2020 US Primary Season

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If, as I suspect they are going to do, the DNC hierarchy find a way of cheating Bernie again, when when Trump wins I can see it leading to a split in the party and a new third way socialist party emerging from the Dems.
There is no way they will put up with it again. They have seen their expectations rise too far. As I said, it will lead to violence. With a bit of luck though they will copy BLMs tactics and burn their own sh1t down.
I wouldn't want to live in San Francisco come November.

Reply 81

Rakas21

Original post by Fullofsurprises

Sanders is still polling well ahead of them for Super Tues, so it's far more likely to be Sanders-vs-Biden, I just can't see Bloomberg making serious headway, despite his endless money well.

I was referring to the end of the process. There is zero chance that the DNC will nominate Sanders if he’s not over the line.

Reply 82

Fullofsurprises

Original post by Rakas21

I was referring to the end of the process. There is zero chance that the DNC will nominate Sanders if he’s not over the line.

Oh OK. I think there's still a good chance he will make it to the Conference with a plurality, but we'll see tomorrow what happens. Perhaps Bloomberg's money will get him further in the big vote and Joe Biden will be seen as a safe bet amongst many suburban Dems.

Reply 83

Rakas21

Original post by Fullofsurprises

He will definitely have a plurality but he will also definitely not hit the 1990 delegates he needs. Current polling has him around 1600 according to 538 but now Buttigieg has dropped Sanders May not end up winning Utah, Texas, Wisconsin or Massechutis as currently forecast.

Reply 84

Fullofsurprises

Original post by Rakas21

Yes, he's going to struggle in Texas but I'm surprised if he doesn't have a great chance in a rustbelt state like Wisconsin, or Mass. which also of course has lots of post-industry type communities. Anyway, we'll see shortly! Quite excited.

Reply 85

fallen_acorns

Disapointed pete has gone. Clears the path a little bit more for Biden.

I don't really get people on the right of poltiics in the UK, who hate Bernie.. His practical policies are hardly far-left by UK standards. Gun control, A nationalised health service, abortion, minimum wage, maternity leave etc. they are hardly far-left possitions in the UK, in fact they are pretty standard tory policy. Not to mention that given the way US politics work, like with trump, his vision will be watered down and most of his more radical ideas will never get off the ground once hes in in office.

I get that hes jumped a bit on the identity-politics bandwagon over the past few years, but I think (as with Corbyn) that's more of a means to an end for people like him. I think he sees it as a vote winging thing to say, rather than an idea he really supports.. in the same way that various center-right leaders throw out far-right talking points every now and again, just to keep the fringes in line.

For me, if 4 years of bernie leads to a better healthcare solution and a bit more wealth-equality, then I'm all for giving hm a go.

I'd much rather have someone with a vision and an actual passionate direction to take the country in, than biden - an old, incoherent political manikin.. or bloomberg, who should by all acounts be a republican candidate, and who seems to desire beating trump more than any actual poltiical convictions.

Reply 86

Rakas21

Original post by Fullofsurprises

He’s ahead in all three but Buttigieg’s polling exceeded his majority.

Reply 87

Sabertooth

Original post by fallen_acorns

For me, if 4 years of bernie leads to a better healthcare solution and a bit more wealth-equality, then I'm all for giving hm a go.

Why would it?

He has a terrible record on voting, getting people to support his bills, and just all round failed to do anything at all despite serving for so many years.

Sanders is all talk.

Reply 88

fallen_acorns

Original post by Sabertooth

Why would it?

He has a terrible record on voting, getting people to support his bills, and just all round failed to do anything at all despite serving for so many years.

Sanders is all talk.

Who do you support in the race?

Reply 89

Sabertooth

Original post by fallen_acorns

Who do you support in the race?

Klobuchar is my favorite but I know she'll probably drop out after tomorrow. Compare her record to Sanders' - no contest.

Reply 90

fallen_acorns

Original post by Sabertooth

Klobuchar is my favorite but I know she'll probably drop out after tomorrow. Compare her record to Sanders' - no contest.

after she drops out, who then? If it does come down to sanders, Biden or Bloomberg.

Reply 91

Sabertooth

Original post by fallen_acorns

after she drops out, who then? If it does come down to sanders, Biden or Bloomberg.

Biden.

Reply 92

DSilva

Original post by fallen_acorns

There is still a cold war hangover in the west and right have very successfully taken advantage of it to argue that even moderately centre left policies are communist.

Reply 93

fallen_acorns

Original post by Sabertooth

Biden.

Do you think he can beat trump though? I Know he polls well against him at present, but put head to head, I can't seem him debating trump and looking good. Trump is not exactly a genius but he can talk, crack jokes and play an audiance.. biden from all the clips I've seen of him looks like a confused old man who isn't quite sure what to say.

Reply 94

DSilva

Original post by fallen_acorns

Sanders is the better debater. Especially against Trump you need someone who can give it back and not be fazed by insults. Whereas Joe Biden will go on the defensive to try and make out he's not a socialist, Sanders would go on the attack.

(edited 4 years ago)

Reply 95

fallen_acorns

Original post by DSilva

I agree. I also don't think that the best candidate to take on trump is a middle of the road center-ground type. I think what we have seen in recent elections is that its the strong personalities and people with clear ideas/identity that are shining through, not the politician-for-life type who only occupy positions because it gets them votes. Sanders, love him or hate him, has a clear brand and a clear personality that is as strong and defined as trump. If they go against each other it will be two clear options both strongly voicing their position. If its Biden? For me it feels like it will be a re-run of trump/hillary. Trump eats centerist/poltiical-speak types for breakfast.. normal people just gravitate to passionate and honest(Trump is honest in the sense that he thinks hes telling the truth/doing the right thing, even if hes clearly not.. hes that deluded that I do think most of the time he believes his own bull****, which makes him appear honest) like trump or sanders.

I think its why corbyn over-achieved against may.. it was a strong personality vs a career-politican-type, and he took labours disadvantaged state and did far better than he should have. But against boris that factor didn't come into play, you had two big personalities clashing against each other.

Reply 96

Napp

Original post by fallen_acorns

This rather seems like the wrong question (even if it is a very important one) as its not really in doubt that Sanders can run his mouth at a level to rival Trump, unlike the rest of them, the bigger question is would he actually be any good for America if he did manage to pip the tangerine to the WH. I fear the answer is decidedly no.

Reply 97

Rakas21

As alluded to today is Super Tuesday which means that 14 states are headed to the polls. On the Democrat side unfortunately the withdrawal of Buttigieg, Steyer and Klobechaeur means polling in several states is now worthless (they had 10-20% of the vote collectively depending on the state) however below i shall list the states in play and also the likely winner where one candidate was 10% or more ahead in average polling (538).

California - Likely Sanders
Colorado - Likely Sanders
Utah - Likely Bloomberg or Biden
Texas - Likely Biden
Oklahoma - Likely Biden
Arkansas - Likely Biden or Bloomberg
Tennessee - Likely Biden
Alabama - Safe Biden
Virginia - Safe Biden win
North Carolina - Safe Biden win
Minnesota - Likely Sanders
Maine - Likely Sanders or Bloomberg
Massachusetts - Toss Up - Too unclear to call
Vermont - Safe Sanders win

Fairly mixed delegate picture for Biden and Sanders.

Dedicated thread is linked below with results likely in the early hours.

https://www.thestudentroom.co.uk/showthread.php?t=6382656

Reply 98

Stiff Little Fingers

So, while no-one is likely to get over the 1991 delegate mark, highly likely that Biden gets the nomination so congrats to Trump on his re-election, because clearly the DNC establishment have learnt nothing from 2016

Reply 99

Fullofsurprises

Original post by Rakas21

Your forecasts were pretty good!

I'm surprised how well Biden did, but it looks like centrist Dems simply went for him because they were scared of the Bern.