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Will Brexit be good for Britain?

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Original post by williamho
this so called 85% of the world trade outside the EU single largest market . Please could you provide the proof.
Is it by volume as in money ? or by head count ? or by trade agreement ?


It's by revenue and it's correct (a simple Google search of the annual pwc analysis will give you the report - I'm on mobile so can't link right now), by 2050 the EU will account for about 9% as China and India grow.


A no deal Brexit is 6-9%, 2% was the May deal.

HS2 is not 4% of GDP in the sense that it's not paid for in one year (30 years). It actually only costs about 2bn per year.
200 miles? I never knew that. Thanks.
Original post by ByEeek
200 miles? I never knew that. Thanks.

The Sea Treaty in the UN defines a nations economic zone as 200 miles (presumably down the middle where there’s not 400 miles between nations). While I’d be tempted to do a deal on lower quotas around east anglia and the south, there’s no real reason we as a nation surrounded by water should give them access in the bulk of the North Sea.
If you honestly believe the economy won't suffer after Brexit you're utterly deluded. It is accepted by even hard leavers that there will be some economic downfall. To some extent this is already happening, big companies are leaving. You can blame the delay all you want for that, however the key issue here is the fact that it will be an utter pain in the arse for them to manufacture in this country. It will cost them more to import things to make, it will then cost them more to export these products. You people literally can't see the wood for the trees.

Brexit is not a cost, it will be a loss. There is a difference. HS2 will cost money, Brexit will stop GDP growth. The two are not comparable in any way.

For what it's worth HS2 has caused suffering in the North, as people up there watch billions being pumped into a vanity project, while sitting on fifty year old trains. It's pathetic.
Also, a fall in the point is not, and has never been good for exports. Is it complete fallacy that it is perfectly fine we have a weak pound. It may be cheaper to export, but that does not account for the fact that most of our goods that we export, and made of imported products, which cost more to import. Higher import costs = higher production costs = higher price. Oh wait, our products are dirt cheap in Europe! It doesn't work like that. Something has to give, either costs to produce go down, which is usually job losses, which we are beginning to see, or the price of the product rises.
Original post by ColinDent
We're currently not that far behind normal pre brexit pound values, ordinarily it was somewhere in the 1.2's but due to a massive gamble on the result of the referendum rose to an artificially high level immediately prior to said referendum.

A full year before the vote it was 20 points higher than what it is now. I would hardly say that a year before the actual vote the pound rose to an 'artificially high level.' In April 2015, a month before the vote was even brought about into thought it was still about 20 points higher than what it is now. Again, hardly a gamble.

Or is this just another lie that leavers are telling themselves so that everything seems absolutely peachy?
Original post by imlikeahermit
A full year before the vote it was 20 points higher than what it is now. I would hardly say that a year before the actual vote the pound rose to an 'artificially high level.' In April 2015, a month before the vote was even brought about into thought it was still about 20 points higher than what it is now. Again, hardly a gamble.

Or is this just another lie that leavers are telling themselves so that everything seems absolutely peachy?

Oh I don't know, you tell me.

https://www.ofx.com/en-gb/forex-news/historical-exchange-rates/yearly-average-rates/
Original post by Rakas21
The Sea Treaty in the UN defines a nations economic zone as 200 miles (presumably down the middle where there’s not 400 miles between nations). While I’d be tempted to do a deal on lower quotas around east anglia and the south, there’s no real reason we as a nation surrounded by water should give them access in the bulk of the North Sea.


Agreed. The difficulty comes given that 90% of what we catch in the North Sea is bought by the EU. You might say it is a buyers market.
Original post by ColinDent

I don't see your point. I'd still argue it's not all peachy. We're 20 points down, like I previously said. Thats shambolic.
Original post by Rakas21
The Sea Treaty in the UN defines a nations economic zone as 200 miles (presumably down the middle where there’s not 400 miles between nations). While I’d be tempted to do a deal on lower quotas around east anglia and the south, there’s no real reason we as a nation surrounded by water should give them access in the bulk of the North Sea.

Didnt support Brexit one bit - but seems ridiculous to hold the UK’s economic zone to ransom when we are supposed to be leaving the union??
Original post by imlikeahermit
I don't see your point. I'd still argue it's not all peachy. We're 20 points down, like I previously said. Thats shambolic.


Try the 10 year option, the pound had been artificially high that year.
Reply 51
Avatar for DJKL
DJKL
17
"The forecast assumes “an orderly exit from the European Union at the end of January”, which feels like a safe bet “followed by a gradual transition to a new economic relationship” which doesn’t.

If they stick to their all agreed by July-August 2020, all ratified by say Nov 2020, that is a bit of a push to believe, the current timetable will result in a very bare bones agreement over very few sectors and a crash out for fairly significant tranches of the UK economy, remember the way it now works, what we agree this year is what we agree, the areas we do not agree in that timetable leap onto WTO come 31 December, and it is not the tariffs that are the danger, it is conformity assessments, recognition of cross border standards and their policing , deciding place of origin re assemblies with multiple components etc etc- another accountant for a UK manufacturer was only today posting on Accounting Web about tearing his hair out re this last point and still no guidance from HMG.
(edited 4 years ago)
Original post by imlikeahermit
I don't see your point. I'd still argue it's not all peachy. We're 20 points down, like I previously said. Thats shambolic.

Sterling actually traded as low as 1.32 to the dollar in Feb 16 but was generally in the 1.40-1.45 range from Jan-April. We hit 1.43 in March 18 before the transition negotiations when all looked well so I suspect that if a deal is achieved we will hit a similar level late in the year.
Original post by Rakas21
Sterling actually traded as low as 1.32 to the dollar in Feb 16 but was generally in the 1.40-1.45 range from Jan-April. We hit 1.43 in March 18 before the transition negotiations when all looked well so I suspect that if a deal is achieved we will hit a similar level late in the year.

Please do not use facts on this forum.
Reply 54
Avatar for DSilva
DSilva
12
Original post by ColinDent
Try the 10 year option, the pound had been artificially high that year.

In what sense?
Original post by DSilva
In what sense?

It was overvalued, regardez.


https://fullfact.org/economy/exchange-rates-and-imf/
Original post by BlueIndigoViolet
Not by any stretch in imagination but..... blue passports am i right or am i right?

It won't be the end of the world, but does come with economic losses certainly in the long term


I disagree there, I believe a slight economic loss at the begging but that’s it and then it will go up again, as long as we can stop a recession.
lets find out, thats all we can do now
No. The bank of England’s latest no deal guidance is from September and suggests a 5.5% impact on GDP (a downgrade from its initial prediction of 8%).

The May deal was 1.8%, the Boris deal is 3.5%.

(all relative to forecast growth out to 2030)

HS2 will indeed take 13 years to build but the way it’s financed means that it’s paid for over 30 years.
(edited 4 years ago)
Yeah, King has been relatively optimistic regarding Brexit (albeit like most of the establishment opposed to No Deal). His book 'The End of Alchemy' is on my 'to buy' list.

Although Carney is instinctively a Remainer he gets far too much hate. As head of the BOE they are obligated by the treasury to produce scenario based forecasts and can't really make many assumptions, there is very little he can personally do to influence these forecasts or refuse to produce them.

Perhaps a bit early to judge given that global trade actually declined in 2019 and that EU manufacturing (including the UK) has been at or below recession levels (largely an impact of the US-China trade war crushing demand in the sector).

That said the early stages of trade agreements can produce large short term effects, in some cases it becomes more economical to repatriate production if the tariff or regulatory barriers were large enough before. We'll need to take several years to properly evaluate.

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