Can Labour win in 2024?

Does anybody else find the deflection from Labour candidates saying they should have never backed the election amusing amusing. It’s almost like they don’t want to acknowledge that the remain alliance had fallen apart and that the Libs and SNP had already decided to go for one.

Reply 22

DSilva

12

Original post by Rakas21

One thing to note which some may not have factored is that only 12 Tory seats are at real risk from the Lib Dem’s in 2024 but there are 38 seats where the Brexit Party vote exceeds the Labour majority to the Tories.

I don't think it always works like that. As the last three elections have shown you often get wild swings in places you don't expect.

Reply 23

Original post by DSilva

I don't think it always works like that. As the last three elections have shown you often get wild swings in places you don't expect.

Swing is never universal but it is close enough allowing for a margin of error. Plug the 2017 or 2019 numbers into the 2015 and 2017 results and you still get close enough to the actual result.

The bulk point of course is that if the Tories get 50-75% of those Brx votes then they are starting from net gains even with Lib losses. If Labour can't get direct transfer from the SNP or Tories on a sufficient scale then they won't get close to even forming coalition, let alone actually winning.

Reply 24

Wōden

Original post by juugsailorshawty

maybe if coronavirus goes into full effect in the uk and kills off all the old people

Conservative supporters (of all ages) tend to live in more sparsely populated semi-rural and rural areas whereas Labour's support is now overwhelmingly centered in densely populated urban areas like Manchester, Leeds, Birmingham and of course London......

https://metro.co.uk/2020/01/29/london-risk-coronavirus-city-europe-12143557/

...Oh dear.

Reply 25

londonmyst

19

Original post by Rakas21

Does anybody else find the deflection from Labour candidates saying they should have never backed the election amusing amusing. It’s almost like they don’t want to acknowledge that the remain alliance had fallen apart and that the Libs and SNP had already decided to go for one.

Very entertaining. :hahaha:

The snide 'I told you so' x20 from Tony Blair and Emily Thornberry are equally amusing.

(edited 4 years ago)

Reply 26

Just my opinion

20

No.
I think there is going to be wave of patriotism. Labour realise this that's why they came up with the rather pathetic "we are progressive Patriots"
They have been giving the impression that they hate patriotism for so long that nobody will buy it.
I think 2014 is the Tories to lose not Labours to win.

Reply 27

Burton Bridge

Original post by Rakas21

Does anybody else find the deflection from Labour candidates saying they should have never backed the election amusing amusing. It’s almost like they don’t want to acknowledge that the remain alliance had fallen apart and that the Libs and SNP had already decided to go for one.

Yes, it's the anger stage of denial

Reply 28

Original post by Burton Bridge

Yes, it's the anger stage of denial

And yet you chose to rejoin this pitiful variant of the party.

Reply 29

Burton Bridge

Original post by Rakas21

And yet you chose to rejoin this pitiful variant of the party.

I do, I'm a socialist. Labour need to come back stronger than ever, the country needs us. We are going to get (bar brexit) more of the same decay under the tories, it's a continuation of the Cameron/Clegg style government under Johnson and co.

Reply 30

DSilva

12

Original post by Burton Bridge

I do, I'm a socialist. Labour need to come back stronger than ever, the country needs us. We are going to get (bar brexit) more of the same decay under the tories, it's a continuation of the Cameron/Clegg style government under Johnson and co.

I think Starmer will prove a solid albeit not spectacular choice. He's certainly competent and looks the part. He's very good on the detail which is probably Johnson's biggest weakness.

Reply 31

DSilva

12

Also why is this leadership election so long? It already feels like it's gone on for ages and there's two months left.

Reply 32

Burton Bridge

Original post by DSilva

I think Starmer will prove a solid albeit not spectacular choice. He's certainly competent and looks the part. He's very good on the detail which is probably Johnson's biggest weakness.

Yea, but hes very close to the Corbyn government. Hes very elite london central and has been very patronising to the north on brexit....

I dont think hes the man, but I will support him if he wins.

Reply 33

Original post by DSilva

Also why is this leadership election so long? It already feels like it's gone on for ages and there's two months left.

The contest being long is to allow analysis of why they lost and also allow a perceived wider debate (in reality the left control the nec and have already cut it to three). They had to run them concurrently though because they want a leader in place for the locals.

Reply 34

adam271