Tory seats are at real risk from the Lib Dem’s in 2024 but there are 38 seats where the Brexit Party vote exceeds the Labour majority to the Tories.
When Brexit goes tits up, if they can get themselves on the tidal wave of the cries of getting this country back in the EU then I think they stand a good chance. That being said, if Long Bailey gets anywhere near the top during this they won't have a ****ing chance.
Original post by imlikeahermit
When Brexit goes tits up, if they can get themselves on the tidal wave of the cries of getting this country back in the EU then I think they stand a good chance. That being said, if Long Bailey gets anywhere near the top during this they won't have a ****ing chance.

And you know what exactly about RLB?
Given how wild and unpredictable politics have been in the last five years, it's very difficult to predict what conditions will be like in 2024 and hence whether Labour can win then.

There are three key things that the next Labour leader needs to accomplish to win the next election:

Firstly, the next Labour leader needs to select suitable voting blocs to engage with an win over. These voting blocs need to contain enough voters to actually swing the election, and they also need to not be essentially diametrically opposed to each other, like north London metropolitan elites and north of England Brexiteers were.

Secondly, they need to be able to convince the party that winning elections, being able to enact policies, is worth more than ideological purity, or "winning the argument".

Lastly, they need to be able to win back much of their Scottish central belt seats. This is going to be incredibly difficult because Labour have been seen to be nothing more than a farce in Scotland for over a decade now. The SNP have completely blown Labour out of the water, doing everything they did but much more competently. And given that Labour have one Scottish MP, and aren't even the opposition at Holyrood, even if they can get themselves together again I don't know how they're going to be able to demonstrate it to the Scottish people.

So given this, I think that if Labour can win back ground, and be set on the path to becoming an electable party again, they're doing well.
Possibly.
It depends on who they select as leader, how much the Conservatives get seriously wrong, how effective Labour opposition is and whether they move away from Corbynist style socialism to more centrist politics.
(edited 4 years ago)
Original post by Smack

Secondly, they need to be able to convince the party that winning elections, being able to enact policies, is worth more than ideological purity, or "winning the argument".

This is the bit which will kill them off, imho.

A
I suppose it's possible, but I v much doubt it. From what i've seen their just going to do the same stuff and any self reflection feels skin deep.

I only saw 2 of them over the whole campaign and i chased them away.
Original post by Burton Bridge
And you know what exactly about RLB?

She is not electable. If the Labour party had any sense whatsoever, then they'd see that they have to move well away from Corbyn. RLB is continuity, she is not what people want. She might be what the left wing loons want, but not what the general populous wants, which is a move towards the centre ground.
Original post by imlikeahermit
She is not electable. If the Labour party had any sense whatsoever, then they'd see that they have to move well away from Corbyn. RLB is continuity, she is not what people want. She might be what the left wing loons want, but not what the general populous wants, which is a move towards the centre ground.

Not an answer, I asked what exactly you know exactly about RLB? You answered with the usual insults to anyone with a different view to yourself, in this case left wing socialists. Then added wild accusations supported with no evidence.

So why is she is not electable?

Why is she continuity Corbyn, why do you think this?

Why do think people are mentally unstable to believe in democratic socialism?

How do you know the country wants us to chase this middle ground which is the biggest unicorn of all, in my opinion. One of the things Margarget Thatcher was correct about is, there is no 3rd way, we either go low taxation, low public service or we go high taxation, high public service!

So what exactly do you know about about RLB and how do you know it? I think I know the answer already but let's clear the grey area.
(edited 4 years ago)
Too early to tell, depends on the path Labour wish to take, Corbyn 2.0 or to take back their historic seats and enacts policies for real change, but the polls for Starmer seem to be the final nail in the coffin for a few more general elections to come...

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