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Will Brexit be good for Britain?

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Original post by Doones
No, I want the wishes of devolved parliaments to be respected Remember that democracy thing?

Devolved assemblies have no bearing over foreign policy as highlighted by the Supreme Court. Really they shouldn't even be voting on it at that level, only the things that effect their currently devolved competencies.
(edited 4 years ago)
Nothing will change in the next year or so
Of course it won't be. The uneducated masses have been sold down the river by a group of politicians who will stand to make money off it in the short term.

GDP will drop, cost of living will rise, median salary will drop, unemployment will rise. The ironic thing is that I expect the people who will revolt against this first will be the same idiots that voted for this shambles. Every single economic forecast shows that it will be devastating to the UK. Yet, the leavers never seem to believe it? And when factories close, or services leave, or big global companies leave, it's never Brexits fault? Apparently...

We are not big, we are not clever and we have really **** the bed on this one.
Original post by imlikeahermit
Of course it won't be. The uneducated masses have been sold down the river by a group of politicians who will stand to make money off it in the short term.

GDP will drop, cost of living will rise, median salary will drop, unemployment will rise. The ironic thing is that I expect the people who will revolt against this first will be the same idiots that voted for this shambles. Every single economic forecast shows that it will be devastating to the UK. Yet, the leavers never seem to believe it? And when factories close, or services leave, or big global companies leave, it's never Brexits fault? Apparently...

We are not big, we are not clever and we have really **** the bed on this one.

Assuming we don't move to a no deal your misreading the analysis somewhat.

On the GDP point the forecast is not for a 6% GDP drop, but a 6% reduction in growth to 2030. This essentially means that average growth is forecast to be closer to 1.5% than 2% but it's still growth.

The same is true for wages and unemployment. Short of a no deal there will not be a sudden en mass movement to the continent, instead it may simply mean less future investment so slower wage rises and hiring, but still wage rises and hiring.

There is no credible scenario of us signing a trade deal and entering a recession next year as a result. Even the IMF acknowledges that uncertainty has cost more than likely departing in an orderly manner will.
It does, but it could sell out to the USA in an act of desperation if they are the only ones who will do a trade deal with us. We will go from an EU puppet (not even that tbh because we had a lot of rights) to a USA puppet. The situation is like the ones the surrendering Germans faced at the end of WW2. There was a saying. The optimistic German officers learnt English, in the hope they would be captured by the allies. The pessimistic ones learnt Russia, knowing they would be captured by the Soviets and executed. We face a similar situation - we either become US puppet or an EU one. And frankly, I'd rather join the latter, knowing they have better environmental, health, trade standards etc
Original post by Rakas21
Assuming we don't move to a no deal your misreading the analysis somewhat.

On the GDP point the forecast is not for a 6% GDP drop, but a 6% reduction in growth to 2030. This essentially means that average growth is forecast to be closer to 1.5% than 2% but it's still growth.

The same is true for wages and unemployment. Short of a no deal there will not be a sudden en mass movement to the continent, instead it may simply mean less future investment so slower wage rises and hiring, but still wage rises and hiring.

There is no credible scenario of us signing a trade deal and entering a recession next year as a result. Even the IMF acknowledges that uncertainty has cost more than likely departing in an orderly manner will.



All of that based on the assumption that Boris and the EU will be able to get a half decent trade deal together. Without it, and with tariffs, you can forget any growth.

Any idea when the pound will go back up to pre Brexit level? No, me either...
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Avatar for Doones
Doones
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Pot.
Kettle.
https://www.thestudentroom.co.uk/showpost.php?p=87020662&postcount=19
Every single GDP forecast before that. I hadn’t seen the IMF one. That being said, you’re still negating the issue here. The economy will suffer after Brexit, at least short term, yes?

This would also be the same IMF that forecasted a two year recession after Brexit?
(edited 4 years ago)
Original post by imlikeahermit
Every single GDP forecast before that. I hadn’t seen the IMF one. That being said, you’re still negating the issue here. The economy will suffer after Brexit, at least short term, yes?

This would also be the same IMF that forecasted a two year recession after Brexit?

The Treasury worst case scenario predicted a mild recession, the median estimates of both the Treasury and IMF proved closer to the mark but they don't sell newspapers or get TV audiences.

The Treasury and IMF both forecast relatively good going subject to no-deal as do the OBR and BOE.
(edited 4 years ago)
Original post by imlikeahermit
All of that based on the assumption that Boris and the EU will be able to get a half decent trade deal together. Without it, and with tariffs, you can forget any growth.

Any idea when the pound will go back up to pre Brexit level? No, me either...

We're currently not that far behind normal pre brexit pound values, ordinarily it was somewhere in the 1.2's but due to a massive gamble on the result of the referendum rose to an artificially high level immediately prior to said referendum.
Nah. They'll have their fish caught by EU boats 12 miles off our coast. UK caught fish inside 12 miles will be priced out and used as a bargaining chip. After alk, we are small fry compared to the EU. We lost our empire 60 years ago.
Yes we can but we need to tackle immigration more thoroughly and start deporting more criminals there's too many bad immigrants in the country
I think it is an act of economic self-harm. The question is by how much and we will not really know until the trade deal is concluded. If Mr Johnson gives in to EU wishes so he can get a deal this year, then the damage may be limited a bit.
Original post by ByEeek
We are a long way off being back to where we were in 2016

How exactly do you mean
Original post by ByEeek
After all, we are small fry compared to the EU. We lost our empire 60 years ago.

Sure, we're 1 vs 27, but economically we're the 3rd largest country in the EU (closely behind france) and we're the 3rd largest contributor to the EU, so they'll definitely feel the effects.

There are also only 10 net contributors to the EU, soon to be 9, and (as of 2016 at least), France and Spain were also unhappy with the EU, and most countries are still fairly 50/50, so if Brexit goes well for us then France and Spain could be stirred to leave, meaning another large chunk of the budget lost and another significant net contributor gone.
My opinion: We cant know for sure what will happen post-Brexit.
Its all well and good making arguments that the country will benefit or regret leaving the EU, but the truth is, we just cant know for sure. I am a remainer as I think we would be safer together as a union and dont want to fall into the hands of nationalistic views, but I acknowledge that perhaps it isn't completely stupid to leave the EU - it very well may turn out to put us in a powerful economic position. One thing is for sure though; Brexit seems like a very risky move, and I personally dont think it is worth the risk. I'm very dissatisfied with Boris' 11-month transition period plan, and how it seems increasingly likely he may have to choose between the US and the EU. But then again, what happens happens. I may be right, I may be wrong. Guess we'll find out quite soon enough (I hope not though Boris needs to extend that transition period lol).
Original post by DeesideEwan
What do you think, can Britain make a success of leaving the E.U?


In short term, like 1-5 years, not.

In a long term, like 20 years it can be terrific, considering the EU's mismanagement, bureaucracy and socialism.
Original post by DeesideEwan
What do you think, can Britain make a success of leaving the E.U?


Maybe, maybe not, will we be better than we were in the EU? Probably not, leaving the largest trading bloc in the world (in it's simplest form) seems a bit foolish if we are trying to achieve a strong economy.
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Olly_Hp
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Original post by SuspiciousDuck
Maybe, maybe not, will we be better than we were in the EU? Probably not, leaving the largest trading bloc in the world (in it's simplest form) seems a bit foolish if we are trying to achieve a strong economy.


85% of the world trade outside of the single market, Connect with nations such as America, Canada, Australia, besides EU nations would have to be complete tossers if they didn't want to trade with us.
this so called 85% of the world trade outside the EU single largest market . Please could you provide the proof.
Is it by volume as in money ? or by head count ? or by trade agreement ?
(edited 4 years ago)

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